ATL: INVEST 98L - DISCUSSION

[Aquawind]

Glad it's time over water is limited.. Massive rotation..

[tailgater]

Current Weather Conditions:
Villahermosa , Mexico
(MMVA) 18-00N 092-49W

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Conditions at Jul 21, 2010 - 05:44 PM EDTJul 21, 2010 - 04:44 PM CDTJul 21, 2010 - 03:44 PM MDTJul 21, 2010 - 02:44 PM PDTJul 21, 2010 - 01:44 PM ADTJul 21, 2010 - 12:44 PM HDT
2010.07.21 2144 UTC
Wind from the NW (320 degrees) at 12 MPH (10 KT)
Visibility 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions overcast
Weather Cumulonimbus clouds observed
Temperature 87 F (31 C)
Heat index 95.7 F (35.4 C)
Dew Point 75 F (24 C)
Relative Humidity 66%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.76 in. Hg (1007 hPa)
ob MMVA 212144Z 32010KT 7SM SCT010 SCT017CB OVC090 31/24 A2976 RMK 8/36/ PCPN SW

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[cycloneye]

Looks very good. 20% at 8 PM.

[KWT]

Its got a superb broad circulation thats for sure, whether or not it makes it is very uncertain. GFS says 36hrs over water....

[HurrMark]

Probably will pull a TD 2/Invest 95 and run out of real estate just before it really starts to crank up. Most likely will remain a disturbance...perhaps a TD.

[tailgater]

this was from earlier today @ 1200Z

[antonlsu]

whats the movement on this system

[Cryomaniac]

Cryomaniac, that is why the tropics many times are full of twists and turns and surprises.

Definitely, I think that's part of the reason why a lot of people watch the tropics.

[chzzdekr81]

whats the movement on this system

Looks like WNW to me.

[tailgater]

whats the movement on this system

Fellow Tiger fan, my guess would almost due west from what I saw on the steering charts. But kinda early to tell especially if it does continue to develop.

[StormClouds63]

Looks better than 97L ... but too close to land for much development. Maybe 20-30% at 8 p.m. Perhaps a TD2 clone.

[Ikester]

98L is INFINITELY times better organized than that piece of junk over by the DR, IMO.

[Florida1118]

98L is INFINITELY times better organized than that piece of junk over by the DR, IMO.

And yet 97 is more likly to develop. Oh The Tropics...

[srainhoutx]

Remember the Para and OP GFS sniffed this out almost 2 weeks ago. The Western Gulf is actually the 'hotspot' of the Basin at this time IMO.

[KWT]

Without a doubt thats the case srainhoutx, who knows whether this year will go like 1936...

Anyway good 98L doesn't more then 36hrs out there, conditions are primed for this system, I'd have no doubts if this spent 3, maybe 4 days over water we'd be looking at a hurricane out of it...alas that shouldn't happen.

[Ivanhater]

If we get Bonnie and Colin before July is out that would be 3 named storms by the end of July, that would really hush the slow season talk down. Add on top of that TD2 and 95L which was suspect, that is quite a turn around!

[cycloneye]

Someone mentioned 1936. Almost was all in the BOC and GOM. 16 named storms in total.

[Ikester]

If we get Bonnie and Colin before July is out that would be 3 named storms by the end of July, that would really hush the slow season talk down. Add on top of that TD2 and 95L which was suspect, that is quite a turn around!

I'm waiting to be silenced. I just don't see an apocalyptic season ahead.

[Ivanhater]

If we get Bonnie and Colin before July is out that would be 3 named storms by the end of July, that would really hush the slow season talk down. Add on top of that TD2 and 95L which was suspect, that is quite a turn around!

I'm waiting to be silenced. I just don't see an apocalyptic season ahead.

Apocalyptic? Not sure what that is in reference to, but 18+ is still on track imo

but that getting a tad off topic, so back to 98L

[KWT]

If we get Bonnie and Colin before July is out that would be 3 named storms by the end of July, that would really hush the slow season talk down. Add on top of that TD2 and 95L which was suspect, that is quite a turn around!

Yeah it sure would be, but it goes to show you at this time of year one quick burst can take you from average to well above in a day or two.

That being said I don't think this will become a NS, its just a little too large and there isn't enough focused convection.