ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

KWT · #1441 Postby **KWT** » Thu Jul 22, 2010 4:09 am

Its not stopped IMO, I think whats happened is the shear has picked up and the convection has hit the brick wall again. The first morning Vis.imagery will either prove or disprove this...but I'm betting the low level turning is at the moment moving away from the convection again.

#1442 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Jul 22, 2010 4:16 am

Latest

Recurve · #1443 Postby **Recurve** » Thu Jul 22, 2010 4:19 am

KWT, I think you have it exactly right, the convection has hit the wall. Keys forecasters are predicting only an open wave with possibly a surface low affecting this area Friday, so we still need to be on guard but I'm less concerned about strong organization taking place before the weather gets here late Thursday into Friday.

KWT · #1444 Postby **KWT** » Thu Jul 22, 2010 4:21 am

Almost back to the linear convection it had before. I'd imagine any LLC/LLT (low level turning) is exposed right now giving what has happened to the convection in the past few hours.

#1445 Postby **jlauderdal** » Thu Jul 22, 2010 4:47 am

im liking my south through the straits forecast from 3 days ago, too much ridge...this system has done well considering the battering ram on to its west.

#1446 Postby **wxman57** » Thu Jul 22, 2010 5:01 am

Looks like it's moving at a fairly good clip to me. Don't focus on that convective hot spot to judge movement, look for the wave axis.

#1447 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Jul 22, 2010 5:02 am

What is your assessment this morning, wxman57.

KWT · #1448 Postby **KWT** » Thu Jul 22, 2010 5:05 am

Yeah Wxman57, I was saying earlier that it looks like its hit a shear wall which is why it looks like the system has slowed down, when in truth the wave is still moving away.

Vortmax1 · #1449 Postby **Vortmax1** » Thu Jul 22, 2010 5:16 am

This has been one of the more interesting TUTT scenarios. And it doesn't look like this one is going to be out of the picture anytime soon:

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
239 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

ANOTHER TUTT LIES NORTH OF HISPANIOLA/WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE
BAHAMAS. THE CONTINENTAL RIDGE...AND ANOTHER ONE OVER THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...WILL FORCE THIS TUTT WEST ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS/CUBA BY 24-30 HRS...TO CONTINUE ACROSS FLORIDA BY 36-42
HRS...TO THEN PULL ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH 72-84 HRS.
THIS FEATURE HAS A FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL REFLECTION...AND THIS
IS TO PERSIST THROUGH 60-72 HRS. THIS TROUGH SUSTAINS THE
NORTHWARD UNDULATION OF THE ATLANTIC ITCZ WHILE DRAWING MOISTURE
ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN/PUERTO RICO/HISPANIOLA. BUT AS THE TUTT
PULLS AWAY...IT WILL LOSE ITS CONNECTION TO THE ITCZ...AND A SHARP
DROP IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS TO RAPIDLY FOLLOW.

#1450 Postby **tgenius** » Thu Jul 22, 2010 5:35 am

So based on what's going on.. I suspect Miami might not even get too much rain out of this system.

Nimbus · #1451 Postby **Nimbus** » Thu Jul 22, 2010 5:35 am

Still looks like an open wave this morning, the shear kept pace overnight.
Maybe we will be lucky enough to have a TUTT move across Florida in tandem with 97L?

Vortmax1 · #1452 Postby **Vortmax1** » Thu Jul 22, 2010 5:51 am

Key West discussion has the TUTT finally accelerating away...I'll have to see it to believe it!

FOR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE RATHER
DISORGANIZED AND SHOWING NO SIGNS OF A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION AT
PRESENT...WILL CONTINUE TO BASE THE FORECAST ON THE IDEA OF AN OPEN
WAVE OR POSSIBLY A WEAK SURFACE LOW PASSING THROUGH THE KEYS REGION
ON FRIDAY. WITH THE TUTT EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AHEAD OF THE
WAVE...THERE MAY BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN A
MORE SYMMETRICAL MANNER ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS...RATHER THAN BEING
LARGELY DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE AS IS THE CASE PRESENTLY.
WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL RAMP POPS UP THROUGH CHANCE TONIGHT BECOMING
LIKELY TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING. WILL ALSO RAISE POPS TO LIKELY ON
FRIDAY. WOULD EXPECT SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO AFFECT
THE KEYS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
SOME GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

KWT · #1453 Postby **KWT** » Thu Jul 22, 2010 5:54 am

Yeah Vortmax1 same here, it did look like it was gaining speed last night for a time but it dipped back SW and pretty much undone that brief increase in forward speed of the TUTT/ULL.

Vortmax1 · #1454 Postby **Vortmax1** » Thu Jul 22, 2010 6:01 am

Yes KWT...I was expecting a totally different satellite presentation this morning when I switched on. But oh no...this has been a real Groundhog Day experience with this one!

Vortmax1 · #1455 Postby **Vortmax1** » Thu Jul 22, 2010 6:05 am

Here's how Miami has it set up:

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY SPREADING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TO WEST. IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY WITH AN ELVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED DAILY SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

#1456 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Jul 22, 2010 6:16 am

1st visible ... at least looks better than yesterday in the morning!!

#1457 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 22, 2010 6:19 am

It looks like it will skirt or even move inland to Cubas north coast.

cwachal · #1458 Postby **cwachal** » Thu Jul 22, 2010 6:20 am

didnt a model show this happening a few days ago... moving across Cuba and into the Caribbean and then through the straight west of Cuba and into the gulf that way???

#1459 Postby **tailgater** » Thu Jul 22, 2010 6:29 am

Looks better to meee!

KWT · #1460 Postby **KWT** » Thu Jul 22, 2010 6:30 am

Need a loop to see where the low level turning is, it maybe that the center has tucked in or its possibly gone totally poof...we'll have to see.

ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

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