ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[rockyman]

So how does this change our track thinking? The "stronger to the right"/"weaker to the left" paradigm only works when there is a weakness to the north. At the moment, the only weakness is over the NE USA, passing the longitude of 97L.

[Hurricane Andrew]

You peoples in S FL, I will have my storm impact forecast soon!!!

Anyway, that sattilite image someone posted a bit up the page really shows how it is organizing.

Based on sattilite, i would think they will upgrade straight to TS.

[KWT]

So we should be getting TS warnings and watches posted at anytime.

I expect that'll happen at 11am. I doubt we get a special advisory unless it ramps up real fast this morning into an obvious TS - most likely TD at 11, TS if and when recon confirms it.

Yeah thats what I think as well, they'll go with 30kts for now until recon proves otherwise.

[Aric Dunn]

Its looking quite good this morning.. no more question on a closed LLC

[americanre1]

So is it possible we might have TD#3 and TD#4 both at the 11 TWO I would say the percentage is actually real high around 80% that both of them will be upgraded at the 11.

If they can get enough observations from ships and land stations do you think they will just go straight to TS Bonnie for this one??

[Thunder44]

000
[b]ABNT20 KNHC 221224
TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
825 AM EDT THU JUL 22 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE THE DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST
BAHAMAS.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BAHAMAS INDICATE
THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS HAS
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND A CLOSED CIRCULATION HAS FORMED.
ADVISORIES ON A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM WILL BE
INITIATED AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC TODAY. THIS ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
INCLUDE TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT
REACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO IN A DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS

[Aric Dunn]

crazy little upper high building over (bonnie) 97L this morning ... I see no reason why the upper environment would not improve since the upper low is still moving away from it ...

[HurricaneBelle]

If they can get enough observations from ships and land stations do you think they will just go straight to TS Bonnie for this one??

Recon's going out in a few hours. I think they'll hold off any TS upgrade until recon's been in the system.

[Ground_Zero_92]

So is it possible we might have TD#3 and TD#4 both at the 11 TWO I would say the percentage is actually real high around 80% that both of them will be upgraded at the 11.

If they can get enough observations from ships and land stations do you think they will just go straight to TS Bonnie for this one??

Definately TD#3 at 11am, they will wait for recon before declaring TS Bonnie, unless convection wraps and intensifies fast.

[Cryomaniac]

The following is the opinion of Cryomaniac and is not based on meteorological evidence or knowledge. As such it should not be used by anyone for any purpose

Looks like we'll almost certainly get Bonnie later today, and possibly even Colin by tomorrow morning depending on what the BOC system does. That would put the season right back on track for 18+ Named storms.

[Frank2]

Avila, Avila - no wonder I became angry with him about 25 years ago...

I'm sorry, but the STWO is much more exciting than what the VIS shows, and there's a HUGH ULL over us (South Florida) at this time - not exactly what I'd call a favorable environment, but the STWO is going to drive the media into a frenzy (and the public):

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

Frank

[Aric Dunn]

another thing the models are all going to shift now that we have a well established and stronger system than all the models previously initialized it since most of them have it as an open wave... with the likely strengthening a more right track is also possible later in the forecast.

[TheBurn]

ADVISORIES ON A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM WILL BE
INITIATED AT 11 AM EDT...

Interesting. So they may go straight to TS here...

[AdamFirst]

Can we throw out the latest model runs?

[Aric Dunn]

Avila, Avila - no wonder I became angry with him about 25 years ago...

I'm sorry, but the STWO is much more exciting than what the VIS shows, and there's a HUGH ULL over us (South Florida) at this time - not exactly what I'd call a favorable environment, but the STWO is going to drive the media into a frenzy (and the public):

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

Frank

that ULL is still racing away from soon to be bonnie so the environment will likely stay the same or improve slightly..

[Aric Dunn]

Can we throw out the latest model runs?

yes throw them all away..

[AdamFirst]

Now we can put those percentage arguments to rest

[tailgater]

The low level flow ahead of TD3 looks like it will take it along the northern coast of Cuba IMHO. Should keep the intensity down.

[Chacor]

[Frank2]

True, but the ULL is helping to increase convection in 97L so when the ULL departs the convection will probably decrease...