ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

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HURAKAN
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#661 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Jul 20, 2010 7:37 pm

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#662 Postby KWT » Tue Jul 20, 2010 7:38 pm

I maybe a little off track here but I think the presentation has slightly worsened in the last few hours, it may well jsut be the function of D-min but it does look more linear then it was about 2-4hrs ago.

I'd guess the systems center is where the current estimate is.
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#663 Postby vbhoutex » Tue Jul 20, 2010 7:38 pm

MiamiHurricanes10 wrote:00z SHIPS takes 97L as a category 1 into south Florida. 00z "official" takes 97L into south Florida as a strong TS.

What is the 00z "official"?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - DISCUSSION

#664 Postby Blown Away » Tue Jul 20, 2010 7:39 pm

cycloneye wrote:Two things about the 00z Best Track. First is moving at 290 degrees at 8kts,more slowly and second,the longitud position is more east than the 18z one.

LATCUR = 19.8N LONCUR = 68.5W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 8KT


IMO, this delay in WNW movement could allow for strengthening and better chances of Florida landfall. My theory holds true if we see eastern trend with the models.
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Re: Re:

#665 Postby MiamiHurricanes10 » Tue Jul 20, 2010 7:42 pm

vbhoutex wrote:
MiamiHurricanes10 wrote:00z SHIPS takes 97L as a category 1 into south Florida. 00z "official" takes 97L into south Florida as a strong TS.

What is the 00z "official"?

Scroll down all the way down to the bottom of the page where it says "OFC2"

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/aid/aal972010.dat
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - DISCUSSION

#666 Postby cheezyWXguy » Tue Jul 20, 2010 7:45 pm

hey btw, who has a link to the RAMMB website with all the satellite imagery. I lost the link :(
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - DISCUSSION

#667 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 20, 2010 7:47 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:hey btw, who has a link to the RAMMB website with all the satellite imagery. I lost the link :(


http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp
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Re: Re:

#668 Postby MWatkins » Tue Jul 20, 2010 7:48 pm

vbhoutex wrote:
MiamiHurricanes10 wrote:00z SHIPS takes 97L as a category 1 into south Florida. 00z "official" takes 97L into south Florida as a strong TS.

What is the 00z "official"?


If the NHC believes a system will be a problem, they will often make internal forecasts on storms before they actually upgrade publicly.

Among other things, this helps with recon planning etc.

This is available on their ATCF server as a large text file...

It's worth noting that not all systems that get an "internal" forecast actually develop, but my experience is they will start internal forecast tracks when a system is close to getting a "number" or a name.

MW
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#669 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Jul 20, 2010 7:52 pm

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97L "Official" Track
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#670 Postby Cyclone1 » Tue Jul 20, 2010 7:54 pm

Let's hope is stays on that track, and stays weak. We don't want it spending a whole lot of time in the gulf.
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#671 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Jul 20, 2010 7:56 pm

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#672 Postby ConvergenceZone » Tue Jul 20, 2010 7:58 pm

Has anyone ever seen the Invest on the TWO's be given a higher chance than 60%? I'm just curious if the National Hurricane Center will ever go higher than 60% even if it's very likely for development...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - DISCUSSION

#673 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 20, 2010 7:59 pm

This is the first SSD T number for 97L.

20/2345 UTC 19.4N 67.4W T1.0/1.0 97L -- Atlantic

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html
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Re:

#674 Postby Hurricanehink » Tue Jul 20, 2010 8:00 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:Has anyone ever seen the Invest on the TWO's be given a higher chance than 60%? I'm just curious if the National Hurricane Center will ever go higher than 60% even if it's very likely for development...


Agatha's precursor had 100%. That is reserved, I think, when NHC says "a tropical depression could be forming".
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#675 Postby MiamiHurricanes10 » Tue Jul 20, 2010 8:01 pm

TAFB still at 1.5

TAFB, JS, I, 5, 1515 /////, , , GOES13, CSC, T, DT = 1.5 BASED ON 0.3 BANDING. NLINEMET= 1.0 PAT=
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - DISCUSSION

#676 Postby Blown Away » Tue Jul 20, 2010 8:01 pm

Just when 97L was looking ragged a few convection bursts and 97L looks very close to TD status. I think we are now seeing where the LLC may develop!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - DISCUSSION

#677 Postby Blown Away » Tue Jul 20, 2010 8:03 pm

cycloneye wrote:This is the first SSD T number for 97L.

20/2345 UTC 19.4N 67.4W T1.0/1.0 97L -- Atlantic

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html


That's directly over where the convection is bubbling!
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Re:

#678 Postby flamingosun » Tue Jul 20, 2010 8:08 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:Has anyone ever seen the Invest on the TWO's be given a higher chance than 60%? I'm just curious if the National Hurricane Center will ever go higher than 60% even if it's very likely for development...



Here's a copy of a TWO from earlier this season that had a 70% probability. This became Darby.

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE JUN 22 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANECELIA LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.

1. A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF GUATEMALA IS ACCOMPANIED BY AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS LOW CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A HIGHCHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONEDURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
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#679 Postby Cyclone1 » Tue Jul 20, 2010 8:12 pm

I've seen percentages as high as 80% before.
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#680 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Jul 20, 2010 8:16 pm

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