ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[Ivanhater]

A very detailed discussion about 97L from accuweather

http://www.accuweather.com/video/906595 ... ks-end.asp

[Ivanhater]

Big drop in shear recently

12 UTC



15 UTC

[Tropics Guy]

The ULL to the north is blowing off the T-storms on the NW side of the wave big time, IMO looks like we'll have to wait at least another 48 hours for any significant development as it moves WNW...

TG

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

Big outflow boundry...

We'll see if they regen but not a sign of development.

[CourierPR]

Michael, is there a center of circulation developing north of the V. I. or am I wrong?

[Ivanhater]

Michael, is there a center of circulation developing north of the V. I. or am I wrong?

There might be something going on in that area...

[cycloneye]

Radar has the answer.

[tolakram]

Looks like something happening just E-NE of Puerto Rico.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

Speed this up and even go 30 frames if needed. Low level inflow seems to be getting started east and south of the convection, with the entire low level flow south of the islands changing as the day wears on.

[Florida1118]

It just looks like a gap in storms.

[Nimbus]

Already looking for a low level center? The convection that was getting sheared up northwest of Puerto Rico seems to be dissipating as the ULL fills in. Further east we have a major burst near 20N 63W. If it persists we get another 5 pages on storm2k and then maybe the NHC upgrades.

Going with the odds the flare up further east will probably dissipate but it does have that look.

[Vortmax1]

Nothing to brag about...but vorticity is slightly stronger than earlier this morning.

[Ivanhater]

Something is definitely going on just NE of PR...

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

Impressive Divergence!

[KWT]

Looks like the track will take it right through the Caribbean islands, like I had thought possibly would occur last night. The steering currents though look likely to take it through to the central Gulf IMO. I just can't see anything too potent from this down the line to be honest though conditions do improve in the Gulf. Bonnie is quite possible in 5-7 days time from this.

Shear is indeed decreasing right now Ivanhater, I think the system is trying to pull itself together a little, but its not going to have enough time before Hispaniola rips any proto circulation away from the upper flow...though actually with the lower flow being the way it is that may not be quite the killer it usually is...

[Ivanhater]

[CourierPR]

KWT, isn't this system going to move just north of the islands and into the southeast Bahamas?

[abajan]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I hope those in Hispaniola, especially Haiti, are monitoring the progress of 97L very closely because IMHO even if it doesn’t develop into a TD, the potential for flooding certainly exists.

[KWT]

Just had a look at the loop, no doubt something is going on down there. I have a sneaky feeling PR is actually helping this out a little and allowing the spin to get going. You can see the MLC with the convection that is now rapidly decaying further north.

Watch this area, if there is one area that may have a slim shot before it reaches Hispaniola it'll be this region.

[cycloneye]

I hope those in Hispaniola, especially Haiti, are monitoring the progress of 97L very closely because IMHO even if it doesn’t develop into a TD, the potential for flooding certainly exists.

By what is occuring in Puerto Rico for sure. I am posting this photo only to let know the members of what is going on here.But all the observations and news about this rain event are being posted on the Caribbean and Central America thread at USA & Caribbean weather forum.

[Vortmax1]

The tracking is most likely right through the islands...not to the North. Based on what we know now.
Here's the 700-850 steering:

[HURAKAN]

All depends where the LLC forms.