ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[Sanibel]

I wonder if TD#3 is a remnant of one of those fizzled waves off Africa that made it all the way across and developed?

[petit_bois]

Forgive my ignorance but since when does a tropical system passing thru the straights into a 90 degree bathtub stay weak? I think strength forecast here is a bit underplayed....hope im wrong...

it's all about the sheer... sheer is the only reason we don't already have a hurricane at this point.
ULL has been battering this for days and is forcast to stay with this sytem.

If the sheer were to stop... yeah... big trouble.

[RL3AO]

I wonder if TD#3 is a remnant of one of those fizzled waves off Africa that made it all the way across and developed?

Yeah. It developed from a tropical wave.

[HouTXmetro]

I may be seeing things but I see a NW jog on the last few frames of the visible. Anyone can verify?

WNW generally but if anything I see due West in last frames

[Extremeweatherguy]

I may be seeing things but I see a NW jog on the last few frames of the visible. Anyone can verify?

I noticed that too, but I am not sure if it is for real or just some kind of illusion. Hopefully once recon gets out there we will have a much better idea of which way TD #3 is currently moving.

[Comanche]

Ok, I have a significant question for the truly qualified to answer please. We have this ULL currently booking along westward, we have this building ridge filling in, which is the leader as far as trumping the other? I mean say the ULL slows or stalls, will the ridge still build in at some level, or does the ULL moving away create the ridge?

[xironman]

What would be interesting is if the ULL continues to dig as it is backing out. Once to the south it will no longer impede the way it has been.

[Aquawind]

Seems north of the forecast already..

[Bocadude85]

I wouldnt be surprised to see this clip the southern part of Andros Island

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

[Macrocane]

I think that the recon will find a tropical storm, it is looking better organized and actually looks better than Danny last year, so I don't see why it won't be Bonnie on the next advisory unless the shear increases again.

[chzzdekr81]

Wow. I am shocked. I just woke up to a forming tropical storm that is forecast to come straight to my area. (That will probably change though)

[chzzdekr81]

Everyone in the Keys, stay safe!!

[hurricaneCW]

I think that the recon will find a tropical storm, it is looking better organized and actually looks better than Danny last year, so I don't see why it won't be Bonnie on the next advisory unless the shear increases again.

It actually looks better than most storms last year, even being pretty sheared out. I think we could see a tropical storm with recon as well. More thunderstorms are developing near the center and shear has decreased a bit.

[Aric Dunn]

Seems north of the forecast already..

yes it is because it is bumping up against the ridge and a small weakness in the ridge is just north of it.. the weakness is not enough to turn it a lot but in the short term a 295 motion is possible..

[SouthFloridawx]

I'm not surprised if Recon finds Tropical Storm Bonnie...

[jasons2k]

If I were a WGOM resident, I would actually be slightly relieved it developed when it did. If 97L would have made it to 80W and then developed I may be inclined to by into the EURO. But I would do so under the same premise that has won the EURO ANY victories thus far this year. Keep the storm weak.

Yep, I agree with you there. FWIW I didn't expect this to develop much until it did get to 80W, so I expected the ultimate track to be a bit west of where the NHC has it (the slower, weaker "loop track" I was on)

Still may be a possibility but if this does get going now, I'll have my doubts. I will be watching that WSW bend (if any) very closely down the road. Once that's done and over, I think it will then just be a matter of extrapolating around the ridge straight to landfall.

[Aric Dunn]

that upper low is still speeding away from it and the upper high is starting to position itself over TD3... notice the change in the flow on the western side of TD3 it was south to north earlier this morning and now it has turned SE to NW .. if this keeps up then we may see a stronger system... also notice the dry air is slowly filling in...

also another sign the shear is lessening is the convection wrapping around to the North and northwest side of TD 3
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

[brunota2003]

I see a nice, recent, convective burst about right overtop of the center, and I believe that may partly be responsible for the northward lift. I wouldn't be surprised to see convection wane down during the day, while clustering near/over the llc, then once it has reined in the convection and gotten more organized, the convection should redevelop deeply. Note: I'm not a promet, just a user, so take what I have to say with a grain of salt!

[Bocadude85]

Seems north of the forecast already..

yes it is because it is bumping up against the ridge and a small weakness in the ridge is just north of it.. the weakness is not enough to turn it a lot but in the short term a 295 motion is possible..

Whats your thinking on its first potential landfall? Lower Middle or Upper Keys?

[JPmia]

Based on current movement I could see this clipping the southern tip of the Florida peninsula. JMO.