ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[JessRomero]

Thanks Met. What i mean by EURO showing a weak system is a TD or TS is not a Hurricane.

What worries me is the longer it is over water and with little shear it might get stronger than we think.... Which i hope is not the case.

[shortwave]

does the llcc look a bit elongated to anyone? seems to be when looking at hi-res vis.

[ROCK]

the ECM over does ridges? since when? 2008 with Ike?

[ronjon]

Since most of the strong winds and weather are on the north side of the center, SFL will still experience tropical storm force conditions. The track is gonna be pretty straight forward along a W-NW position. Looks like the center will cross the middle keys but it could be anywhere from Homestead to Key West.

[cycloneye]

Lets do sustantive posts,not one word or with emoction ones, thanks.

[Sanibel]

It should never get out from under that big ULL. I'm surprised it even formed at all. We've had a strong east wind from the High for 6 days now. Kind of makes it fresh even in the heat.

[caneman]

the ECM over does ridges? since when? 2008 with Ike?

Can we please stop with the Euro thing? Been going on since last year. Makes it hard to come visit this site (in fact I haven't in nearly a year). Lets talk Tropics. If the Euro were the only reliable model that is all the NHC would use. Thank you.

[StormClouds63]

I agree!

You'll apparently have a tropical storm/depression to track with your new software. Look forward to seeing it later tonight on your weather cast.

[tgenius]

So when should Miami start feeling some of the rain from this system? Will driving to work tommorow be a bit of a pain?

[Houstonia]

Two questions:

1) intensity - it's weak now and that's why it has missed its turn to the North - once it gets past S Fl and into the Gulf will it:
a. strengthen and THEN turn northward?
b. continue on its way to the wnw?

2) how intense could it get in the GOM?


And a more general question: Why does it seem that with any storm, the stronger the get the more to the north they turn?

thanks - and sorry if these are stupid questions.

[Comanche]

It should never get out from under that big ULL. I'm surprised it even formed at all. We've had a strong east wind from the High for 6 days now. Kind of makes it fresh even in the heat.

And this is likely the reason it stays at TS throughout the period.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Forgive my ignorance but since when does a tropical system passing thru the straights into a 90 degree bathtub stay weak? I think strength forecast here is a bit underplayed....hope im wrong...

[Weatherfreak000]

the ECM over does ridges? since when? 2008 with Ike?

Can we please stop with the Euro thing? Been going on since last year. Makes it hard to come visit this site (in fact I haven't in nearly a year). Lets talk Tropics. If the Euro were the only reliable model that is all the NHC would use. Thank you.

Great Post. I think you summed up the spirit alot of members have here, and it has caused them to decide to just lurk the forums.

[ROCK]

It should never get out from under that big ULL. I'm surprised it even formed at all. We've had a strong east wind from the High for 6 days now. Kind of makes it fresh even in the heat.

And this is likely the reason it stays at TS throughout the period.

also the interaction with Cuba as the high crunches down on it....I fully expect the system to cross over Cuba at some point and jack up the LLC even more...

[caneman]

I agree Destruction and the ULL is backing off quickly with firm ridge taking hold. Ingredients seem right.

[CaneCurious]

I'm in New Orleans and have to go to Shreveport from Saturday to Wednesday for my son's baseball tournament. I am hesitant on leaving my dogs to the care of my neighbors with even a tropical storm approaching. Do I have something to really worry about?

[dhweather]

Forgive my ignorance but since when does a tropical system passing thru the straights into a 90 degree bathtub stay weak? I think strength forecast here is a bit underplayed....hope im wrong...

Until that ULL gets far away from it, it will not strengthen significantly.

[AdamFirst]

I may be seeing things but I see a NW jog on the last few frames of the visible. Anyone can verify?

[hurricaneCW]

Even if it's forecast to be weak, one should not take things too lately. The tropics are unpredictable and things happen that we can't control. Andrew has dealing with similar conditions to TD 3 with the ULL. Andrew was on the brink of death, but then things changed and history was made. I'm not saying we will see anything close to what happened with Andrew, but nothing is set in stone. Even I believe it won't go past 60-65mph, which is higher than the NHC forecast.

[Weatherfreak000]

I'm in New Orleans and have to go to Shreveport from Saturday to Wednesday for my son's baseball tournament. I am hesitant on leaving my dogs to the care of my neighbors with even a tropical storm approaching. Do I have something to really worry about?

When TD3 is in the Florida Straits in about 24 hours we will have a much better picture of how the storm is going to behave, because we need to account for the amount of intensification it could undergo today with more favorable conditions.