ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[dhweather]

The low level circulation looks much better defined in the last few frames on visible, may be Bonnie soon

[HURRICANELONNY]

Systems like this that is getting SW shear. You're better off getting the center then the NE quadrant. Which of course I could get. If the center crosses the keys. As of now it would be a breezy partly sunny day in the keys. While I would get all the wind and rain.

[Aric Dunn]

Seems north of the forecast already..

yes it is because it is bumping up against the ridge and a small weakness in the ridge is just north of it.. the weakness is not enough to turn it a lot but in the short term a 295 motion is possible..

Whats your thinking on its first potential landfall? Lower Middle or Upper Keys?

well one thing we cannot forget about is the placement of the convection... with all the new convection firing on the north side and convection lacking on the south side... the center will have a tendency to be pulled closer to the convection and in this case it seems that its being pulled northerly under the convection .. so that is leading to it already being off the forecast track and it should stair step like most systems do. with that said I think the NHC track is in general good and thats why they have error cones. I am tending toward the upper side of the of come for the above reason. say anywhere from the southern tip of florida to the straights..

[HouTXmetro]

That convective burst is NOT the center but it is rotating partially around it hence giving the appearance of a NNW movement. please look at the VIS. the center is pretty much on track. JMO

[Stormcenter]

TD3 is pretty much following the ULL. It continues to get better organized but will still have an uphill battle throughout it's existence unless things drastically change. IMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html

[Bocadude85]

Based on current movement I could see this clipping the southern tip of the Florida peninsula. JMO.

Yea I dont think its impossible for it to clip mainland monroe county

[tolakram]

Convection continuing to wrap, by all appearances anyway.



Water Vapor loop. Look at the outflow of TD3 and the ULL scooting fast.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=20

[Steve]

TD3 is pretty much following the ULL. It continues to get better organized but will still have an uphill battle throughout it's existence unless things drastically change. IMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html

Read what Aric said a few of his posts up. It's what I call classic pattern reversal. While I personally think there will be enough interference to keep TD #3 from getting super strong (it is, afterall, July), when the Upper Low peels off W or SW of a tropical system, it often leads to building upper high pressure in its wake. This would be a much scarier scenario in another 30-45 days.

[Hurricane]

Should the path cone shift a lot the next few days?

[jasons2k]

Local radar with NHC plots...

[AdamFirst]

Should the path cone shift a lot the next few days?

Sure it can. The NHC has said the forecast for both track and intensity is highly uncertain

[chzzdekr81]

Should the path cone shift a lot the next few days?

It could. I think it may go just a little more west than expected.

[caneman]

Should the path cone shift a lot the next few days?

It could. I think it may go just a little more west than expected.

Care to give some reasoning?

[StormClouds63]

Right in the bulls-eye of the projected 5-day path ... which probably isn't a bad thing. This track will likely change several times in the next few days.

However, once the ridge builds in, it's simply going to go under and then around the edge of the high. Where does the western edge of the high erode? Will the ULL have an effect on the ultimate path of the system or not?

[Stormcenter]

IMO I don't think that will be the case with TD3. I'm not so sure the ULL will peel
off further enough away. That is why I think the models aren't projecting this to become a significant system (Cat.2 or higher) "right now". There will be enough shear and dry air to
contain TD3 to at max a strong TS to min. Hurr. at landfall. The time of year (July) I don't think is as imprtant as the ULL. We shall see.

TD3 is pretty much following the ULL. It continues to get better organized but will still have an uphill battle throughout it's existence unless things drastically change. IMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html

Read what Aric said a few of his posts up. It's what I call classic pattern reversal. While I personally think there will be enough interference to keep TD #3 from getting super strong (it is, afterall, July), when the Upper Low peels off W or SW of a tropical system, it often leads to building upper high pressure in its wake. This would be a much scarier scenario in another 30-45 days.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

And I am thinking the cone will shift back east, due to a stronger system having a more poleward bias. It will work around the periphery of the ridge, but a stronger storm will fight it the entire way and find every small weakness, vs. a weaker storm that will just meander along within its general influence, without butting right up against it so hard. Weaker-more tx bound. Stronger-upper gulf coast.

I'm still sticking with my prior forecast. So far, I see nothing to change what I was seeing before.

[Air Force Met]

I agree Destruction and the ULL is backing off quickly with firm ridge taking hold. Ingredients seem right.

Indeed...shear is lessening by the moment. I don't see it totally relaxing...but it is as I posted yesterday...becoming more SE'ly shear and now the cirrus is certainly expanding to the NW. The ULL is backing out of the way quickly. Will probably be a favorable environment by Saturday. Should give it a day or so to strengthen.

[HouTXmetro]

Should the path cone shift a lot the next few days?

It could. I think it may go just a little more west than expected.

Care to give some reasoning?

It it goes into Cuba as some of the models predict.....more West and Weak. ALso if the High builds in stronger.

[tailgater]

Looks like it's gonna be an exposed TD soon.Still pretty dry near the center. Just some high clouds over the top right now.

[rockyman]

Keep in mind that final landfall is almost within the THREE day cone, so I wouldn't expect drastic shifts in the forecast track.