ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[gatorcane]

Well we continue to be fortunate the upper-level low is lurking off to its NNW. That is pumping in dry air from the NW into the western side of 97L. But this ULL is forecasted to eventually weaken and should be replaced by a ridge axis that builds in just to the north. When that happens, we could see some strengthening. Question will be, how much time will it have over water should it impact SE FL? Could it be like a Katrina where it moved ashore before becoming too strong? Had Katrina had another 24 hours over water, I'm pretty sure we would be talking a CAT 3 instead of a CAT 1 into SE FL.

[tailgater]

I don't see the increased organization that most are talking about, to me the whole western side of the invest will be under the ULL or TUTT for at least the next 24 to 36 hrs. what am I missing? No signs of LLC that i can see.

[rockyman]

Looks like an anticyclone forming above our system (notice the peach colored line wrapping around the north side of the system). If this continues, it could serve as a "forcefield" from the shear.

[hurricaneCW]

97L isn't the cleanest way to get a storm. So far, Alex and TD 2 struggled with dry air and wind shear before developing and this one's no different. I'm thinking tonight's maximum allows it to consolidate more and cause a pressure drop. The earliest for a TD would probably be early Thursday.

[gatorcane]

it appears deep red convection is blowing up now just north of Puerto Rico. Let's see if this is a trend or just something ephemeral.

[wxman57]

some excitement brewing...

just stopping bye.....anyone have any preliminary potential with this thing....

high end TC....low end cane? as far as s. fl is concerned ....i could some family down there

I think it was Wxman57 who said that it could be a cat 1 or even cat 2 hurricane.

Not a Cat 2 by Florida, by the northern Gulf Coast. Probably a lower-end Cat 1 when it reaches Florida.

[Bocadude85]

wxman57 what do you think the chances of develpment are? do you think 97L is becoming less organized?

[Aquawind]

I hear ya tailgater.. Nothing visually impressive related to any llc as of yet. Some displaced deeper convection to the east of the best track location but, no obs yet either..same ole slow process..

[Blown Away]

Look at the WV Loop and you can see the dry moistening, another 12 hours and the dry will not be a big factor.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[gatorcane]

I can't really detect much of a movement still. Looks like it is nearly stationary. If you look where it was this morning and now, really hasn't moved. Thoughts?

[tailgater]

I hear ya tailgater.. Nothing visually impressive related to any llc as of yet. Some displaced deeper convection to the east of the best track location but, no obs yet either..same ole slow process..

Here's another factor or 2 against development anytime soon.
notice the increase right in the projected path.

and at the mid levels also.

[Lowpressure]

Still looks elongated as a sharp trough axis. Trying to organize, but will take a little time for sure. Recon tomorrow will be interesting.

[ConvergenceZone]

I think shear is still the main inhibiting factor here. That ULL to the NNW of 97L has been diving SW all day. That is why we are seeing an elongation of the disturbance during the past 6 hours. If this doesn't abate I think we won't have a well established surface circulation for a few days.

I don't think this is true, because in a few days, this will be on land.

[boca]

Why isn't 97L moving quicker,you would think with the strong high to its north it would give 97L momentum.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

I hear ya tailgater.. Nothing visually impressive related to any llc as of yet. Some displaced deeper convection to the east of the best track location but, no obs yet either..same ole slow process..

Here's another factor or 2 against development anytime soon.
notice the increase right in the projected path.

and at the mid levels also.

The ULL is obviously weakening as it is looking more like a trough-like feature (evident on 200mb vorticity), that is what the increase of shear is attributed to in the past 24 hours. As the ULL ventures off to the west with continuous weakening, 97L will be under favorable upper level winds. Also, as of late anticyclonic flow is evident on 97L with latest CIMSS graphs showing that we are currently going through anticyclogenesis atop 97L.

[Blown Away]

I can't really detect much of a movement still. Looks like it is nearly stationary. If you look where it was this morning and now, really hasn't moved. Thoughts?

I have been posting all day about the lack of movement, I think that ULL is on its last legs and the ridge will be building in soon and nudge 97L back on the WNW path. I think the lack of W movement is leaving SFL more vulnerable and if 97L takes a WNW track away from the big islands it will spend more time over the warm waters. Based on earlier predictions 97L should already be past 70W.

[redfish1]

Why isn't 97L moving quicker,you would think with the strong high to its north it would give 97L momentum.

if this was really happening would it give the high enough time to build back in and push this system on a westerly track?

[cycloneye]

deltadog03, I see you are here so what is your take on the future of 97L trackwise and on intensity?

[tailgater]

The ULL is obviously weakening as it is looking more like a trough-like feature (evident on 200mb vorticity), that is what the increase of shear is attributed to in the past 24 hours. As the ULL ventures off to the west with continuous weakening, 97L will be under favorable upper level winds. Also, as of late anticyclonic flow is evident on 97L with latest CIMSS graphs showing that we are currently going through anticyclogenesis atop 97L.

_________________
MiamiHurricanes10
I don't see where the ULL is weakening, or are you talking about the forecast. 5 day loop shows it's as strong as ever.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... 1java.html