ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[Florida1118]

Eh.. models are going further and further south. Looks like we won't be getting any rain here in Orlando

We might get the moisture to get into the state to help rain chances. I think im going to stay on my side of the fense and say 45mph Bonnie.

[dixiebreeze]

21/2345 UTC 21.1N 72.9W T1.0/1.0 97L -- Atlantic

[Macrocane]

I think that code red is possible on the next TWO, and if (a big IF) the organization increases they may wait for the first visible images and possibly they will upgrade it to TD.

[blp]

It seems to me that the orientation of the shear has shifted as the ULL has shifted and it looks to be more SSW than SW. I would seem that this is a more favorable position.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

[blp]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

Center appears to be at 22N and 73.8 looking at this shortwave loop , just on the edge of the convection

I agree with you and I posted an image back a few pages ago circling that area. That is the are I am focusing on as well.

[xcool22]

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HERE UPDATE .SCOTT

[SouthFloridawx]

It seems to me that the orientation of the shear has shifted as the ULL has shifted and it looks to be more SSW than SW. I would seem that this is a more favorable position.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

I agree it's definitely shifted as the ULL has moved farther west and faster than our system is moving west.

http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/opdb/aviation/loops/realtime/atlwv_loope.html

Omit frames 8 - 11

[Stormcenter]

You're not serious right?

If you are then why hasn't 97L developed into a TD or better?

In my unqualified non-professional opinion, I think the shear is highly overrated.

[Recurve]

Key West discussion

OUR EVENING MESO-PLOT SHOWS TROFFING IN THE GULF TO OUR WEST AND THE
ATLANTIC HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE EAST. THE HIGH`S MAIN AXIS LIES
WELL NORTH ALONG THE GEORGIA LINE...BUT THE TROF TO OUR LEE HAS SET
UP A LOCAL NORTH-SOUTH RIDGE AXIS FROM ABOUT GRAND BAHAMA TO SANTA
CLARA CUBA.

THE INFLUENCE OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH IS INCREASING IN THE KEYS. OUR
SURFACE PRESSURE IS RISING AS THE TROF SLIDES FARTHER WEST INTO THE
GULF. WE CAN ALSO ATTRIBUTE SOME OF THE RISE TO THE INCOMING UPPER
LOW EVIDENT ON SATELLITE AND IN THE SOUNDING OBSERVATION ABOVE. THAT
IS...THE CONFLUENT FLOW ON ITS WEST FLANK (NOW COMING OVERHEAD) WORKS
TO CREATE COMPRESSION AND SINKING WITHIN THE COLUMN WHICH HAS BEEN
ARRESTED AND CONCENTRATED AS NOTED ABOVE.

SO THE ADDITION OF THIS AIR FROM ABOVE WORKS TO INCREASE THE SURFACE
PRESSURE. THE SINKING EXPLAINS WHY THE RADAR ECHOES DRIED UP EVEN IN
THIS TURBULENT WIND REGIME WHICH IS USUALLY SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED
COVERAGE ON THE RADAR.

ONCE THE GULF-TROF GETS FAR ENOUGH AWAY THE HIGH WILL RE-ORIENT
ITSELF AND THIS SHOULD ACT TO REDUCE OUR PRESSURE GRADIENT. IN TURN
OUR WINDS SHOULD DECREASE...WHILE RAIN CHANCES REMAIN MINIMAL UNTIL
THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT WAVE OR TROF ON FRIDAY.

[Macrocane]

It looks to me like the ULL is becoming an open ULT and if the trend continues it will be weak and far enough to provide a better environement to 97L as some have stated.

[Stormcenter]

IMO looking at this loop conditions still remain as hostile as they were 4 hours ago or beyond.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

It seems to me that the orientation of the shear has shifted as the ULL has shifted and it looks to be more SSW than SW. I would seem that this is a more favorable position.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

[CourierPR]

You're not serious right?

If you are then why hasn't 97L developed into a TD or better?

In my unqualified non-professional opinion, I think the shear is highly overrated.

Wind shear can help to ventilate a system under the right circumstances.

[Stormcenter]

It's not right now.

You're not serious right?

If you are then why hasn't 97L developed into a TD or better?

In my unqualified non-professional opinion, I think the shear is highly overrated.

Wind shear can help to ventilate a system under the right circumstances.

[boca]

97L might miss Florida all together if it goes due west.

[clfenwi]

Unfortunately, the ASCAT pass this evening (~3 hours ago) more or less covered the same area as the earlier Windsat pass, so no hints of presence/absence of a surface circulation. Does show some bona fide 30 knot winds, however.



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[Florida1118]

97L might miss Florida all together if it goes due west.

Darn. I was looking forward to some rain and a little wind to cool things down. I dont like you wave.

[blp]

You have to admit the sat presentation has improved over the last six hours and it has to do with the shear easing up some.

IMO looking at this loop conditions still remain as hostile as they were 4 hours ago or beyond.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

It seems to me that the orientation of the shear has shifted as the ULL has shifted and it looks to be more SSW than SW. I would seem that this is a more favorable position.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

[LaBreeze]

97L might miss Florida all together if it goes due west.

Darn. I was looking forward to some rain and a little wind to cool things down. I dont like you wave.

I would love to be helpful and send some your way - we don't need it here in SW LA.

[AdamFirst]

[blp]

Nice blowup.