BOC system

[floridasun78]

let see we get two invest on monday

[Wx_Warrior]

EURO

[KWT]

This area is interesting because it has an ULH aloft and actually looks deecnt at the moment with moderate convection swirling around.

Should be an invest IMO as well...

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUL 19 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
IT INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
...HAITI...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THERE ARE
CURRENTLY NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION AND DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO
15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN

[Sanibel]

Too weak. Scattered and underdeveloped.

[KWT]

But it has got a nice wril with it, clear sign of an upper high over the system but as you say Sanibel just not quite enough going for it right now...

[Brent]

NEXT?

ABNT20 KNHC 191732
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUL 19 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT INTERACTS
WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...ALTHOUGH
CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT
TIME. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND EASTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA REMAIN
DISORGANIZED. THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION
AND TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS UNLIKELY AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/CANGIALOSI

[cycloneye]

[lrak]

You can see a weak swirl at 15.5n 83w and a large swirl at 17n 83w.

[BigA]

I think this may have been discounted too early. I see some sort of circulation forming near 18 N 82 W.

[lrak]

I think this may have been discounted too early. I see some sort of circulation forming near 18 N 82 W.

Is that mid level? I see a lot of low level clouds swirling towards that area. It didn't like being compared to a ZERO

[tailgater]

You can see a weak swirl at 15.5n 83w and a large swirl at 17n 83w.

I see one also maybe the same as yours Karl @ 14.3N 82,4W

[tailgater]

I think this may have been discounted too early. I see some sort of circulation forming near 18 N 82 W.

I think that one is mostly mid level.

[lrak]

I think this may have been discounted too early. I see some sort of circulation forming near 18 N 82 W.

I think that one is mostly mid level.

Maybe its working down tailgater

[HURAKAN]

Loop - http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1



Definitely something is going on

[HURAKAN]

This system has a high pressure over it

[lrak]

Little convection starting back up tonight. Maybe the northern Caribbean bowl of Cuba and the Yucatan are helping it organize.

[Macrocane]

It looks good, maybe it will be mentioned again in the TWO tomorrow.

[lrak]

It looks good, maybe it will be mentioned again in the TWO tomorrow.

Im waiting patiently

It looks like a storm is brewing. Maybe the title to the thread should be NW Caribbean?

18n 84w?

[Nimbus]

Maybe something coming together near the tip of Cuba just west of the Isle of Youth.
That seems to be the area of highest divergence and the ULL out in the gulf is rolling west which will set up an even more favorable upper air environment.