ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[Blown Away]

Blown Away,

I'm looking in the same general area as you (19.8 and 62.5).
I think we have a developing system as we speak. Could be a TD later tonight.

Yeah could be near 19.8, it's hard to tell and I think the circulation is still very broad. I'm not sure how much of the current convection development is from ULL interaction or actual development?

[KWT]

I'd imagine they are one and the same thing BA, probably the ULL is enhancing the TW but sometimes if that can keep going for long enough it'll allow the system to develop a lopsided set-up and develop.

We shall have to wait and see what happens when the present divergent set-up aloft eases off.

[Vortmax1]

Short term development is not promising.
The vorticity is fairly pathetic:

[Blown Away]

Climatology wants to turn 97L east of SFL and go to the Carolinas.

[CourierPR]

Climatology wants to turn 97L east of SFL and go to the Carolinas.

Climatology is not a steering current. The prevailing river of air in the upper atmosphere would steer any system approaching Florida.

edited by vbhoutex to correct quote box

[Hugo1989]

The pressures continue to fall and not make landfall in the case of Puerto Rico.. We could have code orange for 2:00.

[Vortmax1]

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT SUN 18 JULY 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z JULY 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-048

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST NEAR 21.0N 71.5W AT 20/1800Z. BEGIN
6-HRLY FIXES AT 21/0600Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

[tgenius]

Is this the system that my mother in law is saying will dump alot of rain on Miami on Friday?

[HurrMark]

I wouldn't expect to see anything develop out of this before Wednesday or Thursday.

[Blown Away]

Is this the system that my mother in law is saying will dump alot of rain on Miami on Friday?

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
335 AM EDT MON JUL 19 2010

.DISCUSSION...

WED-MON...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE FROM MODEL RUNS 24 HOURS AGO
WHICH SHOW DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH PROVIDING A
DEEP ONSHORE FLOW BUT STILL TAPPING SUBSIDENT AIR OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WED-THU. HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST THESE TWO DAYS
EXCEPT IN THE SOUTH WHERE CLOUD LINES OFF THE BAHAMAS SHOULD BRING
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.

MOISTENING IS STILL INDICATED FOR LATE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND
AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF.
THIS SHOULD RAISE POPS TO 20-30 PERCENT FRI WITH THE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER CHANCES IN THE SOUTH. OVER THE WEEKEND MOS POPS CONTINUE
AROUND 40 PERCENT AREAWIDE AND SEE NO REASON TO DIFFER AT THIS
TIME...THOUGH WOULD EXPECT VALUES TO DIMINISH SOME BY SUN/MON AS
THE WAVE PULLS FARTHER AWAY.

Sorry, you will have to tell your mother-in-law she was right!

[boca]

Are their any buoys out there that have a west wind yet.It looks like the convection is being enhanced by the ULL to the north of the system still.

[HURAKAN]

No west wind yet

[HURAKAN]

Radar

[boca]

I don't think shear is a problem for 97L.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... oom=&time=

[Blown Away]

97L is blasting through the ULL in the last few frames. It appears to my amateur eye that ULL is rapidly weakening.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

[clfenwi]

12Z best track:

AL, 97, 2010071912, , BEST, 0, 192N, 650W, 25, 1014

[HURAKAN]

I don't think shear is a problem for 97L.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... oom=&time=

It's moving against 30 knots

[Vortmax1]

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
637 AM EDT MON JUL 19 2010

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. THE MODELS
SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS...IN THIS PROCESS GRADUALLY DISPLACING A TUTT
LOW THAT MEANDERS TO THE NORTH. THE TROUGH IS FAIRLY
DEEP...REFLECTING AT MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS
FEATURE...IN INTERACTION WITH THE ITCZ AND PERTURBATIONS IN THE
LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES...FAVORS/SUSTAINS A WET/MOIST PATTERN ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS...WITH PWS OF 50-70MM DOMINATING
THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN ALOFT IS TO CHANGE...THE MOISTURE
IS TO PERSIST UNTIL THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY AS ANOTHER TUTT...IN THE
FORM OF AN INVERTED TROUGH...IS TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
LATER THIS WEEK. CONVERGENCE TO THE WEST OF THE INBOUND TUTT IS TO
PROVIDE MUCH NEEDED RELIEF FROM THE PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINS. MODELS
SEEM TO COINCIDE THAT MOST ACTIVE/INTENSE CONVECTION IS TO
CONTINUE BUILDING THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY LESS
INTENSE/ACTIVE PATTERN DURING THE TRANSITION PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY
TO THURSDAY.

THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MODELS SHOW FAVORABLE MJO CONDITIONS FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. THE MORE RELIABLE CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM
INDICATES THAT BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WE ARE TO TRANSITION
TO A WEAK CONVERGENT/NEUTRAL PATTERN...WHICH IS TO LAST FOR TEN
DAYS...AND TRANSITIONING AGAIN TO A DIVERGENT PATTERN ALOFT BY THE
FIRST WEEK IN AUGUST.

[Ivanhater]

I was right..they sure do like to tag these invests in the early morning hours

Good morning guys!

[Cyclone1]

Okay, so it really is tagged then. Wasn't sure if it was a pain-pill hallucination or not.