BOC system

[srainhoutx]

The NW Caribbean does look interesting tonight. The Yucatan has a way of getting lower levels spinning at times IMO. Perhaps Ivanhater can edit his title. This disturbance was the 'stronger' of both systems on the Para GFS 850 Vorts a few days ago.

[KWT]

Yeah your right about that, seen it many times before the lower levels get tightened up by the Yucatan. I think whilst the odds are slim for this one, it has got great upper conditions and system has got going in less space before.

[lrak]

Looks like a low level spin at 19.5n 92.5w.

[HURAKAN]

Can we change the title to BOC?

TPC 24 hours

[lrak]

I think they're all too busy in the active storm section

Pressure dropped at the BOC buoy http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055

The convection is booming over the little spin!

[KWT]

This one is looking interesting. WEhilst convection isn't that impressive it has a large old circulation much like Alex and there is strong suggestings of a closed LLC underneath the convection in the central southern BoC.

The NHC will have to take this one seriously soon as its under good upper conditions...this part of the basin is well known for pumping out brief TS from such set-ups.

[fwbbreeze]

I was just coming to post to see if anyone was noticing what was going on down in the BOC. I think this has the best shot of becoming the next classified system....if it has enough time!

fwbbreeze

[tailgater]

This one is looking interesting. WEhilst convection isn't that impressive it has a large old circulation much like Alex and there is strong suggestings of a closed LLC underneath the convection in the central southern BoC.

The NHC will have to take this one seriously soon as its under good upper conditions...this part of the basin is well known for pumping out brief TS from such set-ups.

As it moves westward the topography of eastern Mexico will likely tighten the circulation a little more. I can't see how it wouldn't get a mention on the next TWO

[HURAKAN]

Loop - http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1



It has to be mentioned in the next TWO ... looking good

[Ivanhater]

If this does develop..props to the GFS for showing this over a week in advance!

[KWT]

Yeah the only problem is its a big old circulation, these tend to taken a few days typically to get going.

That being said it'll probably have a good 24-36hrs over water and thats enough time IMO to warrent serious attention in terms of development as conditions aloft are pretty good...

[tailgater]

Doesn't look like it gonna be in a big hurry to move inland so it's Possible to get a name out of this one.

[HurrMark]

It could become a TD, but it would have to get organized in a real hurry, since it will go aground in about 24 hours...

[Hurricane]

If this does develop could it hit Galveston?

[lrak]

If this does develop could it hit Galveston?

I think this is a Mexico storm. Pressure dropped again at the BOC buoy and the winds are starting increase as well.

[KWT]

It has enough time IMO to get to 35-40kts, the only thing that would lead to me to question that is the fact the NHC aren't even paying attention to it and its a large system in terms of its circulation.

[tailgater]

This bouy is well to the north of possible LLC. just a 1.5 mb drop over the last 24hrs, but droping no the less.
Conditions at 42055 as of
(3:50 pm CDT)
2050 GMT on 07/21/2010: Unit of Measure: English Metric Time Zone: Station Local Time Greenwich Mean Time [GMT] British Summer Time [GMT+1] Eastern Greenland [GMT-1] Azores [GMT-2] Western Greenland [GMT-3] Atlantic Standard [GMT-4] US/Eastern Standard US/Central Standard US/Mountain Standard US/Pacific Standard Alaska Standard [GMT-9] Hawaii-Aleutian Standard [GMT-10] Samoa Standard [GMT-11] International Date Line West [GMT-12] Western European [GMT+0] Central European [GMT+1] Eastern European [GMT+2] Moscow [GMT+3] USSR Zone 3 [GMT+4] USSR Zone 4 [GMT+5] USSR Zone 5 [GMT+6] USSR Zone 6 [GMT+7] China Coast [GMT+8] Japan Standard [GMT+9] Guam Standard [GMT+10] GMT+11 International Date Line East [GMT+12]
Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.

Wind Direction (WDIR): NE ( 40 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 17.5 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 23.3 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 4.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 7 sec
Average Period (APD): 5.1 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): E ( 89 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.87 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.05 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 80.6 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 83.8 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 76.3 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 86.7 °F

[KWT]

I'd personally jump right in with 30-40% with this given its got time still and good upper conditions.

[lrak]

Its not moving much at all, the NHC discussion at 2pm said its a trough and will be inland by tomorrow morning.

[Ivanhater]

GFS