ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Good question Genius. Have been contemplating whether or not they might downgrade this to TD Bonnie at 10. Does not look good right now.

[ROCK]

From learning from all you wonderful people.. The storm has been upgraded from a depression to a TS.. I guess that means we may see a more north/west movement.. Just my amateur opinion..

just because it is upgraded doesnt suggest path...here is the link to the steering layers....storm pressure to the left....1006MB is what we have currently (if that)..click on the most current...this will start you off on your Tropical journey....

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... s-dlm.html

[tailgater]

The best it has looked on IR all day IMHO. Notice the T-storms building quickly to the west that tells me that there is a decrease in the shear. thoughts anyone?

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Looking at the latest loops I'm not sure where the center is but the worst weather is definitely in that blob of convection and it's definitely heading for Broward/Palm Beach counties and in a hurry.

[sphelps8681]

I read in one of your post that you thought the ridge would be to strong and (correct me If I am wrong) but there would be a weakness but the ridge would build back in. Is that still the case? And will the track move more to the left when that happens back to the original NHC track Tx/LA.

I think the ridge will remain very strong. The main factor in the eventual landfall will be center reformations toward convection. When that finally stops...I look for a more westward motion for a while. Whether or not this menas it ends up in W LA...I think is too early to say. I think we will probably know the answer to that tomorrow afternoon or evening.

Thanks so much for your response. Any updates are greatly appreciated.

[Javlin]

I think the LLC is right where this new convective burst is in the middle of the "cdo."

I am in the same belief.If you watch the Loop there is upper rotation and as well est. as the LLC looked earlier today I think it is still close by.My 6-10 hr window back on pg.104 is closing and the sandwich effect should cause a WNW before long ??

[robbielyn]

this is a good loop that starts out as a "visible", then ends up as an "IR"...it makes it easier to guess where the LLC might be as this moment:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rgb.html

Click on this link rockman put up you can easily see the coc and it is now heades wnw its making the turn to catch up to the next plot. right now coordinates are approx 76.7 /23.8

[HURAKAN]

CALC TEST POSTPONED TO MONDAY!!!! Thanks Bonnie!!

[ozonepete]

The best it has looked on IR all day IMHO. Notice the T-storms building quickly to the west that tells me that there is a decrease in the shear. thoughts anyone?

According to the CIMSS analysis, there is shear of about 20 knots to its west until it passes south Florida. But that could be overstated because that shear is coming from the ULL which appears to be moving faster to the west. The faster the ULL pulls away, the lower the shear will go. And yes, I agree with you that this is the best it's looked on IR all day. It has a CDO, and until we find out where the LLC is in relation to it from future scatterometer satellite analyses we can't tell if it may intensify. We just have to wait for the next visible images and/or Recon. (Or a total collapse of the CDO, which of course would indicate it's all over.)

[Bocadude85]

this is a good loop that starts out as a "visible", then ends up as an "IR"...it makes it easier to guess where the LLC might be as this moment:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rgb.html

Click on this link rockman put up you can easily see the coc and it is now heades wnw its making the turn to catch up to the next plot 76.7 /23.8

The only thing I se heading for the next forecast point is a thunderstorm complex.. if there is a LLC its further north towards the deeper convection IMHO

[SouthFloridawx]

Look at the Water Vapor Loop. Bonnie's got some real problems in her future. Every new frame shows her being more and more elongated in overall presentation. Unless Bonnie tightens up the circulation, I wonder if we'll see a Tropical Storm by morning. Any thoughts?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/flash-wv.html

[SFLcane]

This thing is racing towards the NW-WNW...at this rate it will be approach the keys/sfl by early morning.

[ROCK]

CALC TEST POSTPONED TO MONDAY!!!! Thanks Bonnie!!

..I have been trying all day to get in touch with the Commisioners Office Distrcit 2 all day....no one answers the phones? Guess everyone is boarding up....

[robbielyn]

The best it has looked on IR all day IMHO. Notice the T-storms building quickly to the west that tells me that there is a decrease in the shear. thoughts anyone?

According to the CIMSS analysis, there is shear of about 20 knots to its west until it passes south Florida. But that could be overstated because that shear is coming from the ULL which appears to be moving faster to the west. The faster the ULL pulls away, the lower the shear will go. And yes, I agree with you that this is the best it's looked on IR all day. It has a CDO, and until we find out where the LLC is in relation to it from future scatterometer satellite analyses we can't tell if it may intensify. We just have to wait for the next visible images and/or Recon. (Or a total collapse of the CDO, which of course would indicate it's all over.)

Wish I had a way to circle it for you its as clear as day.

[ozonepete]

CALC TEST POSTPONED TO MONDAY!!!! Thanks Bonnie!!

LOL! Don't disappoint me Sandy and tell me a meteorologist like you doesn't like CALC! Just kidding. I'd be happy too.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Look at the Water Vapor Loop. Bonnie's got some real problems in her future. Every new frame shows her being more and more elongated in overall presentation. Unless Bonnie tightens up the circulation, I wonder if we'll see a Tropical Storm by morning. Any thoughts?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/flash-wv.html

Death by SHEAR!!!!!!!!

[SouthFloridawx]

This thing is racing towards the NW-WNW...at this rate it will be approach the keys/sfl by early morning.

I think the elongation of the system is making it appear to be moving faster to the NW. I don't think it's really moving any faster. It's going to pretty much make the next forecast plot.

[Chacor]

...CENTER OF BONNIE APPROACHING THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...NEW
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA...

[wicked_wx_watcher]

ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
1100 PM EDT THU JUL 22 2010

...CENTER OF BONNIE APPROACHING THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...NEW
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 76.5W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SSE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SE OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH TO DEERFIELD BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD
INCLUDING THE ENTIRE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO JUPITER
INLET INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTEREST ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF BONNIE. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST ON FRIDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST. BONNIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND A FASTER FORWARD SPEED ARE FORECAST ON
FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BONNIE IS EXPECTED
TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA ON FRIDAY...AND MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ON THE FLORIDA COAST AND FLORIDA KEYS WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

RAINFALL...BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO
2 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA
KEYS...AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[tgenius]

So I think since Recon isn't getting there until about 1am.. status quo at 11pm,but unless DMAX works wonders.. I will awaken to no Tropical Storm.