ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[KBBOCA]

Looking forward to our resident experts thoughts today.
Sure do miss Derek Ortt !!

Yea What happened with Derek??

There was a thread by Derek in talking tropics last month. He's gotten a job with a private weather forecasting service, and so he discontinued his membership here.

Here's the thread:
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=108032

[jasons2k]

The EURO has been consistent in showing TX. Given the massive nature of this ridge...I think its pretty close.

Thank you, thank you for this. It's been a lonely battle the last couple of days. I'm glad to see you here this morning with your updates.

[SouthFloridawx]

If this indeed tracks through the close to the keys SFL will be on the dirty side of this tropical cyclone which will make for a nasty day tommorow. Anyone else feel to comment on possible affects for mainland sfl.

IMHO... AL03 heads WNW into the Florida Straights. South Florida will be on the dirty side with lot's of rain and wind. Tropical Storm Strength until it heads into the Gulf and the ULL moves away and the ridge digs in. I highly doubt a South Florida hit with this system, but the Keys should take a Spanking. It's time for them to "hunker down" and get ready. Probably Tropical Storm Watches/Warnings for Dade, since the Shear will keep most of the convection to the Northeast of the Circulation. Tropical Storm Watches/Warnings for the Keys and possible a Hurricane Watch there issued tonight, depending on the Strength of the system.



**This is not an official forecast and shouldn't be taken as one. Refer the National Hurricane Center/NWS for actual Track/warnings**

[tolakram]

Improved outflow?

[ROCK]

The EURO has been consistent in showing TX. Given the massive nature of this ridge...I think its pretty close.

Thank you, thank you for this. It's been a lonely battle the last couple of days. I'm glad to see you here this morning with your updates.

hey I have had your back..... but its always good to have a pro MET acknowledge or at last put some weight behind the ECM...

[x-y-no]

Looking forward to our resident experts thoughts today.
Sure do miss Derek Ortt !!

Yea What happened with Derek??

There was a thread by Derek in talking tropics last month. He's gotten a job with a private weather forecasting service, and so he discontinued his membership here.

Here's the thread:
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=108032

He's still a member here, but as a new employee of a private forecasting company, he's probably not free to be publicly posting his analysis. Hopefully that will be amended as time goes by.

[sphelps8681]

of course south florida is in the cone but when the model trend has been south and someone says oh they are guaranteed to switch north it makes people wonder so if you have a reason for them to switch north then we are all ears[/quote]

I was under the impression for the past three days that stronger system = northerly movement tendencies = models shift north?

How does that change now?[/quote]

But what is classified as a stronger system. Does a TD fall in the category of a strong enough system to start a north shift?

[Macrocane]

Improved outflow?

Improved outflow and much better inflow than yesterday as it moved away from Hispaniola.

[RL3AO]

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 75
A. 23/1500, 1800, 2100Z
B. AFXXX 0503A CYCLONE
C. 23/1200Z
D. 24.1N 80.8W
E. 23/1430Z TO 23/2100Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

Sounds like their going with TD3.

[Javlin]

Looking forward to our resident experts thoughts today.
Sure do miss Derek Ortt !!

Yea What happened with Derek??

There was a thread by Derek in talking tropics last month. He's gotten a job with a private weather forecasting service, and so he discontinued his membership here.

Here's the thread:
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=108032

Thanks

[Ground_Zero_92]

Improved outflow?

Sure is getting it's act together.

[Aric Dunn]

Improved outflow?

yes because there is an upper ridge building over it ...
[img]
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shrZ.GIF[/img]

[tolakram]

Just a fun shot of the center, with a new tower building.

[Frank P]

Looks to me that it is still moving WNW and might parallel the Cuba coast through the FL straits, if this motion were to continue... which if it does, should not hinder further development from the land interaction aspect of Cuba...

[rockyman]

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 75
A. 23/1500, 1800, 2100Z
B. AFXXX 0503A CYCLONE
C. 23/1200Z
D. 24.1N 80.8W
E. 23/1430Z TO 23/2100Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

Sounds like their going with TD3.

That recon position is in the Florida Straits...well away from Cuba.

http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source= ... 64&t=h&z=7

[Aric Dunn]

Over the last couple hours it has been moving a little more northerly and the center is very near that island 22.08° N 74.35° W.... the models will likely shift north a little for the 12z.

loop http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... is_floater

[hurricaneCW]

It looks like it's being impacted by about 20 knots of shear right now and that will probably continue. I do think that over time, TD3 will develop into a 60-65mph storm in the gulf. I don't think it's going to do more than that unless something drastically changes. It's going to have an impact on the oil spill zone as well, which is a big problem.

[jlauderdal]

of course south florida is in the cone but when the model trend has been south and someone says oh they are guaranteed to switch north it makes people wonder so if you have a reason for them to switch north then we are all ears

I was under the impression for the past three days that stronger system = northerly movement tendencies = models shift north?

How does that change now?[/quote]

But what is classified as a stronger system. Does a TD fall in the category of a strong enough system to start a north shift?[/quote]

exactly and certainly not guaranteed as poster stated

[Javlin]

Looks to me that it is still moving WNW and might parallel the Cuba coast through the FL straits, if this motion were to continue... which if it does, should not hinder further development from the land interaction aspect of Cuba...

Though alot slower than the ULL.The ULL seems to be booking it looking at WV and seeing that the 97L can't go around it it would seem that little movement might be in order for today?Wonder how that will play with the models?

[RachelAnna]

The EURO has been consistent in showing TX. Given the massive nature of this ridge...I think its pretty close.

Thank you, thank you for this. It's been a lonely battle the last couple of days. I'm glad to see you here this morning with your updates.

Even if it does come to the Texas coast though, models don't project it to be more than a TS, correct? Or do you think we'll see some changes in terms of intensity forecasting?