ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[Gustywind]

Moisture, moisture...

[Gustywind]

LATEST

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

Where?

That is the big question this morning. Hopefully,any of our pro mets can answer.

[tolakram]

MIMIC-TPW seems to hint at the most likely position just north or possible over PR.



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[boca]

On the tropical update they said that 97L is more organized.On the contrary it looks pathetic.Theirs not even a center to initialize.

[xironman]

Where?

That loop makes it look like the SE MLC.

[cyclonic chronic]

looks like groad cyclonic turning off the s.e., P.R. coast on the San Juan radar. could just be my eyes playin tricks on me!! im supposed to head up to jacksonvilee area this weekend. i sure hope this fizzles.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... A&loop=yes

[Frank2]

I agree, Boca - per the latest TWO, there's a definite abuse of the term "vigorous (a/k/a strong) tropical wave" - in the 1980's that term was only used when the system was within 6-12 hours (the next forecast cycle) of becoming a depression...

Perhaps they are referring to the strong thunderstorms associated with the wave, but that's for the aviation forecaster to decide when issuing SIGMETS, etc., but to include the terminology in the TWO gives the public the impression that the wave is one step from a named system - I don't see anything that even comes close to that this morning, or as the late Dr. Rosenthal (HRD Director) would say on seeing today's satellite photo, "Go home, Frank!"...

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html

[SFLcane]

On the tropical update they said that 97L is more organized.On the contrary it looks pathetic.Theirs not even a center to initialize.

From the 8:05am special feature...http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/201050.shtml?

RECENT UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

[Vortex]

San Juan has gone from winds out of the ENE overnight to SSE this morning...Indicative of a sharp T-wave. Pressures have also fallen some. Vorticity up just North of PR. Based on the above referenced information I think the area to focus today will be just North of San Jan for possible LLC formation as the upper air pattern is improving.

AM (12) Jul 20 75.9 (24.4) 73.0 (22.8) 29.95 (1014) SSE 7 light rain
7 AM (11) Jul 20 75.9 (24.4) 73.9 (23.3) 29.93 (1013) SE 5 light rain
6 AM (10) Jul 20 75.0 (23.9) 73.0 (22.8) 29.93 (1013) Calm light rain
5 AM (9) Jul 20 75.9 (24.4) 73.0 (22.8) 29.93 (1013) SE 3 light rain
4 AM (8) Jul 20 75.9 (24.4) 73.0 (22.8) 29.94 (1013) ESE 12 light rain
3 AM (7) Jul 20 75.9 (24.4) 73.0 (22.8) 29.94 (1013) E 12
2 AM (6) Jul 20 77.0 (25.0) 73.0 (22.8) 29.96 (1014) ENE 16
1 AM (5) Jul 20 77.0 (25.0) 73.9 (23.3) 29.98 (1015) ENE 24 light rain
Midnight (4) Jul 20 78.1 (25.6) 73.9 (23.3) 30 (1015) ENE 16

[floridasun78]

my question how long will it take for it to become td or ts before heading toward keys it look like PR or something else keeping it from becoming a td our forecast here in miami dont show storms from 97l coming over us our rain chance friday is 40%

[Frank2]

FYI - look at that ULL/TUTT feature NW of the disturbance that is dropping SW ahead of it:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

[cycloneye]

Making more sense the position north of San Juan as ST Thomas has South winds.


7 AM (11) Jul 20 78 (26) 73 (23) 29.99 (1015) S 12
Visibility 1 1/2 mile(s)
Sky conditions overcast
Weather Heavy rain

[Blown Away]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
744 AM EDT TUE JUL 20 2010

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND... A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR PUERTO
RICO WILL CONTINUE WEST AND POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRI
OR SAT. MODELS DIVERGE ON THE SOLUTION WITH THE GFS KEEPING A LOW
EAST OF FL DRIVING DRY AIR DOWN THE PENINSULA AND THE NAM KEEPING
A WEAK LOW SOUTH OF THE AREA AND OVER THE STRAITS WITH A BIG INC
IN MOISTURE OVER S FL... THE ECMWF IS ROUGHLY THE SAME AS THE NAM.
KEPT IN LINE WITH THE LAST TWO AS THIS ALSO SHOWS MORE CONTINUITY
WITH THE PAST GFS RUNS, BUT SCT POPS MAY STILL BE UNDER DONE.

Excerpt from NWS Miami discussion...

[HURAKAN]

12z

AL, 97, 2010072012, , BEST, 0, 190N, 653W, 30, 1013, DB

30 knots

[Frank2]

I'm guessing that the ULL/TUTT feature will squish this system...

Just a guess, but unlike the over-enhanced colored IR photos that the media like to use to drive everyone crazy, the WV never lies...

[cycloneye]

12z

AL, 97, 2010072012, , BEST, 0, 190N, 653W, 30, 1013, DB

30 knots

Around 50 miles NNE of San Juan.

[gatorcane]

FYI - look at that ULL/TUTT feature NW of the disturbance that is dropping SW ahead of it:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

Yes see that but that ULL is expected to retrograde back to the west then WNW and weaken as a ridge builds into the Western Atlantic. To me this system is gradually starting to organize (unfortunately) so I agree with what the NHC mentions in the TWO. Convection is persisting around the "LLC" which is a key indicator, Upper-level winds are on the decrease. Still it has a long way to go before it reaches depression status so hopefully it just won't develop.

Here in SE FL over the past week or so we have seen strong ESE winds up in the 20-30mph range building in across the region with fast moving showers off the Atlantic. Certainly "feels" August or September-like out there.

[cycloneye]

HURAKAN,they updated in minutes the longitud from 65.3W to 65.8W. That is now north of San Juan.

AL, 97, 2010072012, , BEST, 0, 190N, 658W, 30, 1013

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest