ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - MODELS

[RachelAnna]

Looks to me that if 97L does develop the whole Gulf coast needs to keep an eye on it until its track becomes more certain. With models coming in everywhere from Florida to Mexico we can't be too careful! Does a 20% chance of development seem realistic or are our board experts thinking it is more or less favorable for development?

[Dean4Storms]

That's just it, how much more closer this system gets to Florida will be due to its development I believe and I think it is looking better myself.

[rockyman]

GFS Para...system begins to take shape in the Bahamas--54 hours:

[Ivanhater]

GFS Para 60 hours

[Ivanhater]

72 hours

[rockyman]

GFS Para weakens the low as it approaches the Florida Keys

[Ivanhater]

114

[rockyman]

GFS Para bringing the system up the eastern side of the Gomex...off the west Florida coastline

[Ivanhater]

GFS Para bringing the system up the eastern side of the Gomex...of the west Florida coastline

Still a ridge present

[rockyman]

GFS Para bringing the system up the eastern side of the Gomex...of the west Florida coastline

Still a ridge present

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... 0_114m.gif

Yes, I think the Peninsula is safe in this run. System pretty much washes out over the east central Gomex

[rockyman]

12z Canadian initialized:

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_fo ... bal_e.html

[Ivanhater]

Big bend region..although ridge still present, looks to be steered by the lower levels on this run

[boca]

Silly question whats the difference between the para GFS and the GFS and can I get a link please?

[rockyman]

This might be one of the rare cases where a stronger storm goes west, while a weaker storm goes north

[jlauderdal]

114

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... v_114m.gif

GFS is way to fast here with development and looks to far N, lets see how it fairs through cuba and once it can get to the golf.

[srainhoutx]

Silly question whats the difference between the para GFS and the GFS and can I get a link please?

The Parallel GFS is scheduled to become the Operational GFS on the 27th-28th of July I believe. Here is the link to the Para GFS...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... arib.shtml

[jlauderdal]

Big bend region..although ridge still present, looks to be steered by the lower levels on this run

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... v_132m.gif

yeah and when you see that doesnt make you feel real fuzzy about the modeling.

[vbhoutex]

12z Canadian initialized:

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_fo ... bal_e.html

Unless I am crazy(quiet in the peanut gallery!!)this shows 97L becoming a closed system between Jamaica and Cuba and heading W across the Yucatan and into the "Alex alley", another L coming in N of the Islands and into the Florida Straits, and another L over the Central Caribbean. Could get interesting.

[clfenwi]

Silly question whats the difference between the para GFS and the GFS and can I get a link please?

It's the experimental version of the GFS scheduled to become operational at the end of this month See http://www.weather.gov/os/notification/tin10-15gfs.txt The original launch date's been pushed back to 27 July 12Z.

(edited to fix link)

[Ivanhater]

12z Canadian initialized:

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_fo ... bal_e.html

Unless I am crazy(quiet in the peanut gallery!!)this shows 97L becoming a closed system between Jamaica and Cuba and heading W across the Yucatan and into the "Alex alley", another L coming in N of the Islands and into the Florida Straits, and another L over the Central Caribbean. Could get interesting.

David, so far the 12z Canadian is only out to 36 hours