ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - MODELS

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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#61 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Jul 19, 2010 2:32 pm

SHIP 48KTS 60KTS 73KTS 82KTS

Official track (Internal NHC track) even approaches Hurricane status. Interesting the NHC thinking down the line

Official track. Up to 59 knots.

AL, 97, 2010071918, 03, OFC2, 0, 192N, 651W, 25, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010071918, 03, OFC2, 12, 197N, 672W, 25, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010071918, 03, OFC2, 24, 203N, 693W, 26, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010071918, 03, OFC2, 36, 209N, 714W, 29, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010071918, 03, OFC2, 48, 216N, 734W, 32, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010071918, 03, OFC2, 60, 223N, 754W, 35, 0, , 34, NEQ, 34, 0, 0, 34,
AL, 97, 2010071918, 03, OFC2, 72, 230N, 773W, 40, 0, , 34, NEQ, 35, 0, 0, 35,
AL, 97, 2010071918, 03, OFC2, 84, 239N, 791W, 44, 0, , 34, NEQ, 37, 4, 4, 37,
AL, 97, 2010071918, 03, OFC2, 96, 249N, 808W, 49, 0, , 34, NEQ, 45, 20, 20, 45,
AL, 97, 2010071918, 03, OFC2, 108, 259N, 826W, 54, 0, , 34, NEQ, 54, 39, 39, 54,
AL, 97, 2010071918, 03, OFC2, 108, 259N, 826W, 54, 0, , 50, NEQ, 25, 15, 15, 25,
AL, 97, 2010071918, 03, OFC2, 120, 270N, 843W, 59, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#62 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Jul 19, 2010 2:36 pm

The classic LGEM brings a Hurricane in the Gulf

LGEM

Hurricane in the Gulf.

AL, 97, 2010071918, 03, LGEM, 0, 192N, 651W, 25, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010071918, 03, LGEM, 12, 199N, 675W, 26, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010071918, 03, LGEM, 24, 205N, 699W, 27, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010071918, 03, LGEM, 36, 207N, 722W, 27, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010071918, 03, LGEM, 48, 208N, 744W, 29, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010071918, 03, LGEM, 60, 208N, 765W, 27, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010071918, 03, LGEM, 72, 210N, 784W, 27, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010071918, 03, LGEM, 84, 213N, 802W, 36, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010071918, 03, LGEM, 96, 217N, 821W, 46, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010071918, 03, LGEM, 108, 223N, 837W, 57, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010071918, 03, LGEM, 120, 230N, 854W, 68, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#63 Postby lebron23 » Mon Jul 19, 2010 2:56 pm

Ivanhater wrote:SHIP 48KTS 60KTS 73KTS 82KTS

Official track (Internal NHC track) even approaches Hurricane status. Interesting the NHC thinking down the line

Official track. Up to 59 knots.

AL, 97, 2010071918, 03, OFC2, 0, 192N, 651W, 25, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010071918, 03, OFC2, 12, 197N, 672W, 25, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010071918, 03, OFC2, 24, 203N, 693W, 26, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010071918, 03, OFC2, 36, 209N, 714W, 29, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010071918, 03, OFC2, 48, 216N, 734W, 32, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010071918, 03, OFC2, 60, 223N, 754W, 35, 0, , 34, NEQ, 34, 0, 0, 34,
AL, 97, 2010071918, 03, OFC2, 72, 230N, 773W, 40, 0, , 34, NEQ, 35, 0, 0, 35,
AL, 97, 2010071918, 03, OFC2, 84, 239N, 791W, 44, 0, , 34, NEQ, 37, 4, 4, 37,
AL, 97, 2010071918, 03, OFC2, 96, 249N, 808W, 49, 0, , 34, NEQ, 45, 20, 20, 45,
AL, 97, 2010071918, 03, OFC2, 108, 259N, 826W, 54, 0, , 34, NEQ, 54, 39, 39, 54,
AL, 97, 2010071918, 03, OFC2, 108, 259N, 826W, 54, 0, , 50, NEQ, 25, 15, 15, 25,
AL, 97, 2010071918, 03, OFC2, 120, 270N, 843W, 59, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,



very interesting track too.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather//images/ ... 40_480.jpg
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#64 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Jul 19, 2010 3:10 pm

Image

Internal track
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#65 Postby KWT » Mon Jul 19, 2010 3:16 pm

Very interesting to see the NHC ideas, but it goes right against all the dynamic models right now...

All depends on where the center decides to set-up shop, I think there is good evidence its close to PR...
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#66 Postby Ikester » Mon Jul 19, 2010 3:20 pm

I'd be very surprised to see it ride up the west side of Florida like they have drawn in there. If there were a cone, I'd bet it would track further south than that due to the ridge..
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#67 Postby lebron23 » Mon Jul 19, 2010 3:21 pm

KWT wrote:Very interesting to see the NHC ideas, but it goes right against all the dynamic models right now...

All depends on where the center decides to set-up shop, I think there is good evidence its close to PR...


If thats the case than the track by the NHC is a bit too far north.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#68 Postby johngaltfla » Mon Jul 19, 2010 3:35 pm

Ikester wrote:I'd be very surprised to see it ride up the west side of Florida like they have drawn in there. If there were a cone, I'd bet it would track further south than that due to the ridge..


I have to agree with you. It would take a sudden and massive shift in the wind patterns to make that happen, or the high pressure system moving a bunch to the East....
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#69 Postby ronjon » Mon Jul 19, 2010 4:01 pm

Actually the NHC track looks about right given that the system will be rounding the Upper Ridge as it weakens and slides off to the east. It may actually continue moving N-NW toward the Mobile area after 120 hours.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#70 Postby floridasun78 » Mon Jul 19, 2010 4:03 pm

ivan i see you good looking at model what is chance of been strong ts by west bahamas area? i live in miami fl area that why i ask
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#71 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Jul 19, 2010 4:07 pm

floridasun78 wrote:ivan i see you good looking at model what is chance of been strong ts by west bahamas area? i live in miami fl area that why i ask


Never can tell with strength when it comes to the tropics, so keep an eye on it. Heavy rain looks like a great bet regardless.

Updated NHC internal track( the baby blue, OFC2)

[img]Image[/img]
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#72 Postby KWT » Mon Jul 19, 2010 4:13 pm

ronjon wrote:Actually the NHC track looks about right given that the system will be rounding the Upper Ridge as it weakens and slides off to the east. It may actually continue moving N-NW toward the Mobile area after 120 hours.


The track idea looks right but its quite likely too far north, nearly every single dynamic model is to the south and from the looks of things quite a few of the statistical models are as well.

The ECM strengthens the upper high in the next 48hrs though so a push more to the west seems logical really.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#73 Postby floridasun78 » Mon Jul 19, 2010 4:15 pm

Ivanhater wrote:
floridasun78 wrote:ivan i see you good looking at model what is chance of been strong ts by west bahamas area? i live in miami fl area that why i ask



Never can tell with strength when it comes to the tropics, so keep an eye on it. Heavy rain looks like a great bet regardless.

Updated NHC internal track( the baby blue, OFC2)


how strong do model show as come into bahamas?


*edited by southerngale to remove img tags
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#74 Postby southerngale » Mon Jul 19, 2010 4:31 pm

Please remember to remove IMG tags when quoting posts with images.
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#75 Postby HouTXmetro » Mon Jul 19, 2010 4:34 pm

I'm noticing the BAM models are bending back west near the end of the runs? thoughts?
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#76 Postby petit_bois » Mon Jul 19, 2010 4:36 pm

Not liking the looks of the CMC at all...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#77 Postby redfish1 » Mon Jul 19, 2010 4:38 pm

petit_bois wrote:Not liking the looks of the CMC at all...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation


its the cmc :roll: :roll:
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#78 Postby rockyman » Mon Jul 19, 2010 4:42 pm

18z GFS Para is running

thru 60 hours (strengthening north of eastern Cuba):
Image
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#79 Postby Wx_Warrior » Mon Jul 19, 2010 5:17 pm

gfs 18z para 96h

Image
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#80 Postby rockyman » Mon Jul 19, 2010 5:18 pm

Crosses south Florida:
Image
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