ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[vbhoutex]

Search has been disabled for the time being due to board traffic.

[Aric Dunn]

I love that Ne motion/reforming of the center.. I dont think its done yet..

[DTWright]

Current landfall location is reasonable within 60 miles either side of the TX/LA border with most of the weather aimed to the east of the center.

Let's see center is roughly 1300 miles away and they are forecasting landfall within a 120 mile area. Need to let these guys make all forecasts from this point on. Ha Ha

[redfish1]

I wouldn't wish no power and long lines on anybody, as hot as this summer has been. Believe me, you don't want it.

You got that right. Only someone who has little value for property or is ignorant as to the real life destruction these storms cause would actually want one to hit their home. Sheer hot, boring misery for several days to weeks or longer.

I don't think he says he wants a hurricane. A minor tropical storm won't cause weeks-long power outages and hours-long gas lines.

Why if the models are trending north everyone still thinks this system is headed for texas or the border?

The ridge is forecast to build very strongly over the Gulf of Mexico and could still push this briefly SW or SSW.

i was thinking the exact same thing...i totally agree we may see a dive to the sw or ssw briefly

[chzzdekr81]

Just because the models shift north it doesn't mean that's where the storm is going. I still think this is coming in my area. The cone should go up next update, but I'm sure tomorrow the models will shift south again. North, south, north, south, north, south...

[x-y-no]

In a related and unrelated topic, what happened to the search thing that allowed us to see the latest threads?

Searches create a lot more load than simple access and posting. When the load gets heavy, we have to disable it or face the possibility of the site overloading.

[Ivanhater]

I love that Ne motion/reforming of the center.. I dont think its done yet..

Yeah Aric, it's probably not done relocating for now. These newly formed system are a headache for the NHC.

[Tireman4]

Current landfall location is reasonable within 60 miles either side of the TX/LA border with most of the weather aimed to the east of the center.

Let's see center is roughly 1300 miles away and they are forecasting landfall within a 120 mile area. Need to let these guys make all forecasts from this point on. Ha Ha

You can say what you want, but I do trust Jeff Lindner. He is a member ( At least I think he is) and a doggone good meteorologist.

[HURAKAN]

In a related and unrelated topic, what happened to the search thing that allowed us to see the latest threads?

Searches create a lot more load than simple access and posting. When the load gets heavy, we have to disable it or face the possibility of the site overloading.

Search has been disabled for the time being due to board traffic.

Thanks. I really like that feature. I hope it's back as soon as TD 3/Bonnie is gone!!

[Bocadude85]

I love that Ne motion/reforming of the center.. I dont think its done yet..

How big of an effect will this have on future track?

[gatorcane]

A slowdown + NE relocation = possible Hurricane for SFL.

Also, no sleep tonight.

Starting to wrap some deep red convection on the west side, well on its way to Bonnie....though hurricane for SFL is still not likely

[Aric Dunn]

I love that Ne motion/reforming of the center.. I dont think its done yet..

How big of an effect will this have on future track?

well essentially the forecast reasoning is the same .. just take the track exactly the way it is and shift it north..

[TwisterFanatic]

A slowdown + NE relocation = possible Hurricane for SFL.

Also, no sleep tonight.

Hurricane??????

[redfish1]

I love that Ne motion/reforming of the center.. I dont think its done yet..

How big of an effect will this have on future track?

not much in my opinion i think the high is going to keep it from gaining much latitude and possibly send this sw or ssw at one point in time

[fci]

A slowdown + NE relocation = possible Hurricane for SFL.

Also, no sleep tonight.

Whoa!
Too large a leap to say a possible Hurricane for SFL.
Nothing indicates that possibility at this point.

[poof121]

I love that Ne motion/reforming of the center.. I dont think its done yet..

How big of an effect will this have on future track?

not much in my opinion i think the high is going to keep it from gaining much latitude and possibly send this sw or ssw at one point in time

WSW, maybe SW. I really doubt SSW. I don't think the ridge is quite that strong.

[imetrice]

Forgive my ignorance, but I am confused about the intensity forcasting of this storm. Are they still expecting it to make landfall as a weak system/tropical storm, or is there any possibilty that this coud become a hurricane?

[chzzdekr81]

Forgive my ignorance, but I am confused about the intensity forcasting of this storm. Are they still expecting it to make landfall as a weak system/tropical storm, or is there any possibilty that this coud become a hurricane?

15% it could become a hurricane according to NHC.

[tolakram]

Mark, what I'm saying is that it seems like the track should technically shift to the right(east),and the landfall point could possibly be like Homestead or somewhere in that area instead of the top of the Keys!

I don't think the models will show a southerly motion, so yes, if the center shifts north you can probably take the track lines and, without changing the angle, simply shift them north. Maybe, possibly. It would have to shift significantly further north for that to happen, in my opinion.



The CMC sees this thing brushing south SW Florida, which I think is reasonable. I don't think we're going to see such a dramatic relocation north that the Miami area is in play, but I really do not know.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Ivanhater]

You won't see any SW motion. The ridge looks to be oriented SE to NW..not straight west to east.