ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[Aric Dunn]

yeah as I track the center reforming/migrating nearly due north atm i am more confident that recon will fix a center near or above 23N before they leave ... or before it starts moving wnw again..

[KFDM Meteorologist]

I hate to (but I'm going to anyway) beat a dead horse on this but TD3 is still
a struggling system. Yes the presentation has improved tremendously compared to yesterday and of course now it's a TD. But it still has a mostly exposed center and is dealing with shear/dry air. I'm not saying things may not improve in the short term (tomorrow)for TD3 but long term it still doesn't look good. IMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

I hate to (but I'm going to anyway) beat a dead horse on this but TD3 is still
a struggling system. Yes the presentation has improved tremendously compared to yesterday and of course now it's a TD. But it still has a mostly exposed center and is dealing with shear/dry air. I'm not saying things may not improve in the short term (tomorrow)for TD3 but long term it still doesn't look good. IMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

12Z EURO agrees with you to. Keeps a weak system (TD/TS) then weakens it as it approaches SW LA.

[jhpigott]

yeah as I track the center reforming/migrating nearly due north atm i am more confident that recon will fix a center near or above 23N before they leave ... or before it starts moving wnw again..

MWatkins is saying over on the recon discussion thread that it looks like the center is closer to 22.1N based upon the data

[Aquawind]

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
SURROUNDING WATERS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC
WATERS ADJACENT TO THE FLORIDA KEYS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AND THEN
IN THE FLORIDA KEYS LATER FRIDAY MORNING.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/WTUS82-KKEY.shtml

Well you have a few hours of daylight today yet..never know how breezey it might be in the morning..

[Aric Dunn]

another side note here. the 3 models that have consistently been calling for a brief NW motion ( GFDL, HWRF,CMC) are doing a better job atm..

[curtadams]

The RGB loop showed the center putting up convection and the convection being blown away. Right now I think it's a hybrid storm, with the power coming from the arc of storms around the center but some distance away. I don't think the center will reform in the very near future (next day or so) because any center will face the shear+dry middle air combination.

[Aric Dunn]

yeah as I track the center reforming/migrating nearly due north atm i am more confident that recon will fix a center near or above 23N before they leave ... or before it starts moving wnw again..

MWatkins is saying over on the recon discussion thread that it looks like the center is closer to 22.1N based upon the data

right i said recon will likely fix a center around 23N by the time they leave...because I dont believe it done reforming/migrating ..

[HURAKAN]

curtadams, there's a difference between sheared and hybrid

[gatorcane]

looks like it is gaining lattitude....more of a true WNW or NW relocation>?

[Nimbus]

We should be grateful it didn't blow up into something major this close to Florida. Hopefully the most they will need are tropical storm warnings. In a way the ridge keeping the track south isn't such a good thing. If the ridge had weakened along the lines of the earlier forecast the storm would not have so much time back out over the gulf to develop.

[jlauderdal]

For some reason I'm still thinking the AL/FL. stateline.

Keep in mind that final landfall is almost within the THREE day cone, so I wouldn't expect drastic shifts in the forecast track.

WAY too far east...IMO. I am thinking more towards the TX/LA state line. A lot will depend on the shear and if the center tries to nudge N'ward towards convection during the next day or two...but that ridge is MASSIVE...and it isn't going anywhere anytime soon.

now we are talking, that says it all right there folks

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Conditions in the GOM may not be favorable for strengthing.

[redfish1]

Conditions in the GOM may not be favorable for strengthing.

do you think it could make hurricane status???????

[Bocadude85]

Looks like maybe some banding is starting to develop

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-rb.html

[I-wall]

Conditions in the GOM may not be favorable for strengthing.

What are the inhibiting factors?

[jlauderdal]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rb.html

wow is this moving nw and not wnw or just a wobble

actually it isnt moving much according to the NHC

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Conditions in the GOM may not be favorable for strengthing.

What are the inhibiting factors?

Shear could be.

[jlauderdal]

I want wind rain and booooom[/quote]
If you u want boom you need a hybrid my friend ts not usually have thunder or lightning[/quote]

then go to oklahoma for your boom, tropical systems are warm core, thunder and lightning highly unlikely

[South Texas Storms]

Conditions in the GOM may not be favorable for strengthing.

What are the inhibiting factors?

Shear could be.

KFDM do you think we will get a lot of rain from td 3 here from SA to HOU?

[Hurricane]

I'm trusting my KFDM meteorologists and Air Force Met with this system. Watch out SETX/SWLA!!!