ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[Brent]

No sign of Bonnie weakening as some had suggested earlier. NHC does not mention weakening in latest discussion and even mentions some models now strengthening Bonnie in GOM:

THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS...PERHAPS RESPONDING TO SOME DECREASE IN THE SHEAR...NOW FORECAST BONNIE TO
PEAK NEAR 60 KT OVER THE GULF.

Then why the heck does it look so awful on satellite? I don't get it.....

What 40 mph TS has EVER looked good? Good looking storms are called hurricanes.

[TwisterFanatic]

Thats some cold cloudtops over the center there.. Also looks like it is starting to turn.

[Wx_Warrior]

Just because the GOM has bubbling waters means Bon will intensify.

[HURAKAN]

A lot of history!!

Bonnie http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Bonnie

The name Bonnie has been used for six tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean. Bonnie is not to be confused with Bonny, which was used in the Pacific Ocean.

1980's Hurricane Bonnie - moved north over the central Atlantic Ocean.
1986's Hurricane Bonnie - a minimal hurricane that hit Beaumont-Port Arthur, Texas, causing light damage.
1992's Hurricane Bonnie - tracked eastward over the Atlantic, striking the Azores as a tropical storm, causing no significant damage.
1998's Hurricane Bonnie - struck Wilmington, North Carolina at just under Category 3 strength on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
2004's Tropical Storm Bonnie - struck the Florida Panhandle, and caused heavy rainfall along the East Coast of the United States.
2010's Tropical Storm Bonnie - currently active

The name Bonnie has also been used for one tropical cyclone in the Western Pacific Ocean.

1978's Tropical Storm Bonnie (T7810, 11W) - struck Vietnam.

The name Bonnie has also been used for two tropical cyclones in the Southwest Pacific Ocean.

1968's Cyclone Bonnie
2002's Cyclone Bonnie

[Hurricane]

Because of the ridge and the WNW movement, shouldn't the track shift south next update??

[HouTXmetro]

If the center is where i think it is South of the Ball of convection this has definitely turned WNW to even Due West

[HouTXmetro]

Because of the ridge and the WNW movement, shouldn't the track shift south next update??

No, this movement was expected

[AdamFirst]

Because of the ridge and the WNW movement, shouldn't the track shift south next update??

No. It's (the storm, that is) not supposed to move south. I think the track stays where it's at.

[caneman]

Movement was forecasted in already.

[hurricaneCW]

She's so tiny, reminds me of Marco but slightly bigger. I wonder if it will expand in the GOM plus micro systems tend to fluctuate greatly in intensity.

[Ivanhater]

Movement still looks like a steady march to S. Florida

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

[Stormcenter]

Is it just me or does Bonnie look she is picking up her forward speed?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

[Ivanhater]

Is just me or does Bonnie look she is picking up her forward speed?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

She's booking it storm. That was forecast though.

[Bocadude85]

Movement still looks like a steady march to S. Florida

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

Yea Ivan I agree still looks on track to clip southern dade county

[Ivanhater]

Really deepening convection

[MWatkins]

At the risk of not getting involved in wobble wars...Bonnie does not look very healthy tonight.

It's getting stretched from the ULL on the west side and the approaching TUTT feature from the east (that Frank2 pointed out, quite nicely, earlier today).

Most of the banding features that were with the storm are gone now, and it's barely hanging on to a relatively small area of moderate to somewhat strong convection.

Tomorrow is going to be a gusty and somewhat rainy day, but I really don't see any significant intensification happening in this atmospheric setup.

Given that this is the diurnal max for this system (it's flared up this time of night the last 3 nights), I think we may have seen the best of Bonnie already.

MW

[Extremeweatherguy]

I don't think we should try and guess the current movement of Bonnie based on nighttime IR images. That is never a good idea unless the storm is a strong hurricane and has a clear eye to follow. Luckily recon will be out there soon to help solve this question. Within a few hours we should have an exact storm direction and know whether Bonnie is still moving NW, or has shifted to WNW or W.

[chzzdekr81]

Because of the ridge and the WNW movement, shouldn't the track shift south next update??

I don't think the track is going to change at all right now. If it continues moving WNW longer than expected, then the models should shift south.

[brunota2003]

I think Recon will find the llc tucked under the SW side of the convection, with most of it still off to the NE (but it does appear to have organized in terms of finally reeling in the convection nice and close to the llc like I was talking about earlier today)

[Extremeweatherguy]

Bonnie's center is *almost* within view of the long range Miami radar...

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... x&loop=yes

As of now though it is still too far out to gather any useful information from (such as movement, center banding, etc).