ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - MODELS

[Ivanhater]

12z Canadian out to 84 hours and jumps on board..strengthening through the Florida straits

[Ivanhater]

12z Canadian says strengthening cyclone into Mississippi

[rockyman]

Sweating:

[KWT]

I'm pretty confident the GFS is upto its usual recurve as early as possible stuff again...

The CMC IMO looks pretty good, the system doesn't really develop till its in the Gulf due to land interaction.

[vbhoutex]

12z Canadian initialized:

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_fo ... bal_e.html

Unless I am crazy(quiet in the peanut gallery!!)this shows 97L becoming a closed system between Jamaica and Cuba and heading W across the Yucatan and into the "Alex alley", another L coming in N of the Islands and into the Florida Straits, and another L over the Central Caribbean. Could get interesting.

David, so far the 12z Canadian is only out to 36 hours

I used the 0Z animation. That would explain how it takes it all the way to Mexico I guess.

[rockyman]

The Canadian takes the system along the spine of Cuba, then up to the North Central Gulf Coast, with moderate strengthening. If the system stays north of Cuba, we could have a more potent system.

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_fo ... 12_....jpg

[KWT]

Yeah though from the looks of things the CMC track taking it through the western islands may not be a bad call in the end...

[Ivanhater]

12z Canadian



Full loop

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[lostsole]

Well Ivan Hater, from that model, we better get our hazmat suits and bottled water now!

[Ivanhater]

12z HWRF or GFDL have not run...not sure why

[KWT]

They may possibly be only running it for 2 runs a day possibly, or maybe they are thinking of deactivating it who knows?

[clfenwi]

It has seemed to me in the past that they only run GFDL/HWRF three times a day for invests with the 06Z spot being vacant. Could be the case that with 06Z being run the 12Z spot is the downtime spot and we'll see the 18Z and 0Z runs. Pure speculation on my part, though.

[HurrMark]

12z Canadian

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/cmc/20 ... /slp21.png

Full loop

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Wow, the CMC forecasting a landfall in NO. Didn't see that coming...

[Ivanhater]

Not New Orleans, Mississippi/Alabama area...The GFS and Euro upper air pattern are similar.

[cycloneye]

18z Tropical Models

Code: Select all

260
WHXX01 KWBC 191819
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1819 UTC MON JUL 19 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972010) 20100719 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100719  1800   100720  0600   100720  1800   100721  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    19.2N  65.1W   20.2N  68.8W   21.5N  72.4W   22.0N  75.8W
BAMD    19.2N  65.1W   19.8N  67.0W   20.4N  68.9W   20.8N  70.6W
BAMM    19.2N  65.1W   19.9N  67.5W   20.5N  69.9W   20.7N  72.2W
LBAR    19.2N  65.1W   19.7N  67.6W   20.2N  70.5W   20.8N  73.5W
SHIP        25KTS          30KTS          36KTS          42KTS
DSHP        25KTS          30KTS          36KTS          42KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100721  1800   100722  1800   100723  1800   100724  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    22.4N  79.0W   22.4N  85.6W   22.9N  91.4W   23.7N  95.9W
BAMD    21.1N  72.2W   21.8N  75.4W   22.3N  79.0W   23.7N  82.8W
BAMM    20.8N  74.4W   21.0N  78.4W   21.7N  82.1W   23.0N  85.4W
LBAR    21.4N  76.8W   22.8N  83.2W   24.7N  89.0W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        48KTS          60KTS          73KTS          82KTS
DSHP        48KTS          34KTS          50KTS          56KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  19.2N LONCUR =  65.1W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =  12KT
LATM12 =  18.8N LONM12 =  62.7W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 =  13KT
LATM24 =  18.1N LONM24 =  60.1W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   75NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1014MB OUTPRS = 1017MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[Ivanhater]

12z Euro has a stronger reflection in the short term but loses it in the Gulf

72 hours



96 hours

[lebron23]

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_97.gif

[ROCK]

The EURO loses it in the GOM but if I am reading this correctly I see a mucho ridging to the north.....we saw this with the CMC and Alex....under doing the ridge, then again EURO tends to over do ridges......

[Ivanhater]

The EURO loses it in the GOM but if I am reading this correctly I see a mucho ridging to the north.....we saw this with the CMC and Alex....under doing the ridge, then again EURO tends to over do ridges......

Rock, the 12z Euro breaks the ridge down and slides east. Certainly not a Mexico/S Texas threat. Northern Gulf needs to watch this one for sure...busy week for us Rock

[Ivanhater]

Edit: 12z Euro sends 97L into Louisiana..this even as a weaker system, if it were stronger like the Canadian it would me similar. No monster high this go round to slam into Mexico...