ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[Stormcenter]

I would think it's safe to say that recon. may find a strenghthening Bonnie.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12

[jlauderdal]

took a few hours off, read the last 3 pages, saw its looking real bad too its taking on the comma shape, funny how bonnie can change in 2 hours..wherever the center is that intense convection is heading right at south florida mainland and looking impressive, lets see if it holds together

[Ivanhater]

With the current trend, S. Florida news will be in a tizzy tomorrow morning

[AdamFirst]

What time will recon get their 2am?

They're just arriving now. They'll get in the thick of things around that time

[jhpigott]

Man, is she tiny. Wondering up here in around West Palm Beach if we will be inside her convective envelope? I think it will be close.

[Lifesgud2]

Very interesting how everyone has an opinion, however you cant mess with MN. Looks better every minute.

[StarmanHDB]

Currently in scenic Coconut Creek, Florida....
The sky is covered in a very thick opaque haze. The moonlight looks like a high intensity searchlight desperately trying to radiate through the murky haze. Thick clouds carried along by breezy winds are blowing in from the ESE. Still warm and humid, but the wind has an occasional ever so slight incredibly brief "puff" of coolness. By the way, very beautiful red sunset sky!

[Lifesgud2]

Currently in scenic Coconut Creek, Florida....
The sky is covered in a very thick opaque haze. The moonlight looks like a high intensity searchlight desperately trying to radiate through the murky haze. Thick clouds carried along by breezy winds are blowing in from the ESE. Still warm and humid, but the wind has an occasional ever so slight incredibly brief "puff" of coolness. By the way, very beautiful red sunset sky!

Funny, I am in Weston, and its pouring. Wind out of the NE at 17knts

[americanre1]

I would think it's safe to say that recon. may find a strenghthening Bonnie.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12

Looking at that, I wouldn't be shocked to see a pin hole size eye form there and this turn into something none of the models forecasted. Does this sound strangely familiar?? 2005 redone.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Cyclenall]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

This is my own opinion but I think she is really starting to get her act together, not all TC are buzzsaws in shape. I wouldn't be surprised when RECON gets in there they find sustained winds around 55 to 60 MPH with gust up to 80. This system is just getting more and more compact thanks to the ULL and the ridge building in above her. This system IMHO has a chance to catch everyone by surprise and get to a Cat 2 in the GoM.

WOW cat 2 you are really going way out on the limb with this one, and what do you believe the % chance of that is ?

Wxman57 predicted that two days ago.

TS Bonnie is looking really good and it's not startling either since it is a tiny system which we know can fluctuate rapidly. The models are probably not going to pin this one down well I think but that's a feeling I have.

Recon will be very interesting for sure.

[funster]

Starting to look healthy now. Recon should be interesting. Maybe they will at least find a pressure drop.

[Ivanhater]

Hot towers noted

[americanre1]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

This is my own opinion but I think she is really starting to get her act together, not all TC are buzzsaws in shape. I wouldn't be surprised when RECON gets in there they find sustained winds around 55 to 60 MPH with gust up to 80. This system is just getting more and more compact thanks to the ULL and the ridge building in above her. This system IMHO has a chance to catch everyone by surprise and get to a Cat 2 in the GoM.

WOW cat 2 you are really going way out on the limb with this one, and what do you believe the % chance of that is ?

And to tell you the truth this is my optimistic forecast and not my pessimistic one. For all the people that have been on here for years would remember how I use to be under my old name Americanrebel. So I am trying to be more careful with not going with my pessimistic gut feeling.

[Wx_Warrior]

Come on guys...2005 redone? Because little TS bonnie looks decent now & moving super fast?

EDIT: Now I know why

[Stormcenter]

It seems as so she has actually gotten even smaller.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12

[jhpigott]

Here she comes http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... X&loop=yes

looks like she (for now) is heading just north of due west with the upper keys, lower dade county in her sights.

[boca]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-avn.html

I'm thinking a Dade/Broward line landfall, not South Dade

[Plant grower]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

This is my own opinion but I think she is really starting to get her act together, not all TC are buzzsaws in shape. I wouldn't be surprised when RECON gets in there they find sustained winds around 55 to 60 MPH with gust up to 80. This system is just getting more and more compact thanks to the ULL and the ridge building in above her. This system IMHO has a chance to catch everyone by surprise and get to a Cat 2 in the GoM.

WOW cat 2 you are really going way out on the limb with this one, and what do you believe the % chance of that is ?

And to tell you the truth this is my optimistic forecast and not my pessimistic one. For all the people that have been on here for years would remember how I use to be under my old name Americanrebel. So I am trying to be more careful with not going with my pessimistic gut feeling.

Yes it would not surpise me either I have also seen so many storms blow up from out of no where when they were not forecasted to

[jlauderdal]

With the current trend, S. Florida news will be in a tizzy tomorrow morning

they get in tizzy the first sign of anything coming within 300 miles of here, channel 7 had 6 reporters on it last night, funny thing is they had one in key west and one in marathon because we know things will be so much different 30 miles up hwy 1

[CourierPR]

I once remember former NHC Director, Max Mayfield, saying in an interview that his nightmare was having a strengthening storm near land with little warning time.