ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[jlauderdal]

Yeah this always seems to be the case.
I guess they like the anticipation aspect of it.

LOL, it seems like everyone in this thread wants Bonnie to hit their area.

forget the anticipation, they want to miss school or work,

[wxman57]

Is it too late to rule out the possibility that the system dissipates or becomes just an
open wave? I thought it might be consolidating, but it appears in a much weaker state than 3-4 hours ago.

If the models are right and the system manages to stay at TS strength, landfall near Barataria Bay (near Grand Isle) or Terrebone Bay (near Houma) would not be good for our Louisiana wetlands and intrusion of oil further inland.

It's quite possible it could lose its LLC tonight. It does appear to be struggling now.

[Florida1118]

I heard from TWC the Tornado Threat was low. The NHC doesn't say anything about it. is there anyone who knows the tornado threat for tomorrow?

[chzzdekr81]

Rock, what do you mean "it has begun"?

[wxman57]

I heard from TWC the Tornado Threat was low. The NHC doesn't say anything about it. is there anyone who knows the tornado threat for tomorrow?

Weaker systems tend to not produce many tornadoes.

[hurricanefloyd5]

I heard from TWC the Tornado Threat was low. The NHC doesn't say anything about it. is there anyone who knows the tornado threat for tomorrow?

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/ghwo/?type=tornado

[johngaltfla]

LOL, it seems like everyone in this thread wants Bonnie to hit their area.

No forecasting here ..just -removed-

It's good to see the local mets on. And just think; it's only July. I can't (actually I can pass entirely) on what August-September-October look like.

Gang, unless you're in South Florida and the Keys I would not get too excited. The interesting part will occur when it enters into the GOM, how strong and well constructed the LLC is, and where the ridge steers it the first 24 hours. Right now the pro mets seem to have a pretty good handle on this the next 36 hours. So with that good night and I'm going to hope this is year 4 of NO MORE PLYWOOD.

[lester]

I live In Kendall.. which is about 20 miles or so north of Homestead.. so if it comes in around Middle/Upper Keys or Homestead.. I stand to get most of the rain and wind.. am I worried? Nope. Just like a typical rainstorm (though last thurs night around 11pm it felt like the world was erupting with a rain storm that lasted about 15 min!)

it only takes one squall from a TS to take out power and down trees, stay safe in Kendall

Don't forget the threat of tornadoes. Remember during Fay we had a tornado in Wellington....and that was a tropical storm.

This'll probably change at the next forecast update since this has strengthened to a TS but from the SPC site:

...S FL DURING THE DAY...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE COULD ATTAIN WEAK TROPICAL STORM STATUS
BEFORE CROSSING THE FL STRAITS TOMORROW /SEE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES
FOR DETAILS/. SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE LOW-MIDLEVEL SHEAR IS
EXPECTED OVER S FL TO THE E/NE OF THE CYCLONE CENTER...AND A COUPLE
OF SUPERCELLS/BRIEF TORNADOES MAY OCCUR. WILL MAINTAIN ONLY LOW
SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR THIS AREA BASED ON THE MARGINAL INTENSITY
OF THE CYCLONE AND TYPICAL UNCERTAINTIES IN STORM EVOLUTION.

[tgenius]

I heard from TWC the Tornado Threat was low. The NHC doesn't say anything about it. is there anyone who knows the tornado threat for tomorrow?

Weaker systems tend to not produce many tornadoes.

wxman57, what's your interpretation of that thunderstorm activity getting stronger on the IR? Can those storms sustain themselves even if the COC is gone?

[Bocadude85]

Im not sure this has a LLC anymore... I cant seem to locate one

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

[crimi481]

Bonnie being absorbed by upper low -moving in tandem. "HYBRED" now. Interesting to see what this mess does in North/central Gulf

[img][url]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/wv-l.jpg

[Frank P]

Im not sure this has a LLC anymore... I cant seem to locate one

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

Also appears to be bending towards the wnw somewhat looking at that IR presentation.. hard to really see the low level clouds but would not surprise me at all if it did lose its LLC

[Patrick99]

Im not sure this has a LLC anymore... I cant seem to locate one

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

I think the LLC is to the south and west of the big blob of convection - but you really don't know since we've lost visible.

[TwisterFanatic]

Im not sure this has a LLC anymore... I cant seem to locate one

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

I think the LLC is to the south and west of the big blob of convection - but you really don't know since we've lost visible.

You beat me to it.

[ozonepete]

Im not sure this has a LLC anymore... I cant seem to locate one

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

I think the LLC is to the south and west of the big blob of convection - but you really don't know since we've lost visible.

thank you for saying that! I'm surprised at everybody saying the LLC is decoupled, it's a mess, etc. You can't see anything without visible or RGB. Once again, really sorry I don't have much time to find and post the images, but the only thing we have right now is scatterometer satellite analysis. You can tell almost nothing about the LLC right now, and I would be careful dismissing a system with a strong core of thunderstorms bursting over or so close to the LLC, whereever it is.

[Steve H.]

Could be she's accelerating and may get stretched apart. Entertainment for now. But unfortunately, I believe there will be lots more activity to come in August through October.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

IMHO I think it still has an llc, although weak. Have it near 23.3n 76.5w give or take, pretty much an extrop. from the last few vis. frames. Also as ROCK alluded to think Bonnie is about to began the wnw turn. It is really starting to flatten out on the n and ne sides.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rb.html

[rockyman]

I was on the board this morning, right before sunrise, and the mood was very somber...lots of "it's dead" posts...then the sun came up, shined a light on the circulation, and, "suddenly", it came back to life. There's no doubt that this is a shallow system right now, so the IR loop is simply not going to show the circulation, especially if it's covered with convection.

[rockyman]

this is a good loop that starts out as a "visible", then ends up as an "IR"...it makes it easier to guess where the LLC might be as this moment:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rgb.html

[ROCK]

Is it too late to rule out the possibility that the system dissipates or becomes just an
open wave? I thought it might be consolidating, but it appears in a much weaker state than 3-4 hours ago.

If the models are right and the system manages to stay at TS strength, landfall near Barataria Bay (near Grand Isle) or Terrebone Bay (near Houma) would not be good for our Louisiana wetlands and intrusion of oil further inland.

It's quite possible it could lose its LLC tonight. It does appear to be struggling now.

yep...NE side starting to flatten out...any mid level shear with that and it decapitation ala Chris 06...