ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[HURAKAN]

Nice loop

[wxman57]

I see an OFCI 00Z track in the models. That's a preliminary NHC track they just put in. Takes it across the northern Keys just grazing the tip of the peninsula. Landfall near Grand Isle, LA, about a 35 mile shift east along the LA coast. Now this doesn't mean the NHC will follow this track at 03Z, but it's a hint.

On another note, Bonnie looks rather poorly at present. Careful monitoring thunderstorm movement to gauge where the center is going, as the two may not be closely related tonight.

[jlauderdal]

I live In Kendall.. which is about 20 miles or so north of Homestead.. so if it comes in around Middle/Upper Keys or Homestead.. I stand to get most of the rain and wind.. am I worried? Nope. Just like a typical rainstorm (though last thurs night around 11pm it felt like the world was erupting with a rain storm that lasted about 15 min!)

it only takes one squall from a TS to take out power and down trees, stay safe in Kendall

[lester]

http://i32.tinypic.com/11ipdt2.gif

Nice loop

whoa nice burst!

...edited by wxman57 to remove the IMG tags. Come on, folks, no double-posting of images. It's easy to remove the "IMG" tags around a photo in the coding before quoting. We don't need to load the sat pics/animations over and over down the thread.

[blp]

I want thank the moderator for bringing up this issue with the back and forth posts. I had to sift through lots of pages of nothing to get useful information. This forum is not chat room and it provides useful information to those that may be affected.

[Stormcenter]

Yeah this always seems to be the case.
I guess they like the anticipation aspect of it.

LOL, it seems like everyone in this thread wants Bonnie to hit their area.

[Frank P]

I see an OFCI 00Z track in the models. That's a preliminary NHC track they just put in. Takes it across the northern Keys just grazing the tip of the peninsula. Landfall near Grand Isle, LA, about a 35 mile shift east along the LA coast. Now this doesn't mean the NHC will follow this track at 03Z, but it's a hint.

On another note, Bonnie looks rather poorly at present. Careful monitoring thunderstorm movement to gauge where the center is going, as the two may not be closely related tonight.

If that track comes to fruition and it comes in as a strong TS (as SHIPs is indicating) it would not be good for SE LA, MS, AL and NW FL regarding the oil situation.. 60-70 mph winds is really no big deal, but the oil situation really exacerbates the mess and could push a ton of oil on the coast.. we got significant oil on the beaches in Biloxi due to the strong winds associated with the pressure gradients from Alex...

[ConvergenceZone]

wxman57, i agree. I thought it looked okay earlier today, like it was gettig its act together, but over the last few hours, it has looked very sheared and undecided what it wants to do... Then again, I guess it's doing exactly as it suppose to do for a system that only expected to intensify a little.

[stayawaynow]

I live In Kendall.. which is about 20 miles or so north of Homestead.. so if it comes in around Middle/Upper Keys or Homestead.. I stand to get most of the rain and wind.. am I worried? Nope. Just like a typical rainstorm (though last thurs night around 11pm it felt like the world was erupting with a rain storm that lasted about 15 min!)

it only takes one squall from a TS to take out power and down trees, stay safe in Kendall

Don't forget the threat of tornadoes. Remember during Fay we had a tornado in Wellington....and that was a tropical storm.

[nashrobertsx]

ageed.. uncessary chatter takes away from real info, data, charts etc... esepcially all this "i hope it doesn't come here, we have had too much rain lately..." like who wants it to come anywhere.... just my two cents...

[vbhoutex]

Not even going to be nice about it folks. Enough of the Texas/Florida tug of war!!! Confine your discussions to TS Bonnie or suspensions will be issued. There is to be no more FL vs TX or TX vs LA, etc. type of posting unless it is part of a discussion backed up by models or some science. Yes, it is ok to ask where someone thinks it may go, but no more of the wishcast talk or accusations please.

[SouthFloridawx]

Anyone else notice that Bonnie is looking kind of elongated, in a NW to SE orientation? Looks like another Upper Level Trough to the Northest of the system, in addition to the Upper Level Low.. Putting the squeeze on her...

WV Loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-wv.html

[Air Force Met]

Also looking at the satellite and upper winds...I think I see the major problem. It's really not the shear any more. Don't get me wrong...there is some shear...but that isn't its major problem with convection.

I think the major problem is there is massive convergence going on in the upper levels. Convergence aloft equals downward vertical motion. Any surface convergence is counteracted by that.

When I have been stationed in the tropics (data sparse areas...especially back 20 years ago)...the only forecast tools I needed was a 200 mb and a 925/sfc. I would streamline them and find my divergence/convergence. If I had massive divergence aloft and convergence at the sfc...I would go for numerous thunderstorms. If that was reversed...I would go partly cloudy. If I had convergence aloft and at the sfc...I would go sctd thunderstorms.

Bonnie has some convergence at the sfc and a lot of convergence aloft. Not a good indicator for a flare up of convection.

[ROCK]

see how she is flattening out on the NE side....it has begun...

[Stephanie]

It's alright to discuss a direction that you think it's moving in, it doesn't necessarily make it -removed- or wanting a storm to hit your area. However, just stating a system is going in a certain direction, when clearly the discussion and official forecast is stating otherwise is -removed-.

[Sambucol]

see how she is flattening out on the NW side....it has begun...

What does that mean? What has begun?

[Frank P]

see how she is flattening out on the NW side....it has begun...

What, the west movement or the beginning of the end of the storm? Do tell

[StormClouds63]

Is it too late to rule out the possibility that the system dissipates or becomes just an
open wave? I thought it might be consolidating, but it appears in a much weaker state than 3-4 hours ago.

If the models are right and the system manages to stay at TS strength, landfall near Barataria Bay (near Grand Isle) or Terrebone Bay (near Houma) would not be good for our Louisiana wetlands and intrusion of oil further inland.

[tolakram]

see how she is flattening out on the NW side....it has begun...

What does that mean? What has begun?

Typically when you see the flattening it means the storm is bumping up against a ridge and will begin to change directions, in this case the NHC is expecting a more westward motion.

[sphelps8681]

Also looking at the satellite and upper winds...I think I see the mjor problem. It's really not the shear any more. Don't get me wrong...there is some shear...but that isn't its major problem with convection.

I think the major problem is there is massive convergence going on in the upper levels. Convergence aloft equals downward vertical motion. Any surface convergence is counteracted by that.

When I have been stationed in the tropics (data sparse areas...especially back 20 years ago)...the only forecast tools I needed was a 200 mb and a 925/sfc. I would streamline them and find my divergence/convergence. If I had massive divergence aloft and convergence at the sfc...I would go for numerous thunderstorms. If that was reversed...I would go partly cloudy. If I had convergence aloft and at the sfc...I would go sctd thunderstorms.

Bonnie has some convergence at the sfc and a lot of convergence aloft. Not a good indicator for a flare up of convection.

I read in one of your post that you thought the ridge would be to strong and (correct me If I am wrong) but there would be a weakness but the ridge would build back in. Is that still the case? And will the track move more to the left when that happens back to the original NHC track Tx/LA.