ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[Ivanhater]

It still looks to be on the same heading almost like the tail of the ULL, noted going over the Peninsula of Florida going NW, tugging Bonnie more NW like the "slingshot" effect and holding the ridge off a bit.

Just a thought late at night so probably wrong

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

[Ivanhater]

[blp]

Thanks for your insight MW. My only concern is that these small systems tend to spin up quick just when they get a small opportunity. I don't think it will happen but it makes for interesting tracking.

At the risk of not getting involved in wobble wars...Bonnie does not look very healthy tonight.

It's getting stretched from the ULL on the west side and the approaching TUTT feature from the east (that Frank2 pointed out, quite nicely, earlier today).

Most of the banding features that were with the storm are gone now, and it's barely hanging on to a relatively small area of moderate to somewhat strong convection.

Tomorrow is going to be a gusty and somewhat rainy day, but I really don't see any significant intensification happening in this atmospheric setup.

Given that this is the diurnal max for this system (it's flared up this time of night the last 3 nights), I think we may have seen the best of Bonnie already.

MW

[ROCK]

Shes made the turn IMO.....LLC on the SW side of the convection....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-ir2.html

[TwisterFanatic]

Shes made the turn IMO.....LLC on the SW side of the convection....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-ir2.html

I think your right..

[Sanibel]

Odd little ULL-engulfed storm headed right towards us. Haven't seen a track like this that I can remember. Good thing it isn't a big roller.

[Bocadude85]

she doesnt look to bad in that loop ivan.. still appears to be heading NW though

[ConvergenceZone]

At the risk of not getting involved in wobble wars...Bonnie does not look very healthy tonight.

It's getting stretched from the ULL on the west side and the approaching TUTT feature from the east (that Frank2 pointed out, quite nicely, earlier today).

Most of the banding features that were with the storm are gone now, and it's barely hanging on to a relatively small area of moderate to somewhat strong convection.

Tomorrow is going to be a gusty and somewhat rainy day, but I really don't see any significant intensification happening in this atmospheric setup.

Given that this is the diurnal max for this system (it's flared up this time of night the last 3 nights), I think we may have seen the best of Bonnie already.

MW

That's what I've been trying to say as well Mike, but everyone keeps telling me that "no, she looks just fine"... I guess it's just one of those agree to disagree scenerios. The elongated presentation and small cluster of convection doesn't point to a intensifying storm. It it doesn't look healthy to me either.

[Florida1118]

Will recon Be done for the 2am? and, do you think I should stay up for the 5am or further?

[Ivanhater]

Interesting tidbit about intensity and maybe why the models are not "seeing" bonnie. Could be because she is so small

Dr. Masters

I'm inclined to take the predictions of global and dynamical models with a large grain of salt. When I reviewed the latest model runs (18Z and 12Z), it was apparent that none of the models had a good initialization of Bonnie's structure. Bonnie has a relatively small circulation, so it's easy for the models' initialization to act like there isn't much of a storm there. Without accurate starting conditions, any model will have trouble producing an accurate forecast. NHC has a good summary of the different forecast models they use.

[dixiebreeze]

22/2345 UTC 23.3N 76.1W T2.5/2.5 BONNIE -- Atlantic

[Sanibel]

My eye says it's a little right of track and should clip the southern Glades.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[poof121]

Looks like we have a feeder band forming...

http://aviationweather.gov/adds/satellite/displaySat.php?region=CARIB&isingle=mult_big&itype=ir

[Ivanhater]

These small systems can ramp up quickly, so needs to be watched overnight.

[americanre1]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

This is my own opinion but I think she is really starting to get her act together, not all TC are buzzsaws in shape. I wouldn't be surprised when RECON gets in there they find sustained winds around 55 to 60 MPH with gust up to 80. This system is just getting more and more compact thanks to the ULL and the ridge building in above her. This system IMHO has a chance to catch everyone by surprise and get to a Cat 2 in the GoM.

[Stormcenter]

IMO this is probably the best she's looked.

Latest

[Extremeweatherguy]

Latest

Looks just like the classic tropical storm symbol:

[TwisterFanatic]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

This is my own opinion but I think she is really starting to get her act together, not all TC are buzzsaws in shape. I wouldn't be surprised when RECON gets in there they find sustained winds around 55 to 60 MPH with gust up to 80. This system is just getting more and more compact thanks to the ULL and the ridge building in above her. This system IMHO has a chance to catch everyone by surprise and get to a Cat 2 in the GoM.

I actually kinda agree with this... These small storms are pesky..

[Bocadude85]

IN the last 20mins it seems like the winds have really started to pick up here.