Bonnie: Tornado, T-Storm & Flood Warnings

[Dave]

Bringing this thread up for the inevitable tornado, thunderstorm & flood warnings for Bonnie. Let's keep this one clear of all other USA severe weather warnings and use it for areas (in and near the path) of Bonnie only. Thanks and everyone in or near including the islands, stay safe!

[Vortmax1]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 AM CDT FRI JUL 23 2010


...S FL THIS AFTN/EVE...
LOW LVL SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE OVER THE SRN THIRD
OF FL TODAY AS T.S. BONNIE CONTINUES WNWWD. COUPLED WITH DIURNAL
HEATING...THIS MAY YIELD A HEIGHTENED RISK FOR LOW LVL STORM
ROTATION/ISOLD TORNADOES LATER TODAY THROUGH THIS EVE AS CONVERGENT
ERN SIDE OF BONNIE'S CIRCULATION OVERSPREADS THE REGION.

[Vortmax1]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1118 AM CDT FRI JUL 23 2010


... S FL...
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH T.S. BONNIE HAS MOVED ONSHORE JUST N OF HST
AT 16Z. BANDS OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE NWD TO MLB
FOR NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH 30-40 KT OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE
A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES.

[Vortmax1]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1431
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0218 PM CDT FRI JUL 23 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...AL/FL PANHANDLE COAST...EXTREME SRN/SERN AL AND
SWRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 231918Z - 232015Z

A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
REGION. A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

VERY STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING HAS RESULTED IN SFC TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 90S. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBS
REVEAL A CONFLUENCE ZONE EXTENDING FROM NEAR 15 SW PNS TO 10 ESE DHN
TO 20 SSE CSG...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG THIS LINE.
ENHANCED DEEP-LAYER ELY FLOW ALONG THE NRN PERIPHERY OF A CLOSED
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION PROGRESSING WWD ACROSS THE GULF WILL EXIST
ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE...YIELDING EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 30 KTS. 18Z TLH SOUNDING INDICATES STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES IN RESPONSE TO BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING...AND GIVEN SFC T-TD
SPREADS OF 20-30 DEG F ACROSS THE REGION...THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT-TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN INCONSISTENT WITH
THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT THERE IS SOME SIGNAL INDICATING THAT THUNDERSTORMS MAY
ATTEMPT TO ORGANIZE INTO A BROKEN LINE ACROSS THE ERN FL PANHANDLE
INTO SRN AL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ALREADY IN PLACE...THIS SCENARIO IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...AND IF THIS WERE TO MATERIALIZE...A MORE WIDESPREAD
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS MAY EXIST LATER THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...WITH THE EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HRS...A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

..ROGERS.. 07/23/2010