ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[HURAKAN]

CALC TEST POSTPONED TO MONDAY!!!! Thanks Bonnie!!

..I have been trying all day to get in touch with the Commisioners Office Distrcit 2 all day....no one answers the phones? Guess everyone is boarding up....

LOL.

In my case, it won't be a problem taking the test tomorrow because I live right next to FIU. But many students drive to the university from neighboring counties but taking the expressway in rainy and windy conditions could be dangerous.

[cycloneye]

Lets not post the advisories here as there is a thread for those.

[Chacor]

FONT13 KNHC 230242
PWSAT3
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
0300 UTC FRI JUL 23 2010

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

[snip]

II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

GFMX 287N 884W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 20(42) 2(44) X(44)
GFMX 287N 884W 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) X(13) X(13)
GFMX 287N 884W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)


That's the Deepwater Horizon spill site. 44% chance of TS force winds in the next 120 hours.

[ozonepete]

So I think since Recon isn't getting there until about 1am.. status quo at 11pm,but unless DMAX works wonders.. I will awaken to no Tropical Storm.

I think you will, but don't trust me. The NHC thinks so too.

[Ivanhater]

New track adjusted eastward to around Nola..here is an excerpt from the latest disco, more northward adjustment may be needed

THE NEW FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED NORTHWARD DURING THE FIRST
72 HR BASED ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION. HOWEVER...IT LIES
SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HR AND SOME
ADDITIONAL NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT MAY BE NECESSARY LATER.

[smw1981]

FONT13 KNHC 230242


- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

GFMX 287N 884W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 20(42) 2(44) X(44)
GFMX 287N 884W 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) X(13) X(13)
GFMX 287N 884W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)


That's the Deepwater Horizon spill site. 44% chance of TS force winds in the next 120 hours.

That would be a change..it was 96 hours earlier... (If I had time, I would try to find it, but unfortunately I don't! It's in one of these threads somewhere!)

[Annie Oakley]

My humble advice to the newer ones on this site-if you want high drama-sit back-don't post-watch-wait.Observe and then learn how to find more info. As any storm develops you will in good time get the first-hand stats. Be patient.
I can assure you that as a storm develops it is as good as any breaking news story-so you have to give the news-breakers their breathe so to speak. It is more exciting that way. There is a momentum that you will see when it gets serious enough for people to take cover. At this point let's let the pros on the board to take over.

[Wx_Warrior]

FWIW

[Chacor]

Well, it's still 44% in the next 96 hours too. Not forecast to receive TS force winds from 96-120 hours.

[smw1981]

New track adjusted eastward to around Nola..here is an excerpt from the latest disco, more northward adjustment may be needed

THE NEW FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED NORTHWARD DURING THE FIRST
72 HR BASED ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION. HOWEVER...IT LIES
SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HR AND SOME
ADDITIONAL NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT MAY BE NECESSARY LATER.

Does "northward" mean "east" in this case? I am confused! Sorry if it's a silly question. (And no, I am not -removed-..I get called into work for even tropical storms and have to stay there for a minimum of 24-36 hours, depending on the intensity, so I never, ever want storms to come my way!)

[Chacor]

I'd take it to mean right of the previous track, so "east" if you would.

[ozonepete]

New track adjusted eastward to around Nola..here is an excerpt from the latest disco, more northward adjustment may be needed

THE NEW FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED NORTHWARD DURING THE FIRST
72 HR BASED ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION. HOWEVER...IT LIES
SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HR AND SOME
ADDITIONAL NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT MAY BE NECESSARY LATER.

I posted earlier how the model runs have been shifting eastward each time. That's because there will be a ridge that's a little stronger than the last few digging into the central U.S. this weekend/early next week. It will be THE big player in where Bonnie winds up on the Gulf coast, and there's no way to call it at this time.

[Bocadude85]

If the center is where the NHC says it is then Bonnie is definately still moving nw and will probably move over Andros Island and possible extreme Miami-Dade county

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

[Cape Verde]

This is simply bad timing. With the storm coming ashore Sunday pm, there is probably no reason to have the office closed on Monday. All the needless panic occurs on Saturday.

[Ivanhater]

Still firing deep convection over the center

[caneman]

Going across So. FLorida as a minimal TS wouldn't be the worse thing, hopefully it would take some steam out of it and take it longer to regain its momentum. Perhaps not get as severe before next landfall. We can hope at least.

[Chacor]

viewtopic.php?f=25&t=108674

Predictions for Bonnie!

[caneman]

[quote="Ivanhater"]Still firing deep convection over the center

You can see the clouds all the way up to Tampa still pushing NW. Seems like Bonnie has her tracks laid for her so far.

[Jagno]

[quote="Ivanhater"]Still firing deep convection over the center

Ivanhater is this the WNW turn they've been expecting that I see near the end of that loop or is it my tired eyes?

[TampaFl]

11:00PM postion. Map courtesy http://www.BoatUS.com