ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[brunota2003]

So that is a surface report of 55 mph winds from a buoy? Hmm...

[NEXRAD]

Where'd that 55 mph come from?

BUOYA8CC4 east quad...very close to center..

lat: 22.70
lon: -74.60

From the NDBC's data I think it's a ship report.

- Jay
South Florida

[Bocadude85]

Where'd that 55 mph come from?

BUOYA8CC4 east quad...very close to center..

Aric what do you think about the weakening of the convection?

[ConvergenceZone]

I'm confused, some are saying that the convection is strengthening
some is say it's weakening. Some are saying the ULL is moving away,
some are saying that they are moving together....

[brunota2003]

Where'd that 55 mph come from?

BUOYA8CC4 east quad...very close to center..

lat: 22.70
lon: -74.60

From the NDBC's data I think it's a ship report.

- Jay
South Florida

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?storm=at3

Yep...ship report of 48.0 knot winds. The ship is 44 miles from the center's location.

[jasons2k]

I thought it was a ship. If so, it could be contaminated for any number of reasons.

[Aric Dunn]

I thought it was a ship. If so, it could be contaminated for any number of reasons.

yeah my bad its a ship... the NHC can find out if need be they have the ability to contact them

[SunnyThoughts]

Do you guys think they will put out a special statement naming the storm..or wait until the next update...or wait for more convection before upgrading?

[Vortmax1]

RECON VDM reports 45 knot surface winds.

[Ivanhater]

I am becoming increasingly concerned this is going to hit South Florida instead of the Straits.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

[supercane]

New fix
A. Time of Center Fix: 22nd day of the month at 21:18:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 22°47'N 75°19'W (22.7833N 75.3167W)

Old fix
A. Time of Center Fix: 22nd day of the month at 19:20:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 22°25'N 75°07'W (22.4167N 75.1167W) (View map)

[Ivanhater]

Just about to post that map, still moving NW

[redfish1]

I am becoming increasingly concerned this is going to hit South Florida instead of the Straits.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

if it does it will be a ts at the most

[SunnyThoughts]

Ivan, I think you are right about it coming close to south Fla, or hitting it even. Been watching the last 3 or 4 hours...just seems it will brush the tip of Fla or come very very close imo.

[Ivanhater]

I am becoming increasingly concerned this is going to hit South Florida instead of the Straits.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

if it does it will be a ts at the most

Your point?

[Blown Away]

I am becoming increasingly concerned this is going to hit South Florida instead of the Straits.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

Sure does look like TD3 is moving much faster than the predicted. I'm thinking it will pass the 06z predicted point to the NE in 3-4 hours at this pace.

[southerngale]

I am becoming increasingly concerned this is going to hit South Florida instead of the Straits.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

if it does it will be a ts at the most

I believe that's what it is forecast to be. Why the eye rolling?

[Javlin]

I'm confused, some are saying that the convection is strengthening
some is say it's weakening. Some are saying the ULL is moving away,
some are saying that they are moving together....

It looks like it is starting to pop and going NW for what maybe 6-10 more hrs
because of the ULL looks to going more W for now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html

[redfish1]

I am becoming increasingly concerned this is going to hit South Florida instead of the Straits.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

if it does it will be a ts at the most

Your point?

i understand what your saying but with the speed it is moving and direction all south florida will get is some squally weather...not to much to be concerned about

[brunota2003]

Okay, so according to cycloneye, this flight is a 90% reduction for flight level winds

So...43*0.9 = 38.7 knots at the surface. 38.7*1.151 = 44.5437 mph, or 45 mph tropical storm (note, this is just going off of flight level data, whether or not they will consider the 45 knot SMFR reading? Dunno...they could say they think shoaling from the islands interfered with the readings, causing them to be high, and I think it might be wrong, no flight level winds support 45 knots on the surface).