ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - MODELS

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Hurricane

Re:

#461 Postby Hurricane » Wed Jul 21, 2010 1:19 pm

KFDM Meteorologist wrote:12Z EURO has weak inverted trough approaching LA/TX.

What does that mean?
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Weatherfreak000

Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#462 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Wed Jul 21, 2010 1:21 pm

Ivanhater wrote:I think it's pretty obvious what were seeing. If its weak, of course it will go more with the low level flow like the CMC and Euro, if its stronger the further north and east.



Great post, as i've been saying for the longest, that has always been the parallel in track involving the EURO. It will keep verifying if the storms stay weak.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#463 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Jul 21, 2010 1:24 pm

BTW, the 12z UKMET really retrogrades the ridge eastward

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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#464 Postby Hurricane » Wed Jul 21, 2010 1:25 pm

Ivanhater wrote:BTW, the 12z UKMET really retrogrades the ridge eastward

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ukm/20 ... /slp10.png

If the ridge goes eastward, what will happen?
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#465 Postby ROCK » Wed Jul 21, 2010 1:25 pm

thats what 3-4 runs in row with the EURO with same outcome...interesting
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#466 Postby AdamFirst » Wed Jul 21, 2010 1:26 pm

The Euro is hanging on to the belief that 97L won't even develop.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#467 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Jul 21, 2010 1:27 pm

ROCK wrote:thats what 3-4 runs in row with the EURO with same outcome...interesting


Euro has never developed it, so if it doesn't develop and flows west I'll throw a Euro party and be initiated into the Euro brotherhood. God, I hope it forms :lol:
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#468 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Wed Jul 21, 2010 1:28 pm

EURO keeps the ridge a little stronger north of it like yesterday's run.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#469 Postby Wx_Warrior » Wed Jul 21, 2010 1:29 pm

Ivan, I have a chair right here waiting for you. The darkside is not all that bad.

Why did you think DADDY J.B. don't think it will develop? :wink:
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Hurricane

#470 Postby Hurricane » Wed Jul 21, 2010 1:29 pm

LOL, Ivan, do you like bad weather?
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#471 Postby ROCK » Wed Jul 21, 2010 1:30 pm

Ivanhater wrote:
ROCK wrote:thats what 3-4 runs in row with the EURO with same outcome...interesting


Euro has never developed it, so if it doesn't develop and flows west I'll throw a Euro party and be initiated into the Euro brotherhood. God, I hope it forms :lol:



finally you are comnig around.... :lol: WX Warrior and I welcome you... :lol:
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#472 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Jul 21, 2010 1:33 pm

Not so fast yall, I said IF it doesn't form and slides west. I have some time :lol:
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#473 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Jul 21, 2010 1:35 pm

I still think the UKMET sliding the ridge east is very telling.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#474 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 21, 2010 1:37 pm

18z Tropical Models

Code: Select all

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1826 UTC WED JUL 21 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972010) 20100721 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100721  1800   100722  0600   100722  1800   100723  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    21.3N  71.4W   21.8N  74.1W   22.6N  76.5W   23.3N  78.6W
BAMD    21.3N  71.4W   22.3N  73.4W   23.6N  75.8W   24.8N  78.6W
BAMM    21.3N  71.4W   21.9N  73.6W   22.9N  75.8W   24.0N  78.1W
LBAR    21.3N  71.4W   22.1N  73.6W   23.2N  76.0W   24.2N  78.5W
SHIP        30KTS          32KTS          36KTS          40KTS
DSHP        30KTS          32KTS          36KTS          40KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100723  1800   100724  1800   100725  1800   100726  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    24.4N  80.8W   26.5N  85.3W   28.2N  89.7W   29.8N  93.2W
BAMD    26.3N  81.9W   29.9N  88.3W   33.8N  91.8W   37.1N  91.4W
BAMM    25.2N  80.6W   27.6N  85.7W   29.8N  89.9W   31.9N  92.5W
LBAR    25.5N  81.1W   28.5N  86.2W   31.8N  88.7W   35.5N  87.1W
SHIP        45KTS          50KTS          54KTS          58KTS
DSHP        45KTS          48KTS          44KTS          29KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  21.3N LONCUR =  71.4W DIRCUR = 297DEG SPDCUR =  12KT
LATM12 =  20.1N LONM12 =  69.0W DIRM12 = 297DEG SPDM12 =  10KT
LATM24 =  19.6N LONM24 =  67.3W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   30KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD =  175NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM

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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#475 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Jul 21, 2010 1:43 pm

BTW, here is a better look at the break in the ridge on the Canadian. If a deeper storm is present it will see it

Image
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#476 Postby canes101 » Wed Jul 21, 2010 1:46 pm

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Re:

#477 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Jul 21, 2010 1:52 pm

So far it's batting a 1000 with 97L.


AdamFirst wrote:The Euro is hanging on to the belief that 97L won't even develop.
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Hurricane

#478 Postby Hurricane » Wed Jul 21, 2010 1:59 pm

The models shift more west every run. I think the final landfall is going to be farther west than what most of us think.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#479 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Jul 21, 2010 2:01 pm

18z Dynamical

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Re:

#480 Postby lebron23 » Wed Jul 21, 2010 2:05 pm

Hurricane wrote:The models shift more west every run. I think the final landfall is going to be farther west than what most of us think.


Agree. I am looking between Port O'Connor,TX and Gulfport, MS for a landfall IMO.
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