ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - MODELS

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Weatherfreak000

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#481 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Wed Jul 21, 2010 2:06 pm

Hurricane wrote:The models shift more west every run. I think the final landfall is going to be farther west than what most of us think.


The model consensus has actually shifted more East and North. Given the assumption this becomes Bonnie.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#482 Postby StormClouds63 » Wed Jul 21, 2010 2:08 pm

Ivan:

You've got guts ... but never doubt the EURO! The initiation isn't so bad, though.
Last edited by StormClouds63 on Wed Jul 21, 2010 2:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#483 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Jul 21, 2010 2:10 pm

StormClouds63 wrote:Ivan:

You've got guts ... never doubt the EURO! Study for that test, too.


I never blindly follow one model, that's dangerous. But studying non the less :wink:
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Re: Re:

#484 Postby americanre1 » Wed Jul 21, 2010 2:48 pm

lebron23 wrote:
Hurricane wrote:The models shift more west every run. I think the final landfall is going to be farther west than what most of us think.


Agree. I am looking between Port O'Connor,TX and Gulfport, MS for a landfall IMO.


Now that is a very wide basis, but I actually agree with you. It all depends on the strength and speed of this system, the faster and stronger system will be Gulfport area, a slower and weaker system (slower to strengthen) system will be anywheres from Port O'Connor to Vermillion Bay

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#485 Postby KWT » Wed Jul 21, 2010 3:00 pm

Models somewhat shifting northwards with regards to any 2nd landfall. I think with the upper low to the north helping to tug the system via relocations towards the center a more northerly solution is certainly possible, though the motion should stay WNW.

The GFDL/HWRF look too far north IMO.
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Re:

#486 Postby robbielyn » Wed Jul 21, 2010 3:05 pm

KWT wrote:Models somewhat shifting northwards with regards to any 2nd landfall. I think with the upper low to the north helping to tug the system via relocations towards the center a more northerly solution is certainly possible, though the motion should stay WNW.

The GFDL/HWRF look too far north IMO.


Which would put it roughly where at landfall 1st and second
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Re:

#487 Postby ROCK » Wed Jul 21, 2010 3:29 pm

KWT wrote:Models somewhat shifting northwards with regards to any 2nd landfall. I think with the upper low to the north helping to tug the system via relocations towards the center a more northerly solution is certainly possible, though the motion should stay WNW.

The GFDL/HWRF look too far north IMO.




I would say the HWRF and GFDL have not been that good at all this year...Maybe because of the Ops and Para GFS and its struggles....I dont know but I hardly take them into consideration....more weight to the EURO,CMC, then UKMET...GFS and its cousins are last in line....JMO...
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#488 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Jul 21, 2010 3:36 pm

Initialization looks to far South(south of Cuba) on this model but interesting to see the upper air evolution of the ridge

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Re: Re:

#489 Postby KWT » Wed Jul 21, 2010 3:46 pm

ROCK wrote:
I would say the HWRF and GFDL have not been that good at all this year...Maybe because of the Ops and Para GFS and its struggles....I dont know but I hardly take them into consideration....more weight to the EURO,CMC, then UKMET...GFS and its cousins are last in line....JMO...


The GFS is a good model but it depends on the situation. Its a bit dodgy in sdituations where an upper high is eroding away, it tends to be a little too progressive with such features.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#490 Postby kjg123 » Wed Jul 21, 2010 4:05 pm

Does anyone see this storm being similar to Hurricane Erin? Erin formed near the same area and had an UL low near it. Erin struck the Pensacola area with 90 MPH winds??
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#491 Postby Wx_Warrior » Wed Jul 21, 2010 4:06 pm

I must not see what a good percentage of some are. IF this develops, just don't see it being a major player.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#492 Postby ROCK » Wed Jul 21, 2010 4:08 pm

anyone notice the latest GFS ensembles.....very telling IMO...
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#493 Postby Wx_Warrior » Wed Jul 21, 2010 4:11 pm

post it rock, on my blackberry now
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#494 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Jul 21, 2010 4:14 pm

Just took a look...ridge looks to break down the same as the ops. If Bonnie is in the Gulf looks like SE LA or MS coast



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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#495 Postby bbadon » Wed Jul 21, 2010 4:16 pm

Question, Will a developing system in the BOC change any thing in regard to 97L?
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#496 Postby ROCK » Wed Jul 21, 2010 4:22 pm

bbadon wrote:Question, Will a developing system in the BOC change any thing in regard to 97L?


no that stuff will be inland in 48hrs or less...westward into MX....
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#497 Postby HouTXmetro » Wed Jul 21, 2010 4:28 pm

ROCK wrote:anyone notice the latest GFS ensembles.....very telling IMO...


??????
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS

#498 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Jul 21, 2010 4:49 pm

I agree 100%.

Wx_Warrior wrote:I must not see what a good percentage of some are. IF this develops, just don't see it being a major player.
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#499 Postby chzzdekr81 » Wed Jul 21, 2010 6:40 pm

Check out NOGAPS spaghetti model.
Update: Oops, I didn't notice it from last run. It was from 2PM.
Last edited by chzzdekr81 on Wed Jul 21, 2010 6:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#500 Postby antonlsu » Wed Jul 21, 2010 6:42 pm

chzzdekr81 wrote:Check out NOGAPS spaghetti model.


post it
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