ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[Bocadude85]

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 75
A. 23/1500, 1800, 2100Z
B. AFXXX 0503A CYCLONE
C. 23/1200Z
D. 24.1N 80.8W
E. 23/1430Z TO 23/2100Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

Sounds like their going with TD3.

That recon position is in the Florida Straits...well away from Cuba.

http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source= ... 64&t=h&z=7

Yup and in my opinion gives a good indication of the track they are forecasting

[tolakram]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Everything is horrid with intensity estimates, but the euro has been darn good with general track. I don't think anyone can say intensity with any certainty, other than to say it appears conditions may continue to be unfavorable for significant development.

[Tireman4]

The EURO has been consistent in showing TX. Given the massive nature of this ridge...I think its pretty close.

Thank you, thank you for this. It's been a lonely battle the last couple of days. I'm glad to see you here this morning with your updates.

Even if it does come to the Texas coast though, models don't project it to be more than a TS, correct? Or do you think we'll see some changes in terms of intensity forecasting?

\
AFM's take at this time:

TUTT's are always badly forecated by the models. One does better by simply observing it for a time and making their own forecast. I think it will back far enough away by Saturday to allow for some development....maybe to a Cat 1. It could make a run at Cat 2 as it nears the coast...but I think the upper winds and the heat content are going to make that difficult.

[mpic]

Have we had any live reports from the Turks/Caicos Islands that I have missed? Or would they be getting any affect now?

[StormClouds63]

Future impact possible for both Florida and Texas ... busy day for Storm2K forum.

[Air Force Met]

Looks to me that it is still moving WNW and might parallel the Cuba coast through the FL straits, if this motion were to continue... which if it does, should not hinder further development from the land interaction aspect of Cuba...

I agree...looks to be moving WNW. Of course...what does one expect with strong S'ly shear?

However...given teh strength of the ridge...it will certainly move W again once it bumps up against it over the next 24 hours. I wouldn't be at all surpised to even see some kind of WSW motion tomorrow. the ridge is massive.

I've analyzed the 500MB from 12Z...and will post it when I get a chance.

[Clint_TX]

Just hit the Enter button Avila!
Man I hate waiting.....

I'm thinking the disco is going to be quite uncertain about long term intensity

[Aric Dunn]

Looks to me that it is still moving WNW and might parallel the Cuba coast through the FL straits, if this motion were to continue... which if it does, should not hinder further development from the land interaction aspect of Cuba...

I agree...looks to be moving WNW. Of course...what does one expect with strong S'ly shear?

However...given teh strength of the ridge...it will certainly move W again once it bumps up against it over the next 24 hours. I wouldn't be at all surpised to even see some kind of WSW motion tomorrow. the ridge is massive.

I've analyzed the 500MB from 12Z...and will post it when I get a chance.

yes please do...

[maxx9512]

NRL site shows 03lL Three meaning depressoin correct?

[rockyman]

21.9/70.5 WNW at 15, 35mph

[Weatherfreak000]

Last satellite image shows a very impressive 97L. We should see a totally different storm by tomorrow morning.

You got that right.

Enjoy your crow naysayers, welcome Bonnie and maybe Colin!

[tolakram]

Clear your cache.

ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
1100 AM EDT THU JUL 22 2010

THE TROPICAL WAVE/DISTURBANCE THAT NHC HAS BEEN TRACKING FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC HAS DEVELOPED A SURFACE
CIRCULATION AND ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE DEPRESSION IS SHEARED AT THIS TIME AND ITS
CENTER IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A CYCLONICALLY CURVED
CONVECTIVE BAND. THE SHEAR APPEARS TO BE RELAXING A
LITTLE...HOWEVER...AS INDICATED BY THE MOTION OF THE HIGH CLOUDS ON
HIGH RESOLUTION IMAGES. THE CYCLONE IS STILL INTERACTING WITH A
STRONG WESTWARD-MOVING UPPER LOW TO THE WEST. THIS PATTERN WOULD
ONLY ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE AS INDICATED IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...BUT THIS FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN. IN FACT...
NONE OF THE MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION.

BECAUSE THE CENTER JUST FORMED...THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN.
THE BEST ESTIMATE IS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 13
KNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A WELL-ESTABLISHED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE ATLANTIC WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 3 TO 4 DAYS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
STRAITS AND THE KEYS AND THEN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. BECAUSE THE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO
INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
THROUGH 4 OR 5 DAYS...ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS WEAKEN THE CYCLONE
EARLIER.

AN AIR FORCE PLANE WILL BE IN THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL HELP
TO DETERMINE IF THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/1500Z 21.9N 75.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 23/0000Z 22.6N 76.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 23/1200Z 23.8N 80.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 24/0000Z 25.0N 83.2W 40 KT
48HR VT 24/1200Z 26.0N 86.5W 40 KT
72HR VT 25/1200Z 28.0N 91.5W 45 KT
96HR VT 26/1200Z 31.0N 94.0W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 27/1200Z 33.0N 95.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS

[cycloneye]

We have an advisory thread so lets post all those over there.

[SunnyThoughts]

[cycloneye]

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Track looks good to me, about what the EURO has shown!

[Weatherfreak000]

Track looks good to me, about what the EURO has shown!

Wasn't the EURO showed a very very weak reflection, and slamming it westward into Mexico?


If you are going to make that claim, wouldn't you make it for the CMC? A much more consistent and accurate model on this storm so far.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

EURO has ALWAYS kept it a weak system!!! Last several runs have had it near LA/TX!!!

[Countrygirl911]

wow i go to bed and wake up to this what a diffrence in a few hours makes. Do you think that TD3 track will shift to the East any.

[HurrMark]

Can't argue with this forecast...in the early going, the Euro seems to really be the model of choice this year.