WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTHU (1003/04W)

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 616
WTPQ21 RJTD 190300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190300UTC 14.6N 117.2E FAIR
MOVE WSW 06KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 200300UTC 15.8N 114.8E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FOUR) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 15.3N 118.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3N 118.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 16.2N 117.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 17.3N 116.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 18.5N 115.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 19.8N 114.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 22.1N 113.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 24.8N 112.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 27.2N 111.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 15.5N 117.8E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 04W (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
190000Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z, 191500Z, 192100Z AND
200300Z.//
NNNN

[Typhoon10]

HKO now has it on their website.

http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/currwx/tc_pos.htm

PS, how do I copy and paste pictures into posts like all you others do?

[senorpepr]

PS, how do I copy and paste pictures into posts like all you others do?

Paste the URL to this image. Before the address put [img] and after put [/img].

Code: Select all

[img]http://www.storm2k.org/weather//images/tropical/plotsystemforecast_nt_pz_pa_2010_active_invests_fulltropics_merc_640x280_640_480.jpg[/img]

WTPQ21 RJTD 190600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190600UTC 14.7N 117.0E FAIR
MOVE WSW 06KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 200600UTC 16.1N 114.8E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =



Still depression strength... should start gaining soon, though...

[Typhoon10]

PS, how do I copy and paste pictures into posts like all you others do?

Paste the URL to this image. Before the address put [img] and after put [/img].

Code: Select all

[img]http://www.storm2k.org/weather//images/tropical/plotsystemforecast_nt_pz_pa_2010_active_invests_fulltropics_merc_640x280_640_480.jpg[/img]

WTPQ21 RJTD 190600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190600UTC 14.7N 117.0E FAIR
MOVE WSW 06KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 200600UTC 16.1N 114.8E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =



Still depression strength... should start gaining soon, though...

Thanks for that senor. I cant see this getting Typhoon strength really. What do you think?

[senorpepr]

Thanks for that senor. I cant see this getting Typhoon strength really. What do you think?

Honestly, since it hasn't already picked up strength thus far, I think the change of typhoon strength are rather minimal. Considering the current shear over 04W and that it's not expected to subside for another 12-24 hours or so, I'm thinking we may get up to a severe tropical storm, but typhoon strength, in my opinion, is unlikely.

[KWT]

Yeah I agree, I said 55-60kts and I see no reason why it can't get to that strength.

Also yet again the JWTC has had the track too far east...thats now something like 6-7 storms in the last 45 days that have all been west of track...

[Typhoon10]

Yeah I agree, I said 55-60kts and I see no reason why it can't get to that strength.

Also yet again the JWTC has had the track too far east...thats now something like 6-7 storms in the last 45 days that have all been west of track...

Yes, looking at the tracks now, will head somewhere inbetween Hong Kong and Hainan Island again.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Yeah I agree, I said 55-60kts and I see no reason why it can't get to that strength.

Also yet again the JWTC has had the track too far east...thats now something like 6-7 storms in the last 45 days that have all been west of track...

Yup, it's a common occurrence out here, on another forum we call it the "West Shift." Conson and Fengshen (from a couple years back) are perfect examples of this.

Senorpepr the UW charts don't seem to suggest there's any shear over the system at the moment but something has been hampering it over the last 24 hours.

SSTs, OHC, shear, water vapour image and outflow all seem promising for intensification and given the burst in intensity Conson put on last week I wouldn't rule out a TY.

[senorpepr]

Yup, it's a common occurrence out here, on another forum we call it the "West Shift." Conson and Fengshen (from a couple years back) are perfect examples of this.

Senorpepr the UW charts don't seem to suggest there's any shear over the system at the moment but something has been hampering it over the last 24 hours.

SSTs, OHC, shear, water vapour image and outflow all seem promising for intensification and given the burst in intensity Conson put on last week I wouldn't rule out a TY.

You're absolutely right... I guess I hadn't had my morning coffee yet. Currently, the shear is pretty low. Over the past day or so it has been rather high. It was around 30 kt but that area has pushed westward, opening the window for 04W.

[P.K.]

JMA up to T2.5 at 12Z. I would expect this to be named in about 45 min.

[Chacor]

TCNA21 RJTD 191200
CCAA 19120 47644 NAMELESS 03157 11166 13236 225// 93106=

[senorpepr]

WTPQ21 RJTD 191200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1003 CHANTHU (1003) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 191200UTC 15.7N 116.6E FAIR
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 100NM
FORECAST
24HF 201200UTC 17.6N 114.3E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 211200UTC 19.4N 112.7E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 221200UTC 20.8N 111.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

[Chacor]

Upgraded to TS Chanthu, peak forecast 60 knots in 48h.

[Chacor]

Have PAGASA started warning on this yet?

[senorpepr]

Have PAGASA started warning on this yet?

I'm not sure, their website doesn't play nice to the network at work, so I'm getting the "operation timed out" message. http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/

[Chacor]

TD Caloy at 4pm was the last update.

[Macrocane]

And the WPAC got its 3rd named storm before August, I guess it's just a question of time before it gets its first major typhoon.

[cycloneye]

WTPN31 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FOUR) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 15.7N 116.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7N 116.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 16.5N 115.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 17.5N 114.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 18.6N 113.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 19.8N 112.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 22.3N 111.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 25.0N 110.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 15.9N 115.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 04W (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 191200Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z, 200300Z, 200900Z AND
201500Z.//
NNNN