ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[Raininfyr]

Bonnie sure looks tiny. Look at the clouds starting to cover the Florida peninsula. Is that the direction the storm will be heading?

[HURAKAN]

Eager to see what RECON finds although I don't expect any major change in intensity or pressure.

[funster]

No sign of Bonnie weakening as some had suggested earlier. NHC does not mention weakening in latest discussion and even mentions some models now strengthening Bonnie in GOM:

THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS...PERHAPS RESPONDING TO SOME DECREASE IN THE SHEAR...NOW FORECAST BONNIE TO
PEAK NEAR 60 KT OVER THE GULF.

[Chacor]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=25&t=108674

Predictions for Bonnie!

If there is any interest for this...? It was pretty popular the last time I ran it in 2008.

[Ivanhater]

Still firing deep convection over the center

Ivanhater is this the WNW turn they've been expecting that I see near the end of that loop or is it my tired eyes?

I still think it is moving NW, but it should turn wnw very soon, noted by the squish from the NE from the high. However, the damage has been done if you will with the more northerly movement today which is why we are seeing the track adjust north.

[AdamFirst]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1020 PM EDT THU JUL 22 2010

.DISCUSSION...
...TROPICAL STORM BONNIE MAY BRING GUSTY WINDS/HEAVY RAIN TOWARD
DAYBREAK ALONG TREASURE COAST...

THE GRADIENT BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG 30N AND
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 165 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
NASSAU IN THE BAHAMA ISLANDS WILL STRENGTHEN AS BONNIE CONTINUES TO
TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT AROUND 14 MPH (WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE W/NW) OVERNIGHT. RADARS WERE DETECTING SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN
BAHAMA/GRAND BAHAMA AND THE GULF STREAM WATERS BETWEEN SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN BAHAMA ISLANDS. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS SHOWING AREAS OF RAIN MOVING WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN/GRAND
BAHAMA ISLANDS TO BEGIN IMPACTING THE MARTIN SAINT LUCIE COASTAL
AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SPREAD UP THE COAST INTO INDIAN RIVER
COUNTY TOWARD SUNRISE.

EVENING UPDATE SAW CHANGES THAT DEALT WITH TIMING OF WEATHER
IMPACTING THE SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS...WINDS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

[jinftl]

Shift north in highest probability of ts force winds....backs up including Broward county (Hollywood-Fort Lauderdale) in ts warning...down the road looks like a track straight for Deep Water Horizon.

[ConvergenceZone]

No sign of Bonnie weakening as some had suggested earlier. NHC does not mention weakening in latest discussion and even mentions some models now strengthening Bonnie in GOM:

THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS...PERHAPS RESPONDING TO SOME DECREASE IN THE SHEAR...NOW FORECAST BONNIE TO
PEAK NEAR 60 KT OVER THE GULF.

Then why the heck does it look so awful on satellite? I don't get it.....

[wxgirl69]

The sooner Houston is in the clear the better.. I do not want any more storms coming our direction.. I guess I will check back in the morning and hope to see the models keeping it to the East..Sorry folks..If I could have it my way, it would be a fish!!!!

[tailgater]

Starting to show up on radar
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... x&loop=yes

[funster]

No sign of Bonnie weakening as some had suggested earlier. NHC does not mention weakening in latest discussion and even mentions some models now strengthening Bonnie in GOM:

THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS...PERHAPS RESPONDING TO SOME DECREASE IN THE SHEAR...NOW FORECAST BONNIE TO
PEAK NEAR 60 KT OVER THE GULF.

Then why the heck does it look so awful on satellite? I don't get it.....

Looks fine to me for the weak TS it is. Maybe when the storm was starting to turn more wnw, it disrupted the inflow. There is still convection near/around the center which is all Bonnie has really ever had.

[ozonepete]

No sign of Bonnie weakening as some had suggested earlier. NHC does not mention weakening in latest discussion and even mentions some models now strengthening Bonnie in GOM:

THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS...PERHAPS RESPONDING TO SOME DECREASE IN THE SHEAR...NOW FORECAST BONNIE TO
PEAK NEAR 60 KT OVER THE GULF.

Then why the heck does it look so awful on satellite? I don't get it.....

Don't understand why you say that looks awful. It's got a CentralDenseOvercast of pretty tall thunderstorms that seems to be co-locating on and off with the LLC over the last few hours. That's a classic formation for a developing system that is either a depression or a weak tropical storm. It doesn't look anythng like a hurricane because it isn't one.

[Ivanhater]

It actually looks pretty good, it is just a small cyclone. Not a huge storm like Ivan or Katrina. I wonder what the environment will be like in the Gulf as far as the size goes.

[HURAKAN]

Nice loop

[cycloneye]

By looking at that loop it has turned more wnw.

[chzzdekr81]

http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/data/wximagenew/k/KEEPEROFTHEGATE/705.gif?r=1279854948

Nice loop

It looks like it's moving west, but it's probably just an illusion.

[AdamFirst]

I think the WNW motion has begun. Deep convection. beginning to form over the center.

I wonder how Bonnie will react to the buffet that is the Gulf Stream

[cycloneye]

Lets not quote images as it clutters the board,thank you.

[chzzdekr81]

Lets not quote images as it clutters the board,thank you.

I saw it right after I posted it. I edited it and removed the image tags.

[Tropics Guy]

Bonnie sure is a small compact TS, Convection seems to be deepening in the latest frames, may gain some strength before FL landfall with the worst weather in Miami-Dade & Broward counties.............

TG