ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[ConvergenceZone]

Now I will say that the last 2 frames of Bonnie look good, but it remains to be seen if this is a trend or just a temporary visual improvement.

[Plant grower]

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

This is my own opinion but I think she is really starting to get her act together, not all TC are buzzsaws in shape. I wouldn't be surprised when RECON gets in there they find sustained winds around 55 to 60 MPH with gust up to 80. This system is just getting more and more compact thanks to the ULL and the ridge building in above her. This system IMHO has a chance to catch everyone by surprise and get to a Cat 2 in the GoM.

WOW cat 2 you are really going way out on the limb with this one, and what do you believe the % chance of that is ?

[Sanibel]

Don't know what to think about intensity. The ULL and Atlantic upper should be knocking it down but it formed anyway. Pesky little bugger. Should pass just to our south tomorrow. Nice moonlit sky and cool breezes here now.

[LSU2001]

Bonnie is certainly starting to get the classic shape. If she can avoid land interaction and squirt through the straights and hit the very hot water in the gulf then she stands a good chance of intensifying in the gulf. It appears that some of the shear is supposed to relax a bit and conditions may get somewhat more favorable. I personally think a major is out of the picture but a minimal cane is very possible.
tim


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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ConvergenceZone]

Sanibel, where are you? Are you in the Keys?


Edit: oops that's right, you are in Sanibel, DUH..LOL...I forgot sorry...Nevermind....

[americanre1]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

This is my own opinion but I think she is really starting to get her act together, not all TC are buzzsaws in shape. I wouldn't be surprised when RECON gets in there they find sustained winds around 55 to 60 MPH with gust up to 80. This system is just getting more and more compact thanks to the ULL and the ridge building in above her. This system IMHO has a chance to catch everyone by surprise and get to a Cat 2 in the GoM.

WOW cat 2 you are really going way out on the limb with this one, and what do you believe the % chance of that is ?

Its low about 10 to 20 percent, if she keeps this act up that she is going through right now. Probably only be a Cat 1 at land fall but you never know with these small systems.

I just know Rita was another system that wasn't suppose to be much and look what happened with her.

[Bocadude85]

Sanibel, where are you? Are you in the Keys?

Im going to guess Sanibel Island off of Ft Myers

[Steve]

>>I think your right..

He is. Bonnie telegraphed it before I went to dinner. Rock noted it. I had it in my post at [quote=Steve]6:05 pm[/quote] Rarely is a pending turn that obvious. Everyone should have seen the bend back WNW coming from a mile away. :yes:

[ConvergenceZone]

Sanibel, where are you? Are you in the Keys?

Im going to guess Sanibel Island off of Ft Myers

Yea, I realized after I posted that. I had a cat named Sanibel, and so I keep forgetting Sanibel is actually from Sanibel,

[supercane]

Will recon Be done for the 2am? and, do you think I should stay up for the 5am or further?

Recon just finished crossing the Florida peninsula. The plane will probably be in the vicinity, but likely will not have completed its pattern through the storm and therefore would not have a vortex message in time for the 2am advisory. If you're wanting to know whether the center is co-located with the convection, recon should give us an answer within 1 1/2 to 2 hr. This will resolve the question of both movement and intensity.

[Sanibel]

Sanibel, where are you? Are you in the Keys?


Edit: oops that's right, you are in Sanibel, DUH..LOL...I forgot sorry...Nevermind....

Enter Sanibel and zoom-out:


http://www.satelliteviews.net/my-house.htm




.

[Bocadude85]

I am starting to think that the LLC is indeed under that deep convection

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

[poof121]

I am starting to think that the LLC is indeed under that deep convection

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

When I followed the rgb loop earlier from day to night, it definitely looked like it.

[americanre1]

I am starting to think that the LLC is indeed under that deep convection

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

I've been thinking that for the last couple hours and she is definitely getting her act together. I think the NHC might have egg on their face in the morning with this system. IMHO

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Sanibel]

Should be visible on Miami long range in a few hours. Sleepy time now.

[HURAKAN]

Can't wait for RECON to get there!

[americanre1]

What are you thinking HURAKAN???

[Bocadude85]

I am starting to think that the LLC is indeed under that deep convection

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

I've been thinking that for the last couple hours and she is definitely getting her act together. I think the NHC might have egg on their face in the morning with this system. IMHO

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Also appears that Bonnie has turned toward the wnw now... looks to pass a little north of her next forecast point

[boca]

What time will recon get their 2am?

[HURAKAN]

What are you thinking HURAKAN???

Looks intriguing!!!