Strong wave near Leeward Islands - Is Invest 97L

[ROCK]

one thing is for sure there is plenty of fuel out there....

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 182330
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 18 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH SURFACE
PRESSURES HAVE FALLEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE AREA...ANY DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS DISTURBANCE IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD AFFECT THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...HAITI...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 182353
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUL 18 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 61W S OF
19N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ENCOMPASSES THE
WAVE AXIS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. A LARGE AREA OF DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE ALSO ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE SEEN IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-22N BETWEEN 54W-67W. GUSTY WINDS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD AFFECT
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

$$

GARCIA

[MGC]

Still too much shear across the Caribbean area......doubt anything becomes of this in the short term......MGC

[wxman57]

When does the next Euro model come out?

-Andrew92

Not until around 2:30 to 3am CDT.

[rockyman]

Looking at the latest IR loop, it looks like the TUTT is retreating/filling...and new convection is beginning to pop near our wave axis...it'll be interesting to see if this new batch of convection can avoid a "haircut"

[artist]

When does the next Euro model come out?

-Andrew92

Not until around 2:30 to 3am CDT.

wxman, do you think this will send lots of rain this way for the coming weekend? Have my nieces here and wondering what next weekend will be like. Thanks in advance and for all you do here.

[ROCK]

When does the next Euro model come out?

-Andrew92

Not until around 2:30 to 3am CDT.

we get it around 1:45am here.....or at least I do...It might latch on tonight with these invests....

[stormchazer]

I am a bit surprised this has not been tagged an Invest. It is disorganized sure but satellite appearances have improved and the TWO said pressures were falling slightly. I guess the lack of convection is the culprit.

[Blown Away]

Convection waning a little but there is nice cyclonic turning with this wave. This is the best this wave has looked so far!

[hurricaneCW]

I didn't notice the spin before until some of the convection died down, but it's clearly there. The same goes for the new wave that existed Africa: Strong structure, lack of convection. A little convection could make a huge difference.

[Blown Away]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-rb.html
I've had enough waiting for the NHC to tag this as an Invest. Run the loop and I see a circulation near 18.5N/62W. The convection is popping around it, come on what else do they need!

[Ivanhater]

They usually like to tag these invest in the early morning hours, so that would be my guess... I wish there was some kid of standard fr tagging. I have seen some tagged with no hope and hardly anything there and some like this one not tagged. But again, I think early in the morning it will be tagged...

[rockyman]

One thing I've noticed...if the circulation is only evident AFTER the convection begins waning, it's likely a mid-level vortex, and the "circulation" is simply the cloud debris left after the storms collapse.

[cycloneye]

Closeup view of the circulation.

[TexasF6]

Will this entity take a Katrina type path over Florida???? Which model was that showing the passage over Florida?

[Ivanhater]

00z Nam

[Wx_Warrior]

gfs para 0z 96h

[ROCK]

doesnt close it off at all....sees it though...