ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think the NHC track looks pretty good right now. With a weaker storm than once thought possible a couple days ago, and a strengthening ridge, it does indeed look like this could become more of a problem for SE TX/SW LA than I once thought. With that said though, it should probably be a fairly weak system once it gets there, and I currently do not expect to see a hurricane out of this. The biggest problems TD #3/Bonnie will probably cause during its life cycle is to the oil spill area. Large waves and squally weather could definitely mess with operations there for a while, which would not be good. Other than that though, it looks like some wet and breezy conditions are in store for south Florida over the next 1-2 days, followed by the same for LA/TX a few days down the road. Might see some flooding or tornado issues, but luckily the storm appears to be moving fast enough as of now to avoid any major rainfall concerns.

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[SouthFLTropics]

All I've got to say this morning is a BIG thank you to the ULL. If that ULL hadn't have been out there we would probably be looking at a much stronger system heading towards SE Florida...

SFT

[tolakram]

There is a models thread, ya junkies

Center blowup continues...

[Weatherfreak000]

EURO has ALWAYS kept it a weak system!!! Last several runs have had it near LA/TX!!!

Right. Hence my point, its been performing poorly in the short range. TD3 is no longer a weak system.

[Chacor]

NHC wind speed probabilities forecast has Deepwater Horizon oil site as 29% chance of gale/TS force winds in next 5 days, 7% of storm (50 kt) winds, and 1% chance of hurricane force winds.

[srainhoutx]

Model discussion in the Model thread Please. Thanks.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=108611

[jasons2k]

Track looks good to me, about what the EURO has shown!

Wasn't the EURO showed a very very weak reflection, and slamming it westward into Mexico?

If you are going to make that claim, wouldn't you make it for the CMC? A much more consistent and accurate model on this storm so far.

I think those of us nodding towards the Euro the last few days have been less concerned with the strength of the storm depicted, but rather looking at the strength of the ridge. As AFM pointed it, it may take a WSW bend in the track at some point, and that's the ridge steering the storm around its periphery. A stronger storm may want to go poleward, but it's not going to crash right into that massive ridge.

If you don't believe me, just look at the NHC cone. Houston is in it, and Pensacola is not. And I'm not surprised one bit....

[cperez1594]

The ridge might be strong enough to push this system westward on the far left side of the track. Seems like this year as well has been a TX/MX season. That is the last thing the Rio Grande Valley would need as well.

[Aquawind]

Back to the discussion on TD 3.. Yes Mark it does continue to blowup some deep convection at the center!

[Sanibel]

Finally developed a good surface spiral. If it gets out from under the ULL it could get more threatening. The track is good for us, we could use the rain. Bad for the oil spill though.

[Stormcenter]

Honestly it's not a very strong one either.

EURO has ALWAYS kept it a weak system!!! Last several runs have had it near LA/TX!!!

Right. Hence my point, its been performing poorly in the short range. TD3 is no longer a weak system.

[Blown Away]

Track looks good to me, about what the EURO has shown!

Wasn't the EURO showed a very very weak reflection, and slamming it westward into Mexico?

If you are going to make that claim, wouldn't you make it for the CMC? A much more consistent and accurate model on this storm so far.

I think those of us nodding towards the Euro the last few days have been less concerned with the strength of the storm depicted, but rather looking at the strength of the ridge. As AFM pointed it, it may take a WSW bend in the track at some point, and that's the ridge steering the storm around its periphery. A stronger storm may want to go poleward, but it's not going to crash right into that massive ridge.

If you don't believe me, just look at the NHC cone. Houston is in it, and Pensacola is not. And I'm not surprised one bit....

Let me know when your done patting yourself on the back! Let's be clear, if 97L would have deepened into a decent TS 24-36 hours ago then it would have responded to the weakness that is passing over the TD rate now and moved over SFL into the NGOM area. 97L took longer to develop and missed the weakness and will get blasted west by this big ridge. Most of us agreed weak = west, but before today a deeper storm would have turned poleward. EURO called for weak and that is what Texas/LA will get! Enjoy the breeze!!

[KFDM Meteorologist]

I agree!

[bahamaswx]

Just a bit overcast here. Waiting for some rain.

[Weatherfreak000]

Track looks good to me, about what the EURO has shown!

Wasn't the EURO showed a very very weak reflection, and slamming it westward into Mexico?

If you are going to make that claim, wouldn't you make it for the CMC? A much more consistent and accurate model on this storm so far.

I think those of us nodding towards the Euro the last few days have been less concerned with the strength of the storm depicted, but rather looking at the strength of the ridge. As AFM pointed it, it may take a WSW bend in the track at some point, and that's the ridge steering the storm around its periphery. A stronger storm may want to go poleward, but it's not going to crash right into that massive ridge.

If you don't believe me, just look at the NHC cone. Houston is in it, and Pensacola is not. And I'm not surprised one bit....

The EURO always overdoes the ridge. I foresee TD3 getting alot stronger then it suggests it will.


If I were a WGOM resident, I would actually be slightly relieved it developed when it did. If 97L would have made it to 80W and then developed I may be inclined to by into the EURO. But I would do so under the same premise that has won the EURO ANY victories thus far this year. Keep the storm weak.


Concerning Future Bonnie's organization trend man...I might be worried in SFL this could be very potent TS or even a Category 1 tomorrow morning. That ULL is clearing shear out FAST.


If you cannot see that, imagine what this storm looked this this time tomorrow, and NOW.

[Air Force Met]

Track looks good to me, about what the EURO has shown!

Wasn't the EURO showed a very very weak reflection, and slamming it westward into Mexico?


If you are going to make that claim, wouldn't you make it for the CMC? A much more consistent and accurate model on this storm so far.

No...the EURO hasn't moved it to Mexico. Its been very consistent towards TX.

[RL3AO]

EURO has ALWAYS kept it a weak system!!! Last several runs have had it near LA/TX!!!

TD3 is no longer a weak system.

By definition, tropical depressions are weak.

[StormClouds63]

Bonnie (2010) may make landfall very near where it did so back in 1986. Track is a bit different, but landfall location may be pretty close.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Thanks Met. What i mean by EURO showing a weak system is a TD or TS is not a Hurricane.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

EURO has ALWAYS kept it a weak system!!! Last several runs have had it near LA/TX!!!

TD3 is no longer a weak system.

By definition, tropical depressions are weak.

Correct, that is what i meant, A TD or a TS is weak compared to a Hurricane.