BOC system

[rockyman]

[rockyman]

The Caribbean has been exceedingly favorable vs. climatology:

[ROCK]

with all that convection down there I cant see it being anything other than favorable.

all hail the NAM!!

[rockyman]

GFS is running...and it intializes with a 1012 low off Nicaragua:

[Nimbus]

ULL have been known to create an outflow channel to help ventilate a mature TC....what I have seen

As WXman57 explained this last year. The ULL or TUTT fans the convection up with its shear. Usually once the ULL moves away the convection dies down, other times the shear just completely blows any low level feature out.

There are scenarios with a 0 to5 percent possibility that allow an upper level circulation to start a system by creating some convective lift near a surface low then act to ventilate the system as it moves away.

There is also the possibility that the ULL over Florida will lift out and leave a surface feature in the western Caribbean. I haven't seen anything in the official NHC updates that would support such a scenario yet though.

[ROCK]

I dont recall the year but I specifically remember a LLC forming outside a ULL around the FL panhandle one year...it was an interesting storm to track as it didnt get going until the ULL had lifted out far enough....

[lrak]

Just East of Jamaica looks interesting.

[tailgater]

Just East of Jamaica looks interesting.

I starting to see what I think is a LLC trying to form just south of the Isle of Youth. 19.4N and 84W check it out I could beseeing things but I don't think so.

[lrak]

Yes I see some turning, just like over by Jamiaca. When is something going to give? Are we waiting for that big code yellow to come through?

[Weatherfreak000]

I would give this region the code yellow nod at 2PM

[KWT]

I can see broad turning, nothing that really catches my eye but there is convection developing with broad turning, so could well see a yellow here with this one again I agree.

[KatDaddy]

The NW Caribbean convection just caught my eye as well as the Central Caribbean convection and the area near the Leeward Islands.

[lebron23]

12z CMC landfall northern mexico

[ROCK]

Just East of Jamaica looks interesting.

I starting to see what I think is a LLC trying to form just south of the Isle of Youth. 19.4N and 84W check it out I could beseeing things but I don't think so.

I agree with you accessment. I also so mid level rotation to the north of your circle.....speed up the 1KM loop...nothing at the surface but two mid level rotations....

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[HouTXmetro]

Landfall of what? we don't have system to track.

[xcool22]

so true no system to track plz dnot asking about Landfall thanks

[Ivanhater]

so true no system to track plz dnot asking about Landfall thanks

The post referred to the Canadian model showing the landfall of a tropical system, which it does. No problem with that post.

[xcool22]

oh

[Dean4Storms]

All the obs in the western Carib area are reporting E to SE winds, I see no evidence of a LLC or one forming so far. Plus you can see numerous outflows racing out in various directions. There does appear to me some mid level turning but unless convection sustains it will go poof this evening.

[Ivanhater]

Great outflow on the Central Caribbean wave