ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - DISCUSSION
cycloneye wrote:Lets have a quick poll about what % will NHC give at 2 PM TWO.
I say it stays at 60%.
50, that system is really fragile, one puff from the magic dragon and the "center" gets blown to pieces
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- petit_bois
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - DISCUSSION
I don't see this organizing for 48 hrs. TD maybe in the future... but not soon.
I say NHC says 50% but is thinking 30% tops...
I say NHC says 50% but is thinking 30% tops...
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- Tropics Guy
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - DISCUSSION
Stays at 60%, because of the warm SST's ahead, but continued shear will keep it from rapidly developing.......
TG
TG
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- Bocadude85
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Re:
Aric Dunn wrote:Its nearly formed a closed LLC ... once it gets a little farther away from the Hispaniola..
Once it gets away from Hispaniola then what?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - DISCUSSION
Probably the same...I don't see 97L really getting going until more favorable conditions.
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- HouTXmetro
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - DISCUSSION
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Re:
HouTXmetro wrote:I'm watching the loops and what everyone now thinks is the COC could be an optical illusion from the ULL interacting with the invest. I would still put it somewhat SE under the convection.
Loop - http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... is_floater
No optical illusion. Watch for yourself.
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- x-y-no
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I think it stays at 60%.
...
Just for fun, I went back and looked at some of the discussion of the disturbance which eventually became Katrina.
It didn't look too great in this location either:

But note, even at that time the global models were quite hot on developing it in the Gulf ... so the parallel is actually not that good.
...
Just for fun, I went back and looked at some of the discussion of the disturbance which eventually became Katrina.
It didn't look too great in this location either:

But note, even at that time the global models were quite hot on developing it in the Gulf ... so the parallel is actually not that good.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - DISCUSSION
I think we can now say it's closed off an LLC, just barely.
Zoom 1:
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=30
Zoom 2:
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=30
Now the question is can it be maintained and grow deeper, or will the shear stat too strong? Didn't Danny skip over depression status and right to tropical storm? Different setup of course.
Zoom 1:
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=30
Zoom 2:
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=30
Now the question is can it be maintained and grow deeper, or will the shear stat too strong? Didn't Danny skip over depression status and right to tropical storm? Different setup of course.
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- jasons2k
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I think they stay, just based on keeping the status-quo. It looked dreadful this morning but may be getting better organized as it pulls away from Hispaniola.
I'm still on the weaker/southern train with this. It will probably struggle until the central or western Gulf, maybe all the way up to landfall, if it survives.
I'm still on the weaker/southern train with this. It will probably struggle until the central or western Gulf, maybe all the way up to landfall, if it survives.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - DISCUSSION
Ok so after further analysis I would say we have a closed circ... its small right now as it has just recently formed..


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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - DISCUSSION
I think it drops to 50% at 2 p.m. Eastern update. System really struggling at present time.
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