jlauderdal wrote:Air Force Met wrote:TheBurn wrote:If they gave it 70% chance 2 days ago and it now is a Tropical Depression... wouldn't that mean they were right? Isn't it 70% chance of development in 48 hours? Just curious.
Yes...but they lowered it to 40%...which in my opinion was a bad call. I would not have lowered it to 40%...especially given how sharp the trof axis was yesterday.
That's sort of like this: If I issued a TAF at 12Z (station forecast) calling for severe thunderstorms at 00Z...then took that out of my forecast at the 20Z update...then at 00Z we got severe thunderstorms...I blew my forecast. It doesn't matter what I WAS forecasting...it matters what I AM forecasting.
If that makes sense.
are we going to get one of your hand drawn maps that I like so much?
Yeah...probably...after I get my morning updates out.