ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[SFLcane]

Convection has remained fairly concentrated near center of circulation, and wind shear is finally dropping significantly. It is now well vertically stacked up to 500mb. Although convection is essential, it is not all we should look at.

Some new convection redeveloping

[poof121]

Is the convection popping just west of the blob N of DR a possible LLC?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[Bocadude85]

Looks like we are finally starting to see a roll now also

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... t72hrs.gif

[baitism]

Visible is either playing tricks on my eyes or it looks like some stronger turning is evident on the last couple frames.

[SFLcane]

Visible is either playing tricks on my eyes or it looks like some stronger turning is evident on the last couple frames.

Yea thats what i was mentioning in my previous post. It has a well-defined circulation--which seems to be more noticeable now.

[Bocadude85]

Yes it does seem as if 97l is trying organize once again and convection seems to be behaving in the way wxman57 said it would

[AdamFirst]

Looks like it's finally moving. Only it looks like it's heading northwest.

[gatorcane]

YEs Wxman pointed us where the LLC would be earlier this morning and looking at the VIS loops, I see a clearly defined low-level center now moving slowly WNW. Let's see if convection starts to wrap around.

[canes04]

wxman57 called it this morning.

I wish they did not cnx today's recon mission.

[Aquawind]

97L is getting pretty close to closing a llc off.. This northward surge of moisture and convection to the east is looking like a wrapping might be starting on the north and west eventually. Today's visiable loops clearly show the overall rotation and organization. Outflow looks to be improving to the north. Just a matter of time if this keeps up and conditions only improving.

[AdamFirst]

wxman57 called it this morning.

I wish they did not cnx today's recon mission.

I believe they're sitting in St. Croix at the moment. I'm sure if it's necessary they can get a plane out there

[ROCK]

There is no strong LLC here...it exposed to the sw of the convection as the shear it blowing off the t-storms to the NE....this is not vetically stacked...

[Sanibel]

The last few years systems have looked promising in this area only to weaken out and never fully develop.

[Aquawind]

There is no strong LLC here...it exposed to the sw of the convection as the shear it blowing off the t-storms to the NE....this is not vetically stacked...

Exactly.. not yet.

[ROCK]

Oh I think it has a chancebut that ULL is kicking its butt right now...moving west or not. You can see the high clouds screaming SW to NE over it......

Gatorcane was right the inflow is cut off by DR....so its got a few things going against it

[Bocadude85]

There is no strong LLC here...it exposed to the sw of the convection as the shear it blowing off the t-storms to the NE....this is not vetically stacked...

There is not a strong LLC at the moment but its well on its way. Look at this water vapor loop notice that as the ULL to the north is pulling away the shear seems to be relaxing over the system.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

[SFLcane]

Here's a close-up 1km vis loop

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/temp/movie.gif

[Vortmax1]

There is no strong LLC here...it exposed to the sw of the convection as the shear it blowing off the t-storms to the NE....this is not vetically stacked...

Thank you!
I don't see anything like that yet either.

[rockyman]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

For anyone interested, here's my updated "risk map"...along with the map from yesterday. As you can see, the area has shifted west, but, unfortunately, hasn't gotten any smaller. The chances of recurve appear to have dropped a lot since yesterday.

TODAY:


YESTERDAY:

[Comanche]

I think the visable can be quite deceiving at times, it is a great tool in the box, but needs to be used with other tools. Looking at this broad WV loop makes the vis look far less impressive.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html