BOC system

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Ivanhater
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Re: Western Caribbean system

#221 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Jul 18, 2010 6:32 pm

000
ABNT20 KNHC 182330
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 18 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH SURFACE
PRESSURES HAVE FALLEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE AREA...ANY DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS DISTURBANCE IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD AFFECT THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...HAITI...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A
SURFACE CIRCULATION IN THIS AREA AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS
DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

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Re: Central Caribbean system-Code Yellow

#222 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Jul 18, 2010 6:49 pm

Anticyclone over this wave

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#223 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sun Jul 18, 2010 6:53 pm

I actually love the % of development chances that the NHC uses now. Yea, they can be way off the mark, but it does add some excitement to watching the tropics.
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Re: Central Caribbean system-Code Yellow

#224 Postby srainhoutx » Sun Jul 18, 2010 7:14 pm

Good candidate for an Invest as well IMO. Remember the para GFS has suggested this would be the 'stronger' of the two.
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Re: Central Caribbean system-Code Yellow

#225 Postby Ptarmigan » Sun Jul 18, 2010 7:20 pm

The tropics are heating up again. I think something could develop towards the end of the week to next week.
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Re: Central Caribbean system-Code Yellow

#226 Postby Nimbus » Sun Jul 18, 2010 7:40 pm

WXman57 mentioned that the Caribbean was juicy ripe with high moisture content earlier today and the NHC concurs.
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Re: Central Caribbean system-Code Yellow

#227 Postby ROCK » Sun Jul 18, 2010 7:43 pm

was this the one slated for the BOC ala Alex?
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Re: Central Caribbean system-Code Yellow

#228 Postby andyis » Sun Jul 18, 2010 9:28 pm

Looks like some spin starting just to the southwest of Jamaica.
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Re: Central Caribbean system-Code Yellow

#229 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Jul 18, 2010 9:51 pm

00z Nam

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Re: Central Caribbean system-Code Yellow

#230 Postby LaBreeze » Sun Jul 18, 2010 10:13 pm

More dry air heading west from Africa ~ should keep a great deal of the moisture out of the picture for a short while??
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Re: Central Caribbean system-Code Yellow

#231 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Jul 18, 2010 10:24 pm

Looks like we have a closed low

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Re: Central Caribbean system-Code Yellow

#232 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 18, 2010 10:26 pm

Yes,very clear the low on the ASCAT pass but the location is SW of the main convection area.
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Re: Central Caribbean system-Code Yellow

#233 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Jul 18, 2010 10:49 pm

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Re: Central Caribbean system-Code Yellow

#234 Postby Wx_Warrior » Sun Jul 18, 2010 11:02 pm

gfs para rolling

48H

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Re: Central Caribbean system-Code Yellow

#235 Postby Wx_Warrior » Sun Jul 18, 2010 11:07 pm

72h

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Re: Central Caribbean system-Code Yellow

#236 Postby Wx_Warrior » Sun Jul 18, 2010 11:13 pm

96h

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Re: Central Caribbean system-Code Yellow

#237 Postby Wx_Warrior » Sun Jul 18, 2010 11:24 pm

132h

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Re: Central Caribbean system-Code Yellow

#238 Postby ROCK » Sun Jul 18, 2010 11:45 pm

not much to look at....from the GFS....
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Re: Central Caribbean system-Code Yellow

#239 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Jul 19, 2010 12:43 am

499
ABNT20 KNHC 190542
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON JUL 19 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH. SURFACE PRESSURES HAVE FALLEN OVER THIS AREA...AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A MORE CONCENTRATED JUST NORTH OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
AND ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DISTURBANCE COULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
HAITI...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE
MORE CONCENTRATED SOUTH OF JAMAICA...THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO SIGNS
OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION IN THIS AREA. HOWEVER...SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS STILL POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES
GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

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Re: Central Caribbean system-Code Yellow

#240 Postby SouthFloridawx » Mon Jul 19, 2010 12:46 am

Though, gfs has been hinting a nudge there for a couple of days now. Nothing really significant shows, but it's always good to keep an eye out when it's showing some lower pressures... It's that time of the year... The other models are also showing some lowered pressures in about the same area, and around the same time frame... Give or take a day or two.
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