ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[Blown Away]

Will the models shift back north now? That is the question.

I think they're guaranteed to. I'm not speculating where but South Florida seems to be back in the crosshairs

(this is my amateur opinion and not an official forecast, etc.)

Where are you seeing that? I see almost every model going through Lower Keys/Fl Straits.

[Vortmax1]

Current forward motion as of 12Z is mostly WNW...aiming for across the North coast of Cuba. That is only the current tracking. We'll see how it goes as it is forming.

https://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... tab2200108

[jlauderdal]

Will the models shift back north now? That is the question.

I think they're guaranteed to. I'm not speculating where but South Florida seems to be back in the crosshairs

(this is my amateur opinion and not an official forecast, etc.)

Where are you seeing that? I see almost every model going through Lower Keys/Fl Straits.

check posters location before reading posters forecast, just sayin

[SFLcane]

If the 06z plots are correct this will bring possibly a windy day with scattered showers to sfl. Nothing really to get overly concerned about across the mainland. The keys on the other hand could get some signficant weather from this.

[Bocadude85]

This cant be the developing center can it?

http://img27.imageshack.us/img27/8121/2 ... x89h97.jpg

[SouthFloridawx]

Run this loop. It's a WV loop of the CONUS. You can see that as the Short Wave Trough/ULT makes it's way Eastward and into the NE US, that the ULL begins diving more quickly to the West across Florida. My bet is that as the ULT/Shortwave moves out, we'll see the ULL do something different. I'm not sure what that is yet.

Increase the speed of the loop and rock it. You will see the effect that it has on the ULL.



http://www.weather.gov/sat_loop.php?image=wv&hours=24

[wzrgirl1]

I think they're guaranteed to. I'm not speculating where but South Florida seems to be back in the crosshairs

(this is my amateur opinion and not an official forecast, etc.)[/quote]
Where are you seeing that? I see almost every model going through Lower Keys/Fl Straits.[/quote]

check posters location before reading posters forecast, just sayin[/quote]

Yes I do agree with that. Sometimes I am guilty of it too!

[StormClouds63]

So what happens with the ULL? Does it continue to inhibit development or eventually aid in the outflow?

I still think even if this one is named, it could still do a Chris (2006) and dissipate, especially if that ULL doesn't move out.

[AdamFirst]

check posters location before reading posters forecast, just sayin

Don't imply that I'm -removed-....South Florida is still under a threat.

[tolakram]

20 frame loop, high speed. http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=20

Center is moving under the convection, looking better all the time, in my opinion. Looks like shear has, at least temporarily, relaxed some.

[Javlin]

[quote="SouthFloridawx"]Run this loop. It's a WV loop of the CONUS. You can see that as the Short Wave Trough/ULT makes it's way Eastward and into the NE US, that the ULL begins diving more quickly to the West across Florida. My bet is that as the ULT/Shortwave moves out, we'll see the ULL do something different. I'm not sure what that is yet.

Increase the speed of the loop and rock it. You will see the effect that it has on the ULL.
Nice catch! looking at that one would have to think the SW movement might be about to end and the W on again?

[Aric Dunn]

So what happens with the ULL? Does it continue to inhibit development or eventually aid in the outflow?

I still think even if this one is named, it could still do a Chris (2006) and dissipate, especially if that ULL doesn't move out.

well it has begun to aid it.. a small upper ridge is beginning to build over top of it ... well the far western side is still being slightly sheared but the ULL is still moving away faster and its slightly moving wsw which puts it in a better position to aid it..so the small ridge could move over top of it later today which would allow more strengthening.

[Air Force Met]

Oops did not see the new tracks. Looks as if none of the models are pointing to the mainland of South Florida which is good for us, but not good for Gulf of Mexico as there will be no land to interact with the circulation.

IMHO...it was never headed in that direction. All of the models which were pointing to that area were hosed. I've been briefing my staff that this is LA-MS if it deeloped early (as in yesterday)...or CNTL LA - SE TX if it waited until today or tomorrow.

The EURO has been consistent in showing TX. Given the massive nature of this ridge...I think its pretty close.

[Macrocane]

This cant be the developing center can it?

http://img27.imageshack.us/img27/8121/2 ... x89h97.jpg

Well it has a center that's why the NHC released the STWO but if you mean a more organized center like an eyewall I don't think so although that image shows that spot in the center that looks like an eye but it looks too disroganized in visible and IR to be developing an eyewall IMO.

[tailgater]

Oops did not see the new tracks. Looks as if none of the models are pointing to the mainland of South Florida which is good for us, but not good for Gulf of Mexico as there will be no land to interact with the circulation.

IMHO...it was never headed in that direction. All of the models which were pointing to that area were hosed. I've been briefing my staff that this is LA-MS if it deeloped early (as in yesterday)...or CNTL LA - SE TX if it waited until today or tomorrow.

The EURO has been consistent in showing TX. Given the massive nature of this ridge...I think its pretty close.

Not exactly what I wanted to hear, What do you think of the Upper level pattern later this weekend and thanks for posting.

[AdamFirst]

The folks at the weather channel are pretty heavy on a South Florida impact.

They are the weather channel though...where's Cantore headed?

[TexasF6]

Air Force: Could the two storms interact if 98L stalls or drifts north? I don't think the GOM is big enough to get a Fujiwara Effect? Or does the 900 mile factor overtake the limited size of the GOM?

[Roxy]

Oops did not see the new tracks. Looks as if none of the models are pointing to the mainland of South Florida which is good for us, but not good for Gulf of Mexico as there will be no land to interact with the circulation.

IMHO...it was never headed in that direction. All of the models which were pointing to that area were hosed. I've been briefing my staff that this is LA-MS if it deeloped early (as in yesterday)...or CNTL LA - SE TX if it waited until today or tomorrow.

The EURO has been consistent in showing TX. Given the massive nature of this ridge...I think its pretty close.

Even this far out? I've always said if the models are pointing at you this far out you are most certainly safe.

DON'T want a hurricane this year, but some rain (tropical storm/depression) would be ok.

[Bocadude85]

The folks at the weather channel are pretty heavy on a South Florida impact.

They are the weather channel though...where's Cantore headed?

Dont think we will see anything more then a few rain showers.. my guess is that ts warnings will be from deerfield beach south

[tolakram]

I see convection attempting to build north and west of the center. Water vapor loop shows some dry air issues in front of 97L, not sure if or how this will effect development.