ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION
Moderator: S2k Moderators
- Ivanhater
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 11162
- Age: 38
- Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
- Location: Pensacola
Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE - DISCUSSION
Recon is finding the center well north of the last fix. Don't think it relocated but moved closer to the convection. These newly formed storms can be tricky at first.
0 likes
Michael
- Evil Jeremy
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5463
- Age: 32
- Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
- Location: Los Angeles, CA
Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE - DISCUSSION
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
TD3 is showing it's organization, but only because it is loosing convection to hide under. Until the convection starts popping up some more, I don't see much strengthening going on. I think a 40 MPH TS going through the Keys is most likely around now. SFL is going to get a little drenching though. The TS watches as north as Lake O shouldn't be necessary IMO, but better to be safe. The future track is where it becomes confusing. On one hand, you have a strong and sturdy ridge that shouldn't move out of the way for a moderate TS. On the other hand, its hard to argue against tight model agreement 5 days out. Next NHC cone should be interesting, but I would say the upper half of the Texas coast line should watch this one closely, and expect a moderate to strong TS. A hurricane is possible, but not likely IMO.
0 likes
Frances 04 / Jeanne 04 / Katrina 05 / Wilma 05 / Fay 08 / Debby 12 / Andrea 13 / Colin 16 / Hermine 16 / Matthew 16 / Irma 17
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 7183
- Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
- Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
- Contact:
Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE - DISCUSSION
Evil Jeremy wrote:The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
TD3 is showing it's organization, but only because it is loosing convection to hide under. Until the convection starts popping up some more, I don't see much strengthening going on. I think a 40 MPH TS going through the Keys is most likely around now. SFL is going to get a little drenching though. The TS watches as north as Lake O shouldn't be necessary IMO, but better to be safe. The future track is where it becomes confusing. On one hand, you have a strong and sturdy ridge that shouldn't move out of the way for a moderate TS. On the other hand, its hard to argue against tight model agreement 5 days out. Next NHC cone should be interesting, but I would say the upper half of the Texas coast line should watch this one closely, and expect a moderate to strong TS. A hurricane is possible, but not likely IMO.[/quote
based on the recent trends in both location and organization i would think a forecast adjustment is in quick order
0 likes
- StormTracker
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2903
- Age: 59
- Joined: Thu Jun 29, 2006 6:06 am
- Location: Quail Heights(Redlands), FL.
Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE - DISCUSSION

BUMP!
Ok so, if the recon shows the center at a more northerly position & there is a weakness or erosion of the high at landfall time, and the storm finds that weakness, technically this storm could end up about where Andrew came onshore! Does that make any sense?
0 likes
Something's wrong when you regret, things that haven't happened yet!
- Bocadude85
- Category 5
- Posts: 2991
- Age: 38
- Joined: Mon Apr 18, 2005 2:20 pm
- Location: Honolulu,Hi
Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE - DISCUSSION
jlauderdal wrote:Evil Jeremy wrote:The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
TD3 is showing it's organization, but only because it is loosing convection to hide under. Until the convection starts popping up some more, I don't see much strengthening going on. I think a 40 MPH TS going through the Keys is most likely around now. SFL is going to get a little drenching though. The TS watches as north as Lake O shouldn't be necessary IMO, but better to be safe. The future track is where it becomes confusing. On one hand, you have a strong and sturdy ridge that shouldn't move out of the way for a moderate TS. On the other hand, its hard to argue against tight model agreement 5 days out. Next NHC cone should be interesting, but I would say the upper half of the Texas coast line should watch this one closely, and expect a moderate to strong TS. A hurricane is possible, but not likely IMO.[/quote
based on the recent trends in both location and organization i would think a forecast adjustment is in quick order
Care to elaborate a little more?
0 likes
Re: Re:
mvtrucking wrote:
well in that case play ball all night so the track can shift farther north please lol!!!!!!!!!







So, you want this system?[/quote]
I wouldn't wish no power and long lines on anybody, as hot as this summer has been. Believe me, you don't want it.[/quote]
You got that right. Only someone who has little value for property or is ignorant as to the real life destruction these storms cause would actually want one to hit their home. Sheer hot, boring misery for several days to weeks or longer.
0 likes
- Bocadude85
- Category 5
- Posts: 2991
- Age: 38
- Joined: Mon Apr 18, 2005 2:20 pm
- Location: Honolulu,Hi
Re:
canes04 wrote:A slowdown + NE relocation = possible Hurricane for SFL.
Also, no sleep tonight.
lol I dont think it means a possible hurricane
0 likes
- Ivanhater
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 11162
- Age: 38
- Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
- Location: Pensacola
Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE - DISCUSSION
New convection firing over the center


0 likes
Michael
-
- Admin
- Posts: 20012
- Age: 62
- Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
- Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)
Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE - DISCUSSION
StormTracker wrote::uarrow:
BUMP!
Ok so, if the recon shows the center at a more northerly position & there is a weakness or erosion of the high at landfall time, and the storm finds that weakness, technically this storm could end up about where Andrew came onshore! Does that make any sense?
No one knows for sure. It appears you're asking that if it comes onshore near where Andrew hit will it come on shore near where Andrew hit.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
0 likes
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
-
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 125
- Age: 44
- Joined: Thu Jun 17, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Port Arthur, Tx
Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE - DISCUSSION
looking at the last few frames it looks to me like it is moving wnw or even w
0 likes
- AdamFirst
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2491
- Age: 36
- Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:54 am
- Location: Port Saint Lucie, FL
Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE - DISCUSSION
redfish1 wrote:looking at the last few frames it looks to me like it is moving wnw or even w
It's clearly moving west-northwest if not northwest.
0 likes
Dolphins Marlins Canes Golden Panthers HEAT
Andrew 1992 - Irene 1999 - Frances 2004 - Jeanne 2004 - Wilma 2005 - Fay 2008 - Isaac 2012 - Matthew 2016 - Irma 2017 - Dorian 2019 - Ian 2022 - Nicole 2022 - Milton 2024
Andrew 1992 - Irene 1999 - Frances 2004 - Jeanne 2004 - Wilma 2005 - Fay 2008 - Isaac 2012 - Matthew 2016 - Irma 2017 - Dorian 2019 - Ian 2022 - Nicole 2022 - Milton 2024
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 1704
- Age: 35
- Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2006 7:30 pm
- Location: Salt Lake City, Utah
Re: Re:
Agua wrote:I wouldn't wish no power and long lines on anybody, as hot as this summer has been. Believe me, you don't want it.
You got that right. Only someone who has little value for property or is ignorant as to the real life destruction these storms cause would actually want one to hit their home. Sheer hot, boring misery for several days to weeks or longer.
I don't think he says he wants a hurricane. A minor tropical storm won't cause weeks-long power outages and hours-long gas lines.
lebron23 wrote:Why if the models are trending north everyone still thinks this system is headed for texas or the border?
The ridge is forecast to build very strongly over the Gulf of Mexico and could still push this briefly SW or SSW.
0 likes
- Tireman4
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5853
- Age: 59
- Joined: Fri Jun 30, 2006 1:08 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
Thanks Ticka from another channel:
email from Jeff Lindner thursday afternoon:
Tropical depression forms in the SE Bahamas.
A threat to TX/LA coasts late this weekend.
A Tropical Storm Warning is issued for the coast of FL from Golden Beach to Key West on the E coast and from Bonita Beach southward on the west coast.
Discussion:
The tropical wave being followed (97L) the past several days has developed a well defined surface circulation and deep convection and it upgraded to a tropical depression over the SE Bahama Islands. Visible satellite images show a well defined center exposed on the W and SW side of the deeper convection in a classic upper level shear pattern. The upper level low NW of the system is hampering development at the moment and this system should move WNW in tandem with the TD.
Track:
Global forecast models are in fairly tight agreement on a general WNW track into the eastern Gulf of Mexico and then into the central and NW Gulf of Mexico over the next 72-96 hours. General track reasoning supports this track as the system is embedded south of a intensifying ridge of high pressure over the SE US which will guide the system mainly WNW to landfall. On this track the storm will approach the SE TX/SW LA coast late Sunday night/early Monday morning. On this track adverse conditions will impact the entire oil spill area.
Intensity:
Forecast models are not aggressive with the development of this system as the large upper level low to its west will continue to impart shear of the tropical cyclone. NHC brings the storm to 50mph over the central Gulf of Mexico and all forecast models keep it at or below 60mph until landfall. Should upper level shear over the system weaken, then additional intensification would be possible, but this is not currently forecast.
Impacts:
Will take a detailed look at impacts Friday morning. Right now at least an increase in rain chances and coastal winds is likely…but worst of the weather may end up NE/E of our region with any kind of sheared tropical threat moving just ENE of our region. Current landfall location is reasonable within 60 miles either side of the TX/LA border with most of the weather aimed to the east of the center.
email from Jeff Lindner thursday afternoon:
Tropical depression forms in the SE Bahamas.
A threat to TX/LA coasts late this weekend.
A Tropical Storm Warning is issued for the coast of FL from Golden Beach to Key West on the E coast and from Bonita Beach southward on the west coast.
Discussion:
The tropical wave being followed (97L) the past several days has developed a well defined surface circulation and deep convection and it upgraded to a tropical depression over the SE Bahama Islands. Visible satellite images show a well defined center exposed on the W and SW side of the deeper convection in a classic upper level shear pattern. The upper level low NW of the system is hampering development at the moment and this system should move WNW in tandem with the TD.
Track:
Global forecast models are in fairly tight agreement on a general WNW track into the eastern Gulf of Mexico and then into the central and NW Gulf of Mexico over the next 72-96 hours. General track reasoning supports this track as the system is embedded south of a intensifying ridge of high pressure over the SE US which will guide the system mainly WNW to landfall. On this track the storm will approach the SE TX/SW LA coast late Sunday night/early Monday morning. On this track adverse conditions will impact the entire oil spill area.
Intensity:
Forecast models are not aggressive with the development of this system as the large upper level low to its west will continue to impart shear of the tropical cyclone. NHC brings the storm to 50mph over the central Gulf of Mexico and all forecast models keep it at or below 60mph until landfall. Should upper level shear over the system weaken, then additional intensification would be possible, but this is not currently forecast.
Impacts:
Will take a detailed look at impacts Friday morning. Right now at least an increase in rain chances and coastal winds is likely…but worst of the weather may end up NE/E of our region with any kind of sheared tropical threat moving just ENE of our region. Current landfall location is reasonable within 60 miles either side of the TX/LA border with most of the weather aimed to the east of the center.
0 likes
Re:
lebron23 wrote:Why if the models are trending north everyone still thinks this system is headed for texas or the border?
I think the ridge is what may be influencing the westward trend. ( Please correct me if I am wrong

0 likes
- StormTracker
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2903
- Age: 59
- Joined: Thu Jun 29, 2006 6:06 am
- Location: Quail Heights(Redlands), FL.
Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE - DISCUSSION
tolakram wrote:StormTracker wrote::uarrow:
BUMP!
Ok so, if the recon shows the center at a more northerly position & there is a weakness or erosion of the high at landfall time, and the storm finds that weakness, technically this storm could end up about where Andrew came onshore! Does that make any sense?
No one knows for sure. It appears you're asking that if it comes onshore near where Andrew hit will it come on shore near where Andrew hit.The ridge is fairly strong but only effects "taller" storms. Center relocations under sheared convection can certainly happen, but are extremely unpredictable. Bottom line, never take your eyes off of it and be prepared from day 1 of the season.
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Mark, what I'm saying is that it seems like the track should technically shift to the right(east),and the landfall point could possibly be like Homestead or somewhere in that area instead of the top of the Keys!
0 likes
Something's wrong when you regret, things that haven't happened yet!
- Cape Verde
- Category 2
- Posts: 564
- Age: 70
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:53 pm
- Location: Houston area
Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE - DISCUSSION
As long as the intensity forecast is trustworthy, I'm less concerned with the path.
Keeping this in context, it's going to mess with the Macondo containment effort regardless at this point, but I hope it won't generate the kind of wave action that could bring any significant amounts of oil into the marshes and beaches. It's going to have some effect, though. We know that.
Keeping this in context, it's going to mess with the Macondo containment effort regardless at this point, but I hope it won't generate the kind of wave action that could bring any significant amounts of oil into the marshes and beaches. It's going to have some effect, though. We know that.
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests