Strong wave near Leeward Islands - Is Invest 97L

[wxman57]

You're missing the other hurricane the DGEX model brings to the upper Texas coast a few days before the hit on Miami. From what I'm reading on the website, it's an experimental model that may incorporate the ETA.

[cycloneye]

Those who are posting the DMEX model, can you explain if this is a GFS ensemble,or what because many members for sure have not seen this one as we know the traditional ones like GFS,CMC,NOGAPS,UKMET,ECMWF and NAM.

[Ivanhater]

From what I've heard, the DGEX is a continuation of the NAM(AFTER 84 HOURS), based on GFS conditions...

[xcool22]

wxman57 .how good DGEX model ????

[BigA]

12Z WRF starts to develop this north of Hispanola in 3 days.

http://weather.myfoxtampabay.com/maps/W ... f_slp.html

[cycloneye]

For those who want to see what is going on in the Leewards,Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico as heavy rains and gusty winds have been moving thru the islands go here

[SFLcane]

[weatherwindow]

TAFB basically takes this wave through PR, then skims north side of DR, and then into SE Bahamas in 72 hours. Bahamas/SFL should be paying attention. This system reminds me of 1995 Erin with regards to track and time of year only.

TAFB 24 Hour:

TAFB 48 Hour:

TAFB 72 Hour:

the development of erin 95 may be a very apt analog...in addition to time of year, erin's circulation was first closed off, after several recon trys, just west of the first planned recon(21n71.5w) on the soon to be invest...some other fits include multiple vort maxs along the wave and the strong ridge progged by the models...good possibility of something similiar evolving, however, if memory serves, the pressure falls assoc w/ the july 95 wave were on the order of 4-5 mb in the islands...more vigorous wave...good memory, blown

[Gustywind]

Right now Guadeloupe and Martinica requiered an yellow alert at 5PM for a risk of strong showers and tstorms.
http://www.meteo.gp/index.php?page=Incl ... e=spe_gene

[KWT]

The WRF is actually an interesting solution because it does have that dual low set-up though the northern side does eventually become the one that develops. IMO that may not be a bad solution though I think it'd take a little long then that to get going myself.

[Ivanhater]

18Z GFS PARA..96 hours

[Ivanhater]

120 hours

[KWT]

A bit stronger on this run from the looks of things when compared with the 12z run and it looks like getting towards C.Gulf. In such a situation it needs close watching...

[Wx_Warrior]

gfs para 18z 138h

[Ivanhater]

[Ivanhater]

162

[Wx_Warrior]

162h

[Ivanhater]

Ridge breaks down

[KWT]

Looks like the GFS goes for a late developer in the Gulf...which does make a certain amount of sense but on the track the GFS takes it on I wouldn't be surprised if it developed a little to the east of what the GFS thinks.

[Wx_Warrior]

Ivan, you give up on your Caribbean "soup"?