Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

Rain continues to spread on Guadeloupe and most of the EC Leewards islands included some of the Windwards.

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 221954
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
354 PM AST THU JUL 22 2010

.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF
THE AREA THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...A MOIST SOUTH SOUTHEAST
FLOW WILL MAINTAIN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
AN UPPER LOW EAST OF THE LEEWARDS WILL MOVE INTO CARIBBEAN OVER
THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY

&&

.DISCUSSION...AFTER A QUIET MORNING...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
PUERTO RICO. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED NORTH AND
AFFECTED THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

ALTHOUGH A RELATIVE DRIER TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TONIGHT...MID
TO UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVE
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECTING THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A MORE
STABLE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VCSH TO SHRA OR TSRA CONTINUES TO IMPACT ALL TAF SITES
EXCEPT TKPK AND TNCM. ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...EXPECT BRIEF MVFR
CONDS FOR TIST...TISX...AND TJSJ. VCTS FOR TJPS...TJBQ AND TJMZ
THROUGH 23/00Z. GUSTY WINDS NOT AS MUCH A FACTOR DURING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT BUT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...GENERATING
CHOPPY CONDITIONS MAINLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND THE MONA
PASSAGE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 86 78 88 / 30 20 60 60
STT 78 87 79 88 / 30 20 50 60

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
649 PM AST THU JUL 22 2010

VIC020-030-230145-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0303.100722T2249Z-100723T0145Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAINT JOHN VI-SAINT THOMAS VI-
649 PM AST THU JUL 22 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS...

IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
SAINT JOHN AND SAINT THOMAS

* UNTIL 945 PM AST

* AT 643 PM AST DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN EMBEDDED IN AREAS OF DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF...ON ALREADY SATURATED SOILS...WILL CAUSE FLOODING
OF SMALL CREEKS AND GUTS...AND LOW SPOTS IN HIGHWAYS.
ADDITIONALLY...ROADS AND LAND ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS
AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING. ALSO...THE HEAVY
RAINS COULD ALSO TRIGGER ROCK AND MUDSLIDES IN STEEP TERRAIN.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1828 6470 1829 6510 1839 6509 1841 6470
1839 6464 1829 6465

$$

CASTRO

[cycloneye]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
PRC007-009-015-019-021-025-029-031-033-035-041-043-045-047-051-057-
061-063-075-077-085-087-095-101-105-107-109-119-123-127-129-133-135-
137-139-143-149-151-230015-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
702 PM AST THU JUL 22 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 815 PM AST FOR PEOPLE IN THE FOLLOWING
MUNICIPALITIES
IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...CAGUAS...CIDRA...COAMO...CAYEY...COROZAL...COMERIO...
AIBONITO...AGUAS BUENAS...BARRANQUITAS...JUNCOS...GURABO...
OROCOVIS...NARANJITO...MOROVIS...TOA ALTA...SAN LORENZO...
VILLALBA...TRUJILLO ALTO...VEGA ALTA...LAS PIEDRAS...DORADO...
ARROYO...PATILLAS...MAUNABO...GUAYNABO...CANOVANAS...GUAYAMA...
CAROLINA...JUANA DIAZ...CATANO...SAN JUAN...SALINAS...SANTA
ISABEL...LOIZA...RIO GRANDE...YABUCOA AND TOA BAJA

INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
AGUAS BUENAS...AIBONITO...ARROYO...BAIROA...BARRANQUITAS...
BAYAMON...BUENA VISTA...CAGUAS...CAMPANILLA...CAMPO RICO...
CANDELARIA...CANDELARIA ARENAS...CANOVANAS...CAROLINA...
CATANO...CAYEY...GURABO...CELADA...CIDRA...COAMO...COCO...
COMERIO...COQUI...CORAZON...COROZAL...DORADO...GALATEO...
GUAYAMA...GUAYNABO...H. RIVERA COLON...INGENIO...JAUCA...
JOBOS...JUNCOS...LA DOLORES...LAS PIEDRAS...LA FERMINA...
SALINAS...LAS OLLAS...LEVITTOWN...LOIZA...LOS LLANOS...
MARTORELL...NARANJITO...OLIMPO...PAJAROS...PALMAS...PATILLAS...
PLAYITA...RIO GRANDE...TOA ALTA...SAN JOSE...RIO LAJAS...SABANA
SECA...SAN ANTONIO...SAN ISIDRO...SAN JUAN...SAN LORENZO...SANTA
BARBARA...SUAREZ...TOA BAJA...TRUJILLO ALTO...VAZQUEZ...VEGA
ALTA...VIEQUES AND YABUCOA

AT 654 PM AST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHED FROM SALINAS TO CAROLINA
THAT WAS AT LEAST 20 MILES WIDE IN PLACES AND MOVING NORTHWEST AT
ABOUT 20 MPH. THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE 30 TO 45 MPH GUSTS IN THEM.
AREAS NEAR CAYEY AND GURABO COULD LIKELY SEE 40 TO 45 MPH GUSTS
WHILE THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA WILL SEE 30 TO 40 MPH IN PLACES. HEAVY
RAINS ARE ALSO CONTINUING ON THE SOUTH COAST NORTH TO CAYEY AND
CAGUAS. THESE RAINS WILL CONTINUE BEYOND 7:30 PM IN CAYEY BUT WILL
BE OF SHORTER DURATION WHEN THEY ARRIVE IN SAN JUAN AND CAROLINA.
RESIDENTS SHOULD ALSO EXPECT MORE LIGHTNING WITH THESE SHOWERS THAN
HAD PREVIOUSLY. RAINS WILL ARRIVE IN BARRANQUITAS BY 7 PM AND IN
DORADO BEFORE 8 PM AST.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
758 PM AST THU JUL 22 2010

PRC003-005-011-071-083-097-099-117-131-230007-
/O.EXP.TJSJ.FA.Y.0301.000000T0000Z-100723T0000Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ISABELA PR-MOCA PR-SAN SEBASTIAN PR-AGUADILLA PR-AGUADA PR-
LAS MARIAS PR-MAYAGUEZ PR-RINCON PR-ANASCO PR-
758 PM AST THU JUL 22 2010

...THE FLOOD ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 800 PM AST FOR ANASCO...
RINCON...MAYAGUEZ...LAS MARIAS...AGUADA...AGUADILLA...SAN
SEBASTIAN...MOCA AND ISABELA MUNICIPALITIES...

DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT RAIN WHICH AFFECTED THIS AREA HAD
DECREASED IN INTENSITY. NO SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THEREFORE THE
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

RESIDENTS AND MOTORISTS ACROSS THESE AREAS SHOULD HOWEVER BE ALERT TO
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND ALLOW TIME FOR STREAMS...CREEKS AND
RIVERS TO RETURN TO NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

LAT...LON 1823 6720 1826 6727 1840 6727 1844 6721
1856 6714 1857 6701 1852 6695 1820 6696
1818 6719

$$

CASTRO

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
939 PM AST THU JUL 22 2010

VIC020-030-230445-
/O.EXT.TJSJ.FA.Y.0303.000000T0000Z-100723T0445Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAINT JOHN VI-SAINT THOMAS VI-
939 PM AST THU JUL 22 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS EXTENDED THE

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS...

IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
SAINT JOHN AND SAINT THOMAS

* UNTIL 1245 AM AST

AT 938 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN
MOVING ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF...ON ALREADY SATURATED SOILS...WILL CAUSE FLOODING
OF SMALL CREEKS AND GUTS...AND LOW SPOTS IN HIGHWAYS.
ADDITIONALLY...ROADS AND LAND ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS
AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING. ALSO...THE HEAVY
RAINS COULD ALSO TRIGGER ROCK AND MUDSLIDES IN STEEP TERRAIN.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1828 6470 1829 6510 1839 6509 1841 6470
1839 6464 1829 6465

$$

CASTRO

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
955 PM AST THU JUL 22 2010

.UPDATE...AT THE MOMENT THE RAIN BAND FROM WHAT IS NOW TROPICAL
STORM BONNIE IS MOVING OVER EAST CENTRAL PUERTO RICO FROM MANY
MILES SOUTH INTO THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE 23/0050-0056Z FRAMES THE
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED FIFTY PLUS KNOTS INBOUND AT ABOUT 4800 FEET
48 MILES SOUTH OF THE COAST OF PATILLAS IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE
OUTFLOW FROM A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX. SINCE THEN IT HAS WEAKENED
BUT COULD STILL PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS OVER SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO.
THE NEXT PULSE OF RAIN MAY ALSO BE ENOUGH TO PUT SEVERAL RIVERS IN
FLOOD INCLUDING THE PATILLAS...RIO DE LA PLATA IN AIBONITO...RIO
CAYAGUAS AND THE RIO GRANDE DE LOIZA IN CAGUAS. AS A PRECAUTION
SEVERAL GATES ON THE CARRAIZO DAM HAVE ALSO BEEN OPENED AND WILL
RELEASE ABOUT 12 CUBIC KFT OF WATER IN RIO GRAND DE LOIZA
DOWNSTREAM. FOR THIS REASON THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS UPDATED TO
REFLECT A CHANGE IN THE FOCUS OF THE WATCH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT RAIN WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN NOW...THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION
UPSTREAM FROM PUERTO RICO IN FLOW THAT HAS TURNED NEARLY
SOUTHERLY. THE RADAR ALSO SHOWS CONSIDERABLE BACKING WITH HEIGHT
IN THE WINDS WHICH HAVE CONTINUED TO SPIN UP VORTICES. MODELS
INDICATE THAT SOME OF THIS RAIN WILL STILL BE WITH US...AND LIKELY
OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO AFTER 6 AM...AND HAVE KEPT GOOD POPS IN
THE AREA THROUGH NOON FRIDAY. THE ECMWF FORECAST FOR 850 MB RH HAS
HARDLY CHANGED FROM THE HIGH VALUES IT WAS FORECASTING OVER
EASTERN PUERTO RICO FOR FRIDAY AT 12Z FROM YESTERDAY. MIMIC
PRODUCT SHOWS THE EDGE OF MUCH DRIER AIR AROUND 61 OR 62 DEGREES
WEST LONGITUDE AND THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS BY 23/12Z AND PUERTO RICO BY 23/16Z. BUT THAT MAY NOT BE
IN TIME TO PREVENT SOME FAIRLY ACTIVE CONVECTION OVER NORTHWEST
PUERTO RICO LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE HAVE RE-
INSTATED 50 PERCENT POPS THERE. OTHERWISE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE
LONG TERM GRIDS. WILL STAY WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF
MAINLAND PUERTO RICO IN CASE BAND BEGINS TO FOLLOW THE MOTION OF
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WHICH IT MOVING NORTHWEST AT 14 MPH.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS TIST...TIST AND
TJPS THROUGH AT LEAST 23/08Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE AT LEAST THROUGH 23/12Z. HOWEVER...LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TJSJ OVERNIGHT. LATEST 00Z TJSJ SOUNDING
INDICATED SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS FROM THE SURFACE UP TO
15K FEET...BECOMING EASTERLY THROUGH 25K FEET. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 23/12Z.

[cycloneye]

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
PRC045-105-135-230615-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.W.0074.100723T0312Z-100723T0615Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1112 PM AST THU JUL 22 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES

IN PUERTO RICO
COMERIO
NARANJITO
TOA ALTA

* UNTIL 215 AM AST

* AT 1104 PM AST...RUNOFF FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL HAS RESULTED
IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON RIO DE LA PLATA AT COMERIO. THE CURRENT
RIVER STAGE IS 11.27 FEET AND RAISING. MOTORISTS DRIVING ALONG THE
RIO DE LA PLATA IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD EXERCISE EXTREME
CAUTION. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY AND NEVER TRY TO CROSS A
FLOODED ROADWAY.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

&&

LAT...LON 1836 6620 1822 6619 1822 6625 1836 6626

$$

MARTINEZ/ROSA

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Dry air comming in at least for today. Read the climate data below and see how way above mormal PR is in terms of rainfall in 2010 and in July.

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 230827
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
427 AM AST FRI JUL 23 2010

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW N OF PR WILL RETROGRESS TO THE BAHAMAS BY
SAT WHILE SECOND TUTT LOW EAST OF 60W WILL SHEAR THROUGH SUN.
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 53W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SAT. MID-UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRES WILL BUILD FOR SUN-MON WITH A TUTT AXIS FCST TO
STRETCH ACROSS THE ISLANDS TUE-THU.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ALL GUIDANCE SHOW A MUCH DRIER AND STABLE AIR MASS
OVERSPREADING THE REGION OVR THE NEXT 36 HRS. LEADING EDGE OF THIS
DRIER MASS ALREADY WORKING INTO LEEWARD ISLANDS AS SEEN ON BLENDED
TPW IMAGERY. INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
53W WILL GREATLY LIMIT TSTM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND THUS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. FOR THIS
REASON...FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS CANCELLED.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 53W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SAT WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE ALTHOUGH NOT AS MOIST/HUMID AS HAS BEEN OVR
THE LAST FEW DAYS. TUTT LOW TO THE NORTH WILL MOVE WEST AND ALLOW
FOR MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. FCST HELICITY VALUES PRETTY DECENT
SO WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION AND
SQUALLY WEATHER.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE PICTURE SUN WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING
AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FOR SUN-MON. THIS TO KEEP
CONVECTION ISOLATED AT BEST NEXT WEEK.

ASIDE FROM TS BONNIE NEAR THE BAHAMAS...TROP ATLC VERY QUIET AND
MJO PROGNOSIS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A STRONG DOWNWARD PHASE ACROSS
THE WRN HEMISPHERE OVR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS POSSIBLY LASTING
THROUGH THE THIRD WEEK OF AUGUST AS MJO SIGNAL CONTINUES TO
PROPAGATE INTO THE MARITIME CONTINENT/WRN PACIFIC.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES WITH
VCSH TO SHRA POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TIST...TISX...TJPS AND TJSJ
THROUGH 23/18Z. AFT 23/18Z...BRIEF MVFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS TJBQ AND TJMZ IN SHRA OR TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS RUNNING BETWEEN 1.5-2.0 METERS (5-6FT) AT REGIONAL
BUOYS. WINDS MAINLY EASTERLY AT 15 KT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
AND SEAS 5 FT MAXIMUM. OVERALL...PRETTY GOOD WEEKEND EXPECTED
WITH 3-5 FT SEAS AND SMALL CHANCES FOR CONVECTION XCPT FOR SAT
WHEN STRONG CONVECTION POSSIBLE DUE TO PASSAGE OF TROPICAL WAVE.
ONE POSSIBLE BAD DAY OUT OF A FOUR DAY WEEKEND NOT BAD AT ALL
CONSIDERING WHAT WE HAVE GONE THROUGH LATELY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...LA PLATA RIVER AT TOA ALTA CONTINUES TO RISE THIS
MORNING WITH LATEST READING AT 12.13 FEET AND RISING RAPIDLY AND
FLOOD STAGE IS 16 FEET. SITE SPECIFIC AND SERFC GUIDANCE INDICATE
A CREST OF AROUND 14 FT LATER THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ISSUING ANY WARNINGS. ALL OTHER
RIVERS ARE SHOWING FALLING STAGES AT THIS TIME.


&&

.CLIMATE...AT THE SJU LMM INTL ARPT...A TOTAL OF 7.88 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE
BEEN RECORDED SO FAR THIS MONTH. THIS REPRESENTS THE SECOND WETTEST
START TO JULY ON RECORD ONLY BEHIND 1961 WHEN 7.95 INCHES HAD BEEN
RECORDED TO DATE. THE WETTEST JULY ON RECORD WAS ALSO 1961 WHEN 9.35
INCHES WERE RECORDED. 2010 STILL ON TRACK TO BE WETTEST YEAR ON
RECORD AT THE SJU LMM INTL ARPT. THROUGH JULY 22TH...A TOTAL OF
48.32 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE BEEN RECORDED. THIS IS 4.79 INCHES MORE
THAN THE NEXT CLOSEST YEAR SINCE 1958.

AT THE CYRIL E. KING ARPT IN ST. THOMAS...A TOTAL OF 7.32 INCHES
HAVE BEEN RECORDED SO FAR THIS MONTH. THIS REPRESENTS THE WETTEST
START TO JULY ON RECORD. THE WETTEST JULY ON RECORD IS 1958 WHEN
7.41 INCHES WERE RECORDED. WITH ONLY 0.10 INCHES NEEDED TO BREAK THE
RECORD AND NINE DAYS STILL LEFT ON THE CALENDAR MONTH IT IS LIKELY
THAT JULY 2010 WILL END UP AS THE WETTEST JULY ON RECORD. LIKE IN
SAN JUAN...2010 REMAINS ON TRACK TO BE ONE OF THE WETTEST YEARS ON
RECORD. SINCE JAN 1 2010...A TOTAL OF 29.96 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE BEEN
RECORDED AT ST. THOMAS. THIS TOTAL REPRESENTS THE SECOND WETTEST
START TO A YEAR ON RECORD ONLY BEHIND 1960 WHEN 32.85 HAD BEEN
RECORDED TO DATE.

AT THE CHRISTIANSTED ARPT IN ST. CROIX THINGS HAVE NOT BEEN NEARLY
AS WET AS IN SAN JUAN OR ST. THOMAS. THROUGH JULY 22TH...A TOTAL OF
3.91 INCHES HAVE BEEN RECORDED. THIS REPRESENTS THE NINTH WETTEST
START TO JULY ON RECORD. THE WETTEST JULY ON RECORD IS 1958 WHEN
6.34 INCHES WERE RECORDED. 2010 RANKS AS THE EIGHT WETTEST START TO
A YEAR ON RECORD WITH A TOTAL OF 21.82 INCHES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 89 78 / 50 20 60 40
STT 88 79 89 79 / 40 20 70 20

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1220 PM AST FRI JUL 23 2010

PRC015-025-029-031-037-053-063-069-077-085-087-089-095-103-109-119-
129-139-147-151-232015-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0305.100723T1620Z-100723T2015Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CAGUAS PR-JUNCOS PR-GURABO PR-SAN LORENZO PR-TRUJILLO ALTO PR-
LAS PIEDRAS PR-ARROYO PR-LUQUILLO PR-PATILLAS PR-MAUNABO PR-
NAGUABO PR-CEIBA PR-CANOVANAS PR-FAJARDO PR-CAROLINA PR-HUMACAO PR-
LOIZA PR-RIO GRANDE PR-YABUCOA PR-VIEQUES PR-
1220 PM AST FRI JUL 23 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CAGUAS...JUNCOS...GURABO...SAN LORENZO...TRUJILLO ALTO...LAS
PIEDRAS...ARROYO...LUQUILLO...PATILLAS...MAUNABO...NAGUABO...
CEIBA...CANOVANAS...FAJARDO...CAROLINA...HUMACAO...LOIZA...RIO
GRANDE...YABUCOA AND VIEQUES

* UNTIL 415 PM AST

* AT 1211 PM AST DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH EMBEDDED AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MOVING
INTO THE ADVISORY AREA.

DUE TO ALREADY SATURATED SOILS...THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS...FLOODING IN LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...AS WELL AS INCREASE THE POSSIBILITY
OF MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

[cycloneye]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
PRC007-021-025-029-031-033-037-053-061-063-077-085-087-089-103-119-
127-137-139-231800-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1243 PM AST FRI JUL 23 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 200 PM AST FOR PEOPLE IN THE FOLLOWING
MUNICIPALITIES
IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...CAGUAS...AGUAS BUENAS...JUNCOS...GURABO...TRUJILLO
ALTO...LAS PIEDRAS...LUQUILLO...NAGUABO...GUAYNABO...CEIBA...
CANOVANAS...FAJARDO...CAROLINA...CATANO...SAN JUAN...LOIZA...RIO
GRANDE AND TOA BAJA

AT 1235 PM AST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER EAST AND NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO...ACROSS
THE MUNICIPALITIES BEFORE MENTIONED. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WERE
MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT AROUND 15 MPH. THIS AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS AS
THEY MAY BE WASHED OUT. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY
ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD
WATERS.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS REPORTED WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

[Gustywind]

Good morning. Dry air comming in at least for today. Read the climate data below and see how way above mormal PR is in terms of rainfall in 2010 and in July.

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 230827
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
427 AM AST FRI JUL 23 2010

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW N OF PR WILL RETROGRESS TO THE BAHAMAS BY
SAT WHILE SECOND TUTT LOW EAST OF 60W WILL SHEAR THROUGH SUN.
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 53W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SAT. MID-UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRES WILL BUILD FOR SUN-MON WITH A TUTT AXIS FCST TO
STRETCH ACROSS THE ISLANDS TUE-THU.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ALL GUIDANCE SHOW A MUCH DRIER AND STABLE AIR MASS
OVERSPREADING THE REGION OVR THE NEXT 36 HRS. LEADING EDGE OF THIS
DRIER MASS ALREADY WORKING INTO LEEWARD ISLANDS AS SEEN ON BLENDED
TPW IMAGERY. INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
53W WILL GREATLY LIMIT TSTM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND THUS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. FOR THIS
REASON...FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS CANCELLED.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 53W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SAT WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE ALTHOUGH NOT AS MOIST/HUMID AS HAS BEEN OVR
THE LAST FEW DAYS. TUTT LOW TO THE NORTH WILL MOVE WEST AND ALLOW
FOR MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. FCST HELICITY VALUES PRETTY DECENT
SO WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION AND
SQUALLY WEATHER.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE PICTURE SUN WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING
AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FOR SUN-MON. THIS TO KEEP
CONVECTION ISOLATED AT BEST NEXT WEEK.

ASIDE FROM TS BONNIE NEAR THE BAHAMAS...TROP ATLC VERY QUIET AND
MJO PROGNOSIS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A STRONG DOWNWARD PHASE ACROSS
THE WRN HEMISPHERE OVR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS POSSIBLY LASTING
THROUGH THE THIRD WEEK OF AUGUST AS MJO SIGNAL CONTINUES TO
PROPAGATE INTO THE MARITIME CONTINENT/WRN PACIFIC.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES WITH
VCSH TO SHRA POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TIST...TISX...TJPS AND TJSJ
THROUGH 23/18Z. AFT 23/18Z...BRIEF MVFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS TJBQ AND TJMZ IN SHRA OR TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS RUNNING BETWEEN 1.5-2.0 METERS (5-6FT) AT REGIONAL
BUOYS. WINDS MAINLY EASTERLY AT 15 KT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
AND SEAS 5 FT MAXIMUM. OVERALL...PRETTY GOOD WEEKEND EXPECTED
WITH 3-5 FT SEAS AND SMALL CHANCES FOR CONVECTION XCPT FOR SAT
WHEN STRONG CONVECTION POSSIBLE DUE TO PASSAGE OF TROPICAL WAVE.
ONE POSSIBLE BAD DAY OUT OF A FOUR DAY WEEKEND NOT BAD AT ALL
CONSIDERING WHAT WE HAVE GONE THROUGH LATELY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...LA PLATA RIVER AT TOA ALTA CONTINUES TO RISE THIS
MORNING WITH LATEST READING AT 12.13 FEET AND RISING RAPIDLY AND
FLOOD STAGE IS 16 FEET. SITE SPECIFIC AND SERFC GUIDANCE INDICATE
A CREST OF AROUND 14 FT LATER THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ISSUING ANY WARNINGS. ALL OTHER
RIVERS ARE SHOWING FALLING STAGES AT THIS TIME.


&&

.CLIMATE...AT THE SJU LMM INTL ARPT...A TOTAL OF 7.88 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE
BEEN RECORDED SO FAR THIS MONTH. THIS REPRESENTS THE SECOND WETTEST
START TO JULY ON RECORD ONLY BEHIND 1961 WHEN 7.95 INCHES HAD BEEN
RECORDED TO DATE. THE WETTEST JULY ON RECORD WAS ALSO 1961 WHEN 9.35
INCHES WERE RECORDED. 2010 STILL ON TRACK TO BE WETTEST YEAR ON
RECORD AT THE SJU LMM INTL ARPT. THROUGH JULY 22TH...A TOTAL OF
48.32 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE BEEN RECORDED. THIS IS 4.79 INCHES MORE
THAN THE NEXT CLOSEST YEAR SINCE 1958.

AT THE CYRIL E. KING ARPT IN ST. THOMAS...A TOTAL OF 7.32 INCHES
HAVE BEEN RECORDED SO FAR THIS MONTH. THIS REPRESENTS THE WETTEST
START TO JULY ON RECORD. THE WETTEST JULY ON RECORD IS 1958 WHEN
7.41 INCHES WERE RECORDED. WITH ONLY 0.10 INCHES NEEDED TO BREAK THE
RECORD AND NINE DAYS STILL LEFT ON THE CALENDAR MONTH IT IS LIKELY
THAT JULY 2010 WILL END UP AS THE WETTEST JULY ON RECORD. LIKE IN
SAN JUAN...2010 REMAINS ON TRACK TO BE ONE OF THE WETTEST YEARS ON
RECORD. SINCE JAN 1 2010...A TOTAL OF 29.96 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE BEEN
RECORDED AT ST. THOMAS. THIS TOTAL REPRESENTS THE SECOND WETTEST
START TO A YEAR ON RECORD ONLY BEHIND 1960 WHEN 32.85 HAD BEEN
RECORDED TO DATE.

AT THE CHRISTIANSTED ARPT IN ST. CROIX THINGS HAVE NOT BEEN NEARLY
AS WET AS IN SAN JUAN OR ST. THOMAS. THROUGH JULY 22TH...A TOTAL OF
3.91 INCHES HAVE BEEN RECORDED. THIS REPRESENTS THE NINTH WETTEST
START TO JULY ON RECORD. THE WETTEST JULY ON RECORD IS 1958 WHEN
6.34 INCHES WERE RECORDED. 2010 RANKS AS THE EIGHT WETTEST START TO
A YEAR ON RECORD WITH A TOTAL OF 21.82 INCHES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 89 78 / 50 20 60 40
STT 88 79 89 79 / 40 20 70 20

IMPRESSIVE

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
204 PM AST FRI JUL 23 2010

PRC001-003-005-011-013-027-039-043-054-065-071-073-075-081-083-097-
099-101-107-113-115-117-131-141-149-232100-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0307.100723T1804Z-100723T2100Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ISABELA PR-CIALES PR-COAMO PR-FLORIDA PR-JAYUYA PR-ADJUNTAS PR-
OROCOVIS PR-MOROVIS PR-MOCA PR-QUEBRADILLAS PR-SAN SEBASTIAN PR-
UTUADO PR-VILLALBA PR-AGUADILLA PR-AGUADA PR-LAS MARIAS PR-LARES PR-
CAMUY PR-HATILLO PR-JUANA DIAZ PR-PONCE PR-MAYAGUEZ PR-RINCON PR-
ANASCO PR-ARECIBO PR-
204 PM AST FRI JUL 23 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
ISABELA...CIALES...COAMO...FLORIDA...JAYUYA...ADJUNTAS...
OROCOVIS...MOROVIS...MOCA...QUEBRADILLAS...SAN SEBASTIAN...
UTUADO...VILLALBA...AGUADILLA...AGUADA...LAS MARIAS...LARES...
CAMUY...HATILLO...JUANA DIAZ...PONCE...MAYAGUEZ...RINCON...
ANASCO AND ARECIBO

* UNTIL 500 PM AST

* AT 201 PM AST DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING ACROSS
THE ADVISORY AREA.

THESE SHOWERS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF BETWEEN 1
TO 2 INCHES WHICH MAY RESULT IN RAPID RISES IN SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS. ALSO EXPECT BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG GUSTY
WINDS NEAR 35 MPH...LIGHTNING...REDUCED VISIBILITIES...AND PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AT LEAST THROUGH 500 PM AST.

THE HEAVY RAINS COULD ALSO TRIGGER ROCK AND MUDSLIDES IN STEEP
TERRAIN.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

[cycloneye]

FXCA62 TJSJ 231902
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
302 PM AST FRI JUL 23 2010

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK. TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY WITH
SQUALLY WEATHER POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AGAIN FOR NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS MOVED NORTHWARD AND AFFECTED NUMEROUS AREAS IN
PUERTO RICO. THE FIRST CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES
ON SHORE AND AFFECTED THE EASTERN PORTION OF PUERTO RICO INCLUDING
THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA. ANOTHER CLUSTER MOVED ON SHORE AND
AFFECTED THE SOUTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO. ALL THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GENERATED STRONG GUSTS, HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FREQUENT...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGAN TO DISSIPATE OVER THE SAN JUAN
METROPOLITAN AREA...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL

A TUTT LOW NORTH OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO IS DRIVEN BY A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE
NORTH OF 30N. THROUGH 36 HRS THE TUTT WILL RETROGRESS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST/ CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A DRYING TREND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
TONIGHT AS MODELS SUGGEST THE MID LEVEL RIDGE TO STRENGTH. ON
SATURDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE INTERIOR
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...AFT 23/19Z...BRIEF MVFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS TJBQ AND TJMZ IN SHRA OR TSRA. MAINLY VFR CONDS
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES WITH VCSH TO SHRA POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND TIST...TISX...TJPS AND TJSJ THROUGH 23/02Z.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE RANGE OF BETWEEN 3 AND
6 FEET AND WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS. MARINERS SHOAL MONITOR
NWS MARINE BULLETINS AND WARNINGS DUE TO ACTIVE WEATHER. MARINERS
SHOULD EXPECT LOW VISIBILITIES...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND DANGEROUS
CHOPPY SEAS NEAR THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

[cycloneye]

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
PRC001-141-232200-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.W.0075.100723T2003Z-100723T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
403 PM AST FRI JUL 23 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES

IN PUERTO RICO
ADJUNTAS
UTUADO

* UNTIL 600 PM AST

* AT 353 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
HEAVY RAIN OVER NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO. THIS HAS SENT THE RIO GRANDE
DE ARECIBO INTO FLOOD IN UTUADO. THESE FLOOD WATERS WILL MOVE
DOWNSTREAM RAPIDLY AND AFFECT UTUADO BEFORE 4:30 PM AST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

&&

LAT...LON 1836 6673 1823 6672 1823 6681 1832 6677
1834 6676

$$

SNELL

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN

[expat2carib]

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
PRC001-141-232200-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.W.0075.100723T2003Z-100723T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
403 PM AST FRI JUL 23 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES

IN PUERTO RICO
ADJUNTAS
UTUADO

* UNTIL 600 PM AST

* AT 353 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
HEAVY RAIN OVER NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO. THIS HAS SENT THE RIO GRANDE
DE ARECIBO INTO FLOOD IN UTUADO. THESE FLOOD WATERS WILL MOVE
DOWNSTREAM RAPIDLY AND AFFECT UTUADO BEFORE 4:30 PM AST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

&&

LAT...LON 1836 6673 1823 6672 1823 6681 1832 6677
1834 6676

$$

SNELL

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN

Is this from the "new" ULL or still the tail of 97L, Bonny?

[cycloneye]

Is this from the "new" ULL or still the tail of 97L, Bonny?

Is from a combination of the ULL and the last leg of the long tail of Bonnie.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
935 PM AST FRI JUL 23 2010

PRC003-240730-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.W.0014.100724T0135Z-100724T0730Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
AGUADA PR-
935 PM AST FRI JUL 23 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR...
AGUADA MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...

* UNTIL 330 AM AST SATURDAY

* AT 928 PM AST THE SENSOR ON THE CULEBRINAS RIVER AT MARGARITA DAM
WAS RISING PAST 14.6 FEET WHERE THE FLOOD STAGE IS 15 FEET. IT IS
ESTIMATED THAT THE RIVER WILL REACH FLOOD STAGE BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND
WILL CREST AROUND 15.5 FEET. THIS WILL RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF
LOW-LYING AREAS. EXPECT FLOODING OF THE LOW LYING AREAS AROUND
HIGHWAY 115 AND ALSO HIGHWAY 418 IN COLOSO AND NORTH OF THE
MADRE VIEJA BRIDGE.

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS BEEN REPORTED.
STREAM RISES WILL BE SLOW AND FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS
IMMEDIATELY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FLOOD WATERS ARE MOVING DOWN THE CULEBRINAS RIVER FROM MOCA WHERE IT
HAS ALREADY CRESTED LESS THAN ONE FOOT BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 8:15 PM
AST.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
941 PM AST FRI JUL 23 2010

.UPDATE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT AFFECTED THE LOCAL AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...DISSIPATED OR MOVED AWAY. NO SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. DRIER AIR IS MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE EAST
TONIGHT. LATEST SAT ELITE IMAGES SHOWED THIS TREND...WITH MAIN
MOISTURE MOVING WEST AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA. ALSO...LATEST MIMIC
TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMSS INDICATED A SLOE OF DRY AIR EAST OF THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR IS MOVING OVER THE
AREA...LATEST 00Z TJSJ SOUNDING SHOWED PW VALUES OF 2.15.
THEREFORE...STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON MAINLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ISLANDS. MADE THE NECESSARY
ADJUSTMENT TO GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
24/16Z...EXCEPT FOR BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE AT TNCM AND TKPK. AFT 24/16Z
MVFR AT TJMZ IS LIKELY AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND ARE LIKELY IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO. LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE EAST 10 TO 15 KNOTS. ISOLD-SCT TRWS EXPECTED AFT 24/17Z
IN WESTERN PR.