ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - MODELS
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS
i think we are going to start seeing the models shift to the west from this point on....just my opinion
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS
not to mention this is going to clip Cuba and the Keys....look at the motion due west...no one seems to notice.... 

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- thetruesms
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Once again models weaken this after landfall and keep it weak and in fact maybe even weakening further...looks like the models must be seeing a new burst of shear in the Gulf...
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS
00z Tropical Model Suite

Code: Select all
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0038 UTC THU JUL 22 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972010) 20100722 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100722 0000 100722 1200 100723 0000 100723 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.4N 72.8W 21.9N 75.7W 22.5N 77.9W 23.3N 80.3W
BAMD 21.4N 72.8W 22.3N 74.8W 23.4N 77.3W 24.7N 80.3W
BAMM 21.4N 72.8W 21.9N 75.1W 22.8N 77.3W 23.9N 79.8W
LBAR 21.4N 72.8W 22.1N 75.3W 23.1N 77.8W 24.2N 80.6W
SHIP 30KTS 31KTS 35KTS 39KTS
DSHP 30KTS 31KTS 35KTS 39KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100724 0000 100725 0000 100726 0000 100727 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 24.4N 82.3W 26.5N 86.4W 28.3N 90.4W 30.5N 93.8W
BAMD 26.1N 83.6W 29.3N 89.8W 32.4N 93.5W 35.4N 95.5W
BAMM 25.1N 82.3W 27.5N 87.3W 29.6N 91.4W 32.3N 94.5W
LBAR 25.5N 83.4W 28.9N 88.2W 32.7N 90.2W 36.0N 87.4W
SHIP 42KTS 47KTS 52KTS 55KTS
DSHP 42KTS 47KTS 42KTS 29KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.4N LONCUR = 72.8W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 20.7N LONM12 = 70.1W DIRM12 = 294DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 19.8N LONM24 = 68.2W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS
redfish1 wrote:i think this is going to be a texas or louisiana storm
Reasoning?

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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS
ericinmia wrote:redfish1 wrote:i think this is going to be a texas or louisiana storm
Reasoning?
it has not gained much strength and the models are starting to see that and plus it is still moving on a westerly path
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS
I wouldnt go all the way to Texas with it but the EURO has been hinting about it all week.....so it cant be discounted.....the model are finally seeing what the EURO is seeing.... a sheared mess with an ULL right in front of it across the GOM....all this talk about its looking better...ULL is weakening, its moving away...yada yada...nice to make assumptions based on sat views but at some point you have got to put some guidance in with it....anyway JMO....
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS
12z EURO from a different perspective. not great resolution but this was the only way you could see the progression across the GOM...
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 112!!step/
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 112!!step/
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS
ROCK wrote:12z EURO from a different perspective. not great resolution but this was the only way you could see the progression across the GOM...
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 112!!step/
i could not pull it up...whats it showing???
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - MODELS
redfish1 wrote:ROCK wrote:12z EURO from a different perspective. not great resolution but this was the only way you could see the progression across the GOM...
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 112!!step/
i could not pull it up...whats it showing???
just showing what it has been showing for days now....same path...weak...try this link..play with it until you get north america
http://www.ecmwf.int/
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- brunota2003
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>>> 18z HWRF landfalls on MS Coast (VERY weak) <<<
That actually looks like it is either a nontropical low pressure area, or at best, a subtropical depression making landfall. Strongest winds shifted wayyy to the NE of the circulation center in the image, with nothing over/to the NW/W/SW/S of the center.
That actually looks like it is either a nontropical low pressure area, or at best, a subtropical depression making landfall. Strongest winds shifted wayyy to the NE of the circulation center in the image, with nothing over/to the NW/W/SW/S of the center.
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