ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[lebron23]

40 percent..

[SouthFloridawx]

Convection starting to pop again this evening, huh? Looks much better than it did this morning when I went to work...

[chzzdekr81]

Surprised at the last two. This looked better than it did at 2.

[Florida1118]

So 50% when it looks crappy, 40% when it looks not as crappy? Then again, Looks arnt every thing, but what a let down.

[cycloneye]

Surprised at the last two. This looked better than it did at 2.

The data from the jet may have been the cause for the drop to 40%.

[Aric Dunn]

run 20 images and speed it up... you will see what is likely at tight eddy but has a well defined structure... its very close to being at TD... http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html


you will see the eddy shoot out from under the convection the image below just shows where too look.
[img]http://img811.imageshack.us/img811/5057/goes22252010202hxzska.jpg[img]

I see what I think it is you're getting at, but I can see below that feature clouds that are more indicative of being along a wave axis.

Structurally better than last night, that's for sure. Now if it had some of that nice looking convection it had yesterday. The last few frames do look like the tops aren't getting blown off like they have been all day, though. At least, for now - that convection is pretty new. Too bad the sun is going down on it.

right well it looks like an eddy and below that is another one that may form later.. typical of a sheared system.. one eddy forms as one dies. and if you look closely you will see the convection re firing with it then blowing off also the sharpness of the wave axis is so great that it is near impossible for there not to be eddy's in there. I agree it needs time still but the low level structure is much improved and it is very near TD status. we should have a TD by morning if the trend continues.

[SouthFloridawx]

Mid Level Shear has also decreased since last night. As well as some Upper Level Shear.

[blp]

Surprised at the last two. This looked better than it did at 2.

The data from the jet may have been the cause for the drop to 40%.

I wish they would elaborate on what specifically they saw. I think that definitely was what caused it to go down.

[Fego]

... DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET INDICATE THAT
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS
TIME...

May be the info above makes the difference, considering now they have much accurate data.

[Blown Away]

Do we have the 00z "Best Track" position?

[thetruesms]

... DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET INDICATE THAT
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS
TIME...

May be the info above makes the difference, considering now they have much accurate data.

It surely makes the difference. I haven't gotten a chance to look closely enough at the G-IV data, but the way it's written makes me think that there's concerns about the shear zone associated with the ULL

[KWT]

Well if shear is an issue then fair enough, the data from the Gulf stream planes should give a pretty good indicator of whats happening.

That being said to drop it to 40% maybe a touch rash perhaps, whilst it is sheared its showing enough to suggest that even a small relaxation will be enough to kick this one off.

[gatorcane]

The ULL continues to haul butt towards the west. By tomorrow at this time, should be enough of a gap so that 97L is in a better environment for development, by then should be a few hundred miles SE of SE Florida. Also, the environment is moistening around 97L, the upper-level low is even spinning in more moisture on the W side of the upper-level low as seen by WV loops

[KWT]

Yeah Gatorcane, I'm guessing they believe the models will be right when they keep the shear higher over 97L but I'm far from convinced that'll be the case given how quickly that ULL is trying to move out of the way compared with 97L's motion.

[Bocadude85]

Im starting to think we wont see any development from this

[blp]

ULL looking more elongated in the last few frames.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

[floridasun78]

i take tw over ts any time thank you upperlow

[KWT]

Yeah that ULL is weakening I think.

Something to note there, notice how before the convection was totally linear, now note the convection is spreading round onto the northern quadrant. Thats a sign of lowering shear. Its still on the high side mind you...

[Blown Away]

Do you think the "LLC" is still completely on the W side of the deep convection?

[Bocadude85]

Yeah that ULL is weakening I think.

Something to note there, notice how before the convection was totally linear, now note the convection is spreading round onto the northern quadrant. Thats a sign of lowering shear. Its still on the high side mind you...

Looking at that loop it looks like the ULL may be diving a little to the SW again