ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[cycloneye]

Possible mission on Wednesday afternoon if needed.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0900 AM EDT MON 19 JULY 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z JULY 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-049

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST NEAR 21.0N 73.5W AT 21/1800Z. BEGIN
6-HRLY FIXES AT 22/0600Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

[canes101]

[clfenwi]

Dr Masters' note on 97L:

A tropical wave passing over the Virgin Islands this morning will bring heavy rain and possible flooding to Puerto Rico today. This wave was designated Invest 97L by NHC this morning. The wave is under about 20 knots of wind shear, due to strong upper-level westerly winds. The strong upper-level winds are associated with the counter-clockwise flow of air around an upper-level cold-cored low pressure system a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico. Satellite images of 97L show a moderate area of disorganized thunderstorms to the north of Puerto Rico, but no signs of a surface circulation, low-level spiral banding, or upper-level outflow. There is a large amount of dry air to the north of Puerto Rico that will interfere with development of 97L. As the wave progresses west to west-northwest through Wednesday, thunderstorm activity will increase, due to interaction with the upper low. The rains from these thunderstorms will bring the threat of flooding to the Dominican Republic on Tuesday and Haiti on Wednesday. The upper low will also bring high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots over the the wave through Wednesday. No development of the wave is likely until at least Wednesday, when the SHIPS model predicts shear will fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots. At that time, 97L will be over the eastern Bahamas and eastern Cuba. However, none of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. I expect 97L will enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week. NHC is giving 97L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to fly into 97L Tuesday afternoon, if necessary.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

If this develops at all, it looks like it will be a storm for the far western Florida panhanle westward (western gulf). The big bermuda high looks to build furhter west again and block off the eastern gulf from any possible recurve scenario from this system. Only 4-5 days from now does it start to retreat eastward again, but only to eastern gulf, which still protects west coast florida and the panhandle areas over the next 7 days.

So unless this moves painfully slow in the GOM and is still in the southern GOM at day 7 from now, this shouldn't be a threat for a west coast florida recurve within that taimeframe. After 7 days, its way too far out to predict where that High's western periphery will likely be.

[cycloneye]

clfenwi, I took out the link that you posted with the Jeff Masters discussion as it goes to a message board and our policy is to not allow links to other forums.

[Sanibel]

I see this as ULL interaction flaring. These types tended not to amount to much in the last few seasons.

[Gustywind]

LATEST

[Vortmax1]

[Gustywind]

Has continues to expand in size, convection flares up a bit right now...

[jlauderdal]

Has continues to expand in size, convection flares up a bit right now...

yeah and consolidation would be more in its favor for development, check back on weds to see how its going

[KWT]

Looks like the upper support that was propping up the convection, esp further north away from the tropical wave has decreased.

Whilst development isn't a certainty this one does have a shot down the line I feel in the Gulf, maybe a Claudette 09 type system but a little to the west...

[RainWind]

The shear monster seems to be working somewhat on this, yes? Definitely don't see anything forming anytime soon! I think for now I will keep an eye on the wave in the eastern Gulf. May send rain my way Wednesday, my yard would say "Thanks".

[KWT]

I think the shear weakening is actually the problem for this system since it means the whole northern end is poofing away as the upper support ebbs away from it. Remember the wave itself only just extents north of the islands, 97L is right on the top end of the wave.

Personally I see no development till Gulf given where it is right now and the likelyhood of land interaction.

[Gustywind]

Has continues to expand in size, convection flares up a bit right now...

yeah and consolidation would be more in its favor for development, check back on weds to see how its going

Absolutely Jlauderdal, let's wait and see what could happens during the next 24-48H. How big this thing... clouds stretching from far east Barbados near 56°west to 70°west near the DR HUGE

[Brent]

ABNT20 KNHC 191732
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUL 19 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT INTERACTS
WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...ALTHOUGH
CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT
TIME. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND EASTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA REMAIN
DISORGANIZED. THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION
AND TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS UNLIKELY AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/CANGIALOSI

[HeeBGBz]

She's looking kind of feisty for an iffy wave. If it goes through the straits, I may start getting nervous. We usually get the storms that zip through there.

[cycloneye]

The main sentence of the 2 PM TWO is this:

CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT
TIME.

[KWT]

I think thats reasonable cycloneye given some models are semi on board for development. Down the line conditions could be better for development though there remains alot of uncertainty about that.

[srainhoutx]

Big outflow boundry...

[Ivanhater]

AL, 97, 2010071918, , BEST, 0, 192N, 651W, 25, 1014, WV