ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

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Aric Dunn
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#961 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Jul 21, 2010 11:52 am

Its nearly formed a closed LLC ... once it gets a little farther away from the Hispaniola..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - DISCUSSION

#962 Postby jlauderdal » Wed Jul 21, 2010 11:52 am

cycloneye wrote:Lets have a quick poll about what % will NHC give at 2 PM TWO.

I say it stays at 60%.


50, that system is really fragile, one puff from the magic dragon and the "center" gets blown to pieces
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#963 Postby fci » Wed Jul 21, 2010 11:54 am

I'm with staying at 60.
48 hours is the window the Pro Mets keep saying is when this could develop.
Based on that it should be even higher but it's staggering overnight should keep the % from becoming prohibitive
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#964 Postby rockyman » Wed Jul 21, 2010 11:55 am

I'd stay at 60%...it certainly doesn't look any worse than it did this morning. The potential LLC appears to be trying to tuck itself under the heavier convection.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - DISCUSSION

#965 Postby petit_bois » Wed Jul 21, 2010 11:56 am

I don't see this organizing for 48 hrs. TD maybe in the future... but not soon.
I say NHC says 50% but is thinking 30% tops...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - DISCUSSION

#966 Postby Tropics Guy » Wed Jul 21, 2010 11:57 am

Stays at 60%, because of the warm SST's ahead, but continued shear will keep it from rapidly developing.......

TG
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#967 Postby Bocadude85 » Wed Jul 21, 2010 11:57 am

Aric Dunn wrote:Its nearly formed a closed LLC ... once it gets a little farther away from the Hispaniola..


Once it gets away from Hispaniola then what?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - DISCUSSION

#968 Postby Wx_Warrior » Wed Jul 21, 2010 11:59 am

Probably the same...I don't see 97L really getting going until more favorable conditions.
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#969 Postby expat2carib » Wed Jul 21, 2010 11:59 am

50/50 % chance of development.
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#970 Postby HouTXmetro » Wed Jul 21, 2010 12:03 pm

I'm watching the loops and what everyone now thinks is the COC could be an optical illusion from the ULL interacting with the invest. I would still put it somewhat SE under the convection.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - DISCUSSION

#971 Postby Blown Away » Wed Jul 21, 2010 12:04 pm

97L is seems to be building convection quickly! :lol:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-rb.html
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#972 Postby lebron23 » Wed Jul 21, 2010 12:04 pm

60-70 percent IMO
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - DISCUSSION

#973 Postby Cuber » Wed Jul 21, 2010 12:06 pm

NHC stays at 60% at 2:00pm --- just my uneducated guess
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#974 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Jul 21, 2010 12:09 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:I'm watching the loops and what everyone now thinks is the COC could be an optical illusion from the ULL interacting with the invest. I would still put it somewhat SE under the convection.


Loop - http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... is_floater

No optical illusion. Watch for yourself.
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#975 Postby x-y-no » Wed Jul 21, 2010 12:09 pm

I think it stays at 60%.

...

Just for fun, I went back and looked at some of the discussion of the disturbance which eventually became Katrina.

It didn't look too great in this location either:

Image

But note, even at that time the global models were quite hot on developing it in the Gulf ... so the parallel is actually not that good.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - DISCUSSION

#976 Postby tolakram » Wed Jul 21, 2010 12:12 pm

I think we can now say it's closed off an LLC, just barely.

Zoom 1:
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=30

Zoom 2:
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=30

Now the question is can it be maintained and grow deeper, or will the shear stat too strong? Didn't Danny skip over depression status and right to tropical storm? Different setup of course.
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#977 Postby jasons2k » Wed Jul 21, 2010 12:13 pm

I think they stay, just based on keeping the status-quo. It looked dreadful this morning but may be getting better organized as it pulls away from Hispaniola.

I'm still on the weaker/southern train with this. It will probably struggle until the central or western Gulf, maybe all the way up to landfall, if it survives.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - DISCUSSION

#978 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Jul 21, 2010 12:13 pm

Ok so after further analysis I would say we have a closed circ... its small right now as it has just recently formed..

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - DISCUSSION

#979 Postby StormClouds63 » Wed Jul 21, 2010 12:13 pm

I think it drops to 50% at 2 p.m. Eastern update. System really struggling at present time.
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#980 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Jul 21, 2010 12:16 pm

well if they confirm the circ has formed.. it is likely they will up it to some higher percentage..
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