ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[sunnyday]

This is probably a simple question to many of you, but what can be expected weatherwise of a wave versus a depression? One more question--does anyone see a possibility of 97 slowing down at all?
Thank you for your replies.

[clfenwi]

Windsat image from overpass 3 hours ago:

[Bocadude85]

The ULL looks to be weakening some as it dives sw....


http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

[HURAKAN]

vorticity deepening

[ROCK]

ULL is diving right in front of it...shearing off the western side....what looks better?

[Macrocane]

The windsat cearly shows that a circulation is present, the question is, is it a closed one? I think it still has a chance to develop it doesn't look that bad and if the west trend continues it may have a longer life in the Gulf although the models are seeing a bad environment in the Gulf but it could change.

[Steve H.]

Yeah the ULL seems to be elongating from NE to SW. Atmosphere is moistening up a bit between the Bahamas and points west. We'll see.

[MGC]

Conditions above and in front of 97L are quite hostile. It will be till at least Friday before they improve. By then 97L will be approaching Florida and might develop into a TD by then. It is going to take a while for the ULL to either move away from 97L or weaken enough for the shear and dry air to relax. Until then, I expect 97L to remain an open wave. Sorry folks, but conditions are not conducive to TC development in the area of 97L.........MGC

[tolakram]

Looks to me like the ULL is moving in tandem with 97L.

WV Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=30

[Vortex]

Note sure if this has already been posted but the Turks and Caicos are certainly getting their share of Trropical weather...

As of 8pm:


Providenciales, TI (Airport)
Updated: 1 hr 46 min 59 sec ago
75 °F
Heavy Rain
Humidity: 100%
Dew Point: 75 °F
Wind: 30 mph from the ENE
Pressure: 29.87 in (Steady

[StormClouds63]

The fat lady hasn't sung, but chances for development with 97L continue to diminish. ULL might be weakening a bit, but also appears to be diving southwest, continuing to create a hostile upper air environment. Perhaps a chance this wave develops into TD 3, but even that appears unlikely before Friday or Saturday. If it stays in the Florida Straits (no land interaction) maybe an outside chance, but shear in Gulf also expected to be formidable.

98L is probably too close to land to develop beyond a TD.

We might not see Bonnie for another 7-10 days.

[wxman57]

Well, as I look at things tonight, I'm really wondering if that shear is going to drop off tomorrow or not. Possibly not. 97L may have just too much against it for a great chance of development now. I see the models all shifted west to Louisiana, probably more likely if it doesn't develop. My latest track was into the Grand Isle area of Louisiana Sunday afternoon, but it may just be a big rain event for Louisiana.

[HURAKAN]

the night is darkest before daybreak!!

lol

[sgastorm]

Is there a problem with GOES 13? The last image seems to be 0015 UTC. It's now 0200 UTC.

Edit: Apparently problems at Wallops Island. Hope they can fix it soon.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I am starting to lose faith in this one developing to any significant degree. 97L might still have a shot at making TS before reaching Florida if things can really ramp up overnight and the shear can drop tomorrow, but if not then it looks like this will just be a rainy/squally wave or a tropical depression for the sunshine state Thursday night and Friday. The rainy squalls will still cause some problems of course, but unless by unexpected chance we see humberto-like deepening (which I highly doubt), I do not think this one will be be very memorable or destructive.

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Blown Away]

vorticity deepening

Why is it the deepest vorticity does not line up with 97L's "Best Track" position?

[Vortex]

155utc imagery-what a difference a few hours makes..Convection is deepening and it's becoming evident that a surface circulation appears to be forming...It's moving into a more favorable environment per latest charts..If this trend continues Thursday could be a very interesting day across the bahmas...FINALLY it looks like were just about to "Game On"

[HURAKAN]

Danny:



97L:



A comparison. Danny had a "LLC," of course, compared to 97L.

[ConvergenceZone]

Well, as I look at things tonight, I'm really wondering if that shear is going to drop off tomorrow or not. Possibly not. 97L may have just too much against it for a great chance of development now. I see the models all shifted west to Louisiana, probably more likely if it doesn't develop. My latest track was into the Grand Isle area of Louisiana Sunday afternoon, but it may just be a big rain event for Louisiana.

I agree with you wxman. While I don't consider it 100% dead right now, it's getting very close... I think now that it will just remain as a wave. It seems obvious that the shear doesn't want to abate....

[StormTracker]

Well, as I look at things tonight, I'm really wondering if that shear is going to drop off tomorrow or not. Possibly not. 97L may have just too much against it for a great chance of development now. I see the models all shifted west to Louisiana, probably more likely if it doesn't develop. My latest track was into the Grand Isle area of Louisiana Sunday afternoon, but it may just be a big rain event for Louisiana.

wxman57, I have usually just looked, learned & silently praised you for your pinpoint accuracy(and hated it sometimes), but this time I hope your'e right(AGAIN)! My avocado trees need about 2 more months to maturity! Even a TD or TS would just take them all off!!! Please be right(AGAIN)!!!
This post was approved by both of my avocado trees!